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八大首席论汇市：“破7”后人民币汇率怎么走
2019-08-06 08:27:44 来源：
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“虽然近期受到外部不确定性因素影响，人民币汇率有所波动，但我对人民币继续作为强势货币充满信心。”在8月5日人民币汇率“破7”的市场节点，央行行长易纲再次给市场派发“定心丸”。
与此同时，市场也关心，未来汇率将怎么走？人民币汇率波动又将取决于哪些方面？8月5日，多家机构首席经济学家对《证券日报》记者表示，无须担心人民币会出现过度贬值，从近期的基本面、预期面等方面均可以得到体现。
交通银行首席经济学家连平：
宏观政策逆周期调节资源充沛
在外部较强不确定性冲击下，人民币汇率“破7”是预期中的，但不应该把“7”这个关口看得太重。从基本面情况看，汇率出现一些波动，与实体经济本身运行的情况基本上是吻合的。事实上，一个时期以來，人民币对一篮子货币汇率仍然保持基本稳定。关键是资本流动保持了总体上平衡。
所谓“破7”关口并没有多大的实际意义。尤其是我国的汇率制度已经是供求关系影响下的有管理的浮动汇率制。受供求关系和市场因素的影响，人民币会出现一定程度的贬值，未来可能也会有一定程度的升值，都是“浮动汇率制”下汇率的正常表现，因此不必太在意所谓“7”的关口。
由于中国经济整体运行平稳，“经济增长保持在6%-6.5%之间”、“CPI控制在3%以内”等一系列指标会基本实现。在此情况下，人民币汇率并没有出现持续大幅度贬值的基础和条件，中国经济的基本面，对于支撑汇率的基本稳定还是会发挥积极的作用，经济增长的潜力和韧劲正在逐步发挥。下半年到明年，在逆周期宏观政策推动下，内需增长、包括投资和消费都可能保持平稳运行，应该会对汇率稳定发挥积极作用。
中国宏观政策的逆周期调节资源比较充沛，政策发挥作用的空间比较大等等，这一系列的因素将会有助于人民币汇率在未来在合理均衡汇率水平上下保持基本稳定。未來人民币汇率会有波动，但不会出现持续大幅度贬值。
方正证券首席经济学家颜色：
有充足货币政策工具对冲
第一，人民币汇率“破7”，并不是守得住守不住的问题。我国的外汇储备还有3万亿元以上，总体而言国际收支大体上是平衡的，所以汇率短期之内并不是守不住。“破7”主要还是顺应市场的变化，因为人民币中间价的定价机制中越来越引入市场化的因素，如果始终进行干预，不让贬值的话，会白白耗费掉大量的外汇储备，同时扭曲了市场，妨碍汇率作为一个自动平衡器的作用。这也是尊重市场，减少干预，允许汇率在一定范围内自由浮动的一个表现。
第二，这也是应对日益加剧的中美经贸摩擦，防止美国突然加征关税对中国企业的过度影响，防止企业出现经营困难，导致就业压力过于增大。允许人民币汇率“破7”，也是对冲中美贸易风险的一个重要的举措，有支持企业正常经营和出口，稳定就业这方面的考量。
从长远来看，我觉得我国对人民币汇率是有充足的工具可以进行干预，如果必要的话。不用担心人民币过于贬值，所以人民银行、外管部门都有充足的货币政策的工具加以对冲。
前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙：
保持定力 采取合适的汇率政策
今年以来，人民币相对于美元有所贬值，但是从长的周期来看，人民币相对于美元其实是升值的。在2005年汇改刚开始，人民币和美元的汇率是8以上，最高人民币升值到6左右，现在出现了一定的贬值，回到7。实际上，今年以来，人民币相对于美元的汇率中间价贬值仅有0.53%，远远小于其他新兴市场货币（像阿根廷比索、土耳其里拉等货币）的贬值幅度，在新兴市场货币中属于较稳健的货币，走势强于欧元、英镑等其他储备货币。
从基本面来看，人民币汇率相对于美元并不具备长期贬值基础。一方面中国经济整体增速平稳，增长结构继续优化，中国经济增速在全球主要资本市场里面处于较高水平，这是人民币长期走势的一个重要支撑。近两年，外资通过各种渠道进入到中国的股市、债市，也说明了外资对于中国经济长期增长趋势的看好。另一方面，在美联储降息之后，周边央行纷纷采取宽松的货币政策，迎来降息潮，而中国央行没有跟随降息，保持了定力，根据自身的状况采取合适的汇率政策。从货币政策来看，人民币不具备快速贬值的基础，再加上我国外汇储备充足，仍然高达3万亿美元以上，这为人民币汇率提供了强力的支撑。
民生银行首席研究员温彬：
汇率未来还会呈双向波动走势
央行在加强与市场的沟通和互动，起到稳定市场预期的作用。下阶段，一方面下半年虽然面临经济下行压力及外部不确定性，但是国内整体的经济的势头还是保持了稳中有进；另一方面，进一步深化改革开放供给侧改革。此外，国家实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，政策空间也比较大。所以，下半年宏观经济保持会保持平稳运行。同时，我国的国际收支状况也总体平衡，金融风险可控。
因此，人民币不存在贬值的基础。同时。可以看到美国到今年末应该还有降息的空间。在这样的背景下，美元指数未来会进一步走软。人民币相对美元而言，目前来说，人民币一揽子汇率还是比较平稳的，对美元也不存在贬值的基础。但是随着人民币汇率市场化的程度越来越高，人民币汇率弹性也会逐步增强，未来还会呈双向波动的走势。
华泰证券首席宏观研究员李超：
关键看是否出现大规模资本流出
汇率不存在所谓保七保八底线，不存在一个明确需要调控的汇率点位，关键是是否出现大规模的资本流出。目前保持人民币汇率弹性有助于稳增长和保就业，减少关税对企业冲击。汇率作为中介目标，没必要必守某个点，关键是不要出现大规模资本流出。我们认为人民币汇率受预期影响较大，资本流出与汇率贬值容易形成负反馈，资本越流出，汇率越贬值，而汇率越贬值，资本越流出。因此，一旦资本大幅流出，央行可能加强调控，进而推动汇率出现升值拐点。
华创证券首席宏观分析师张瑜：
合理波动性突破利好人民币汇率
人民币“破7”是人民币弹性和波动性的进一步的实质性提升，这个对人民币来说是好事情，挑战不会特别大。人民币汇率贬值一般有三个层面，基本面，预期面和交易面，“三面”统一，惯性最强。当下我国经济的基本面没有恶化，同时贬值预期比较稳定，只是交易层面的一个变化，是惯性最弱的情况。
未来还是看经济。去年下半年到今年年初，其实经济下行压力下行速度最快的时候已经基本过去了，包括我国的权益市场，其实风险定价也基本到位。但是美国无论美股还是美国经济都是在拐点，所以相对的走势来说，其实是利好人民币汇率的，包括现在中美息差这么阔，这都是利好人民币汇率的。
所以长期来看7这个点位没有任何的意义，它就是个整数位。那么在这样的情况下，选择做了这样的一个合理的波动性突破，对人民币的弹性等于是进一步的实质性提升了。
国盛证券首席宏观分析师熊园：
人民币断崖式下跌可能性很低
事实上，央行对“破7”已经做好了准备。6月份以来，央行前行长周小川和易纲已经相继表态“没必要守7”。今天央行的答记者问也指出：人民币汇率“破7”，这个“7”不是年龄，过去就回不来了，也不是堤坝，一旦被冲破大水就会一泻千里；“7”更像水库的水位，丰水期的时候高一些，到了枯水期的时候又会降下来，有涨有落，都是正常的。
往后看，人民币断崖式下跌的可能性很低。一方面，央行再次重申：有经验、有信心、有能力保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。另一方面，美联储日前启动了10年来首次降息，预计年内还会降息1-2次，美元大概率趋弱。
东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青：
“破7”不会改变外资流入趋势
人民币“破7”是市场力量驱动的结果，也体现出当前人民币汇率更加具有弹性。
当前人民币出现一轮急跌，更多地体现为市场情绪的快速释放过程，并不具有可持续性。更重要的是，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定仍是监管层的核心政策目标，且当前央行政策工具箱丰富，我们判断接下来央行或将通过市场沟通、逆周期因子调节等方式，适度调控人民币汇率波动幅度。
综合考虑当前外部风险演化及国内宏观经济运行态势，以及监管层对外汇市场的调控能力，未来一段时期人民币并不存在持续大幅贬值基础。
人民币“破7”，短期来看会让我国出口商品价格更具竞争力，但考虑到这种贬值过程难以持续，因此对出口的提振作用整体有限。我们也认为，监管层接下来将会适时出手，稳定市场预期，由此“破7”对资本市场的影响将处于可控状态，也不会改变外资流入我国债市、股市的整体趋势。
经过判断，考虑到未来人民币汇率“失控”的可能性很低，本次“破7”不会对央行货币政策产生明显影响。未来一段时期，央行将主要依据国内宏观经济走势，综合考虑内、外部平衡，展开货币政策预调、微调操作，边际宽松仍是基本趋势。（记者 刘 琪 见习记者 宓 迪）
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Eight chiefs on the exchange market: How to get the RMB exchange rate after "breaking 7"
2019-08-06 08:27:44 Source: Securities Daily
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“Although the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated due to external uncertainties recently, I am full of confidence that the RMB will continue to be a strong currency.” On August 5, the RMB exchange rate “breaks 7” market node, the central bank governor Yi Gang once again Distribute the "reassuring pills" to the market.
At the same time, the market is also concerned about how the exchange rate will go in the future. What aspects of RMB exchange rate fluctuations will depend on? On August 5th, a number of institutional chief economists told Securities Daily that there is no need to worry about the excessive depreciation of the RMB, which can be reflected in the recent fundamentals and expectations.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications:
Macroeconomic policy counter-cyclical adjustment of abundant resources
Under the impact of strong external uncertainty, the RMB exchange rate “breaking 7” is expected, but the “7” barrier should not be taken too seriously. From the fundamental situation, there are some fluctuations in the exchange rate, which is basically consistent with the operation of the real economy itself. In fact, for a period of time, the exchange rate of the renminbi against a basket of currencies has remained basically stable. The key is that capital flows maintain an overall balance.
The so-called "breaking 7" mark does not have much practical significance. In particular, China's exchange rate system is already a managed floating exchange rate system under the influence of supply and demand. Affected by the relationship between supply and demand and market factors, the renminbi will depreciate to a certain extent, and there may be a certain degree of appreciation in the future. It is a normal performance of the exchange rate under the “floating exchange rate system”, so it is not necessary to care too much about the so-called “7” barrier. .
As the overall economic performance of the Chinese economy is stable, a series of indicators such as “economic growth is maintained between 6% and 6.5%” and “CPI is controlled within 3%” will be basically realized. Under this circumstance, the RMB exchange rate has not shown the basis and conditions for sustained and substantial depreciation. The fundamentals of the Chinese economy will play a positive role in supporting the basic stability of the exchange rate. The potential and tenacity of economic growth are gradually exerting. From the second half of next year to next year, driven by the counter-cyclical macro-policy, domestic demand growth, including investment and consumption, may remain stable and should play a positive role in exchange rate stability.
China's macroeconomic policy has more abundant countercyclical adjustment resources, and the space for policy play is relatively large. This series of factors will help the RMB exchange rate to remain basically stable in the future at a reasonable and balanced exchange rate level. In the future, the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate, but there will be no sustained significant depreciation.
Founder Securities Chief Economist Color:
Have sufficient monetary policy tools to hedge
First, the RMB exchange rate “breaks 7” is not a problem that cannot be kept. China's foreign exchange reserves still have more than 3 trillion yuan. In general, the balance of payments is generally balanced, so the exchange rate is not unstoppable in the short term. “Broken 7” is mainly in line with the changes in the market, because the pricing mechanism of the RMB middle price is increasingly introducing market factors. If it is always intervened and will not be devalued, it will consume a lot of foreign exchange reserves and distorted the market. , hindering the exchange rate as an automatic balancer. This is also a manifestation of respecting the market, reducing interventions, and allowing the exchange rate to float freely within a certain range.
Second, this is also to cope with the growing Sino-US economic and trade frictions, prevent the excessive impact of the sudden increase in tariffs on Chinese companies, prevent enterprises from operating difficulties, and lead to excessive employment pressure. Allowing the RMB exchange rate to “break 7” is also an important measure to hedge the trade risks between China and the United States. It has the consideration of supporting the normal operation and export of enterprises and stabilizing employment.
In the long run, I feel that China has sufficient tools for the RMB exchange rate to intervene if necessary. There is no need to worry about the devaluation of the renminbi, so the People's Bank of China and the foreign management department have sufficient tools for monetary policy to hedge.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund:
Maintain a force, adopt an appropriate exchange rate policy
Since the beginning of this year, the renminbi has depreciated against the US dollar, but from a long cycle, the renminbi has appreciated against the US dollar. At the beginning of the exchange reform in 2005, the exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar was 8 or more, and the highest RMB appreciated to around 6. Now there is a certain depreciation and return to 7. In fact, since the beginning of this year, the depreciation of the central parity of the renminbi against the US dollar has been only 0.53%, far less than the depreciation of other emerging market currencies (such as the Argentine peso, the Turkish lira, etc.), which is more stable in emerging market currencies. Currency, the trend is stronger than other reserve currencies such as the euro and the pound.
From a fundamental point of view, the RMB exchange rate does not have a long-term depreciation basis relative to the US dollar. On the one hand, China's overall economic growth rate is stable, and the growth structure continues to be optimized. China's economic growth rate is at a relatively high level in the world's major capital markets, which is an important support for the long-term trend of the RMB. In the past two years, foreign capital has entered China's stock market and bond market through various channels, which also shows that foreign capital is optimistic about the long-term growth trend of China's economy. On the other hand, after the Fed cut interest rates, the surrounding central banks adopted loose monetary policies and ushered in a wave of interest rate cuts. The Chinese central bank did not follow the interest rate cuts, maintained its strength, and adopted appropriate exchange rate policies according to its own situation. From the perspective of monetary policy, the renminbi does not have the basis for rapid depreciation. In addition, China's foreign exchange reserves are still sufficient, still up to more than 3 trillion US dollars, which provides strong support for the RMB exchange rate.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank:
Exchange rate will also show two-way fluctuations in the future
The central bank is strengthening communication and interaction with the market to stabilize market expectations. In the next stage, on the one hand, despite the downward pressure on the economy and external uncertainties in the second half of the year, the momentum of the overall domestic economy has remained steady and positive; on the other hand, the supply-side reform of reform and opening up has been further deepened. In addition, the country implements a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and the policy space is also relatively large. Therefore, the macro economy will maintain a stable operation in the second half of the year. At the same time, China's international balance of payments situation is also balanced, and financial risks are controllable.
Therefore, there is no basis for the devaluation of the renminbi. Simultaneously. It can be seen that there should be room for interest rate cuts in the United States by the end of this year. In this context, the US dollar index will further weaken in the future. In terms of the renminbi relative to the US dollar, at present, the renminbi exchange rate is still relatively stable, and there is no basis for depreciation against the US dollar. However, with the increasing degree of marketization of the RMB exchange rate, the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate will gradually increase, and there will be a two-way fluctuation in the future.
Li Chao, chief macro researcher of Huatai Securities:
The key is to see if there is a large-scale capital outflow
There is no such thing as the so-called guaranteed seven-guarantee bottom line. There is no exchange rate point that needs to be regulated. The key is whether there is a large-scale capital outflow. At present, maintaining the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate will help stabilize growth and protect employment, and reduce the impact of tariffs on enterprises. As an intermediary target, there is no need to keep a certain point. The key is not to have large-scale capital outflows. We believe that the RMB exchange rate is greatly affected by expectations. Capital outflows and exchange rate depreciation tend to form negative feedback. The more capital flows out, the more the exchange rate depreciates, and the more the exchange rate depreciates, the more capital flows out. Therefore, once the capital outflows, the central bank may strengthen regulation and control, thereby pushing the exchange rate to appreciate.
Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities:
Reasonable volatility breaks through the favorable RMB exchange rate
The renminbi “breaking 7” is a further substantial increase in the flexibility and volatility of the renminbi. This is a good thing for the renminbi and the challenge will not be particularly large. The depreciation of the RMB exchange rate generally has three levels, the fundamentals, the expected face and the trading face. The “three sides” are unified and the inertia is the strongest. At present, the fundamentals of China's economy have not deteriorated, and the expectation of depreciation is relatively stable. It is only a change at the transaction level and the weakest inertia.
The future depends on the economy. From the second half of last year to the beginning of this year, in fact, the downward trend of the downward pressure on the economy has basically passed, including China’s equity market. In fact, risk pricing is basically in place. However, both the US stock market and the US economy are at a turning point, so the relative trend is actually a positive for the RMB exchange rate, including the current wide spread between China and the United States, which is good for the RMB exchange rate.
So in the long run, this point has no meaning. It is an integer. Under such circumstances, choosing to make such a reasonable volatility breakthrough, the elasticity of the renminbi is equivalent to further substantial improvement.
Xiong Yuan, chief macro analyst of Guosheng Securities:
The possibility of a renminbi break is very low
In fact, the central bank is ready for the “breaking 7”. Since June, the central bank’s former governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Yi Gang have consistently stated that “no need to keep 7”. Today, the central bank’s answer to the reporter’s question also pointed out that the RMB exchange rate “breaks 7”. This “7” is not an age. It will not come back in the past, nor is it a dam. Once it is broken, it will smash thousands of miles; “7” is more like a reservoir. The water level is higher during the high-water period, and will fall down when it is dry, and it will be normal if it rises and falls.
Looking back, the possibility of a renminbi fall is very low. On the one hand, the central bank once again reiterated that it has the experience, confidence and ability to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. On the other hand, the Fed has launched a rate cut for the first time in 10 years. It is expected that interest rates will be cut 1-2 times during the year, and the US dollar will become weaker.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng:
“Breaking 7” will not change the trend of foreign capital inflow
The renminbi “breaking 7” is the result of market forces, and it also shows that the current RMB exchange rate is more flexible.
The current sharp decline in the renminbi is more reflected in the rapid release of market sentiment and is not sustainable. More importantly, maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level is still the core policy goal of the regulatory authorities. The current central bank policy toolbox is rich. We judge that the central bank will adopt market communication and countercyclical factor adjustment. Moderately regulate the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate.
Considering the current external risk evolution and the domestic macroeconomic operation situation, as well as the regulatory ability of the regulatory authorities to regulate the foreign exchange market, there is no continuous significant depreciation of the RMB in the coming period.
The renminbi "breaking 7" will make China's export commodity prices more competitive in the short run, but considering that this devaluation process is difficult to sustain, the overall boost to exports is limited. We also believe that the regulatory layer will then take timely action to stabilize market expectations, so the impact of “breaking 7” on the capital market will be in a state of control, and will not change the overall trend of foreign capital flowing into China's bond market and stock market.
After judging, considering the possibility that the RMB exchange rate will be “out of control” in the future, this “breaking 7” will not have a significant impact on the central bank’s monetary policy. In the coming period, the central bank will mainly consider the domestic macroeconomic trends, comprehensively consider the internal and external balances, and carry out monetary policy pre-adjustment and fine-tuning operations. Marginal easing is still the basic trend. (Reporter Liu Qi Trainee Reporter 宓di)
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