Split Deepens in Iran as Rafsanjani Family Targeted (Update2)
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By Henry Meyer and Ladane Nasseri
June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Splits within Iran’s ruling elite deepened after police arrested relatives of an ex-president and Parliament’s speaker said that most Iranians questioned President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s electoral victory.
Security forces detained five relatives of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the most influential politicians in the country, state media said yesterday. Bolstering the opposition, Speaker Ali Larijani, who served as Iran’s nuclear negotiator until 2007, criticized the top election body for siding with Ahmadinejad and said most Iranians don’t accept the results.
“There is some serious dissatisfaction within the ranks,” said Ilan Berman, an analyst with the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington. “Anytime a regime begins to eat its own, it signals significant transformation.”
Security forces deployed in Tehran to prevent further protests after hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets during more than a week of demonstrations that saw at least 17 people killed, according to the government. Police arrested as many as 457 people during clashes in the city on June 20, Agence France-Presse cited state radio as saying today.
Rafsanjani is believed to be rallying support within the clerical establishment for opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, 67, who claims the government rigged the June 12 vote.
“The ball is in the opposition’s court,” said Kaveh-Cyrus Sanandaji, an Iran expert from Oxford University in the U.K. “The supreme leader and Ahmadinejad have proven they are willing to use violence against all dissent.”
Unprecedented Challenge
The protests, the largest since the Islamic Revolution that ousted the shah in 1979, and the divisions within the regime mark an unprecedented challenge to the authority of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the successor of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, leader of the Islamic Revolution. The loyalty of the security forces may be tested in the event of major bloodshed.
Mousavi urged his supporters to continue peaceful protests. Opposing lies and fraud is a right, Mousavi said in a statement published yesterday on his Web site.
Rafsanjani, 75, who heads the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body that has the power to appoint or dismiss the supreme leader, is likely to try to dislodge Khamenei, 69, said Anoush Ehteshami, a professor of international relations at Durham University in the U.K.
“Rafsanjani is being forced to come out into the open,” said Ehteshami. “The arrest of his family members is a direct challenge to him.”
Rafsanjani’s Family
The Rafsanjani family members, including his daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, were detained two days ago in connection with the protests.
The relatives were released yesterday, with Rafsanjani’s daughter the last to be freed, late last night, Iran’s state-run Press TV said. Rafsanjani is a behind-the-scenes supporter of Mousavi.
Former President Mohammad Khatami, 65, who sought to promote more social and political freedoms in the Persian Gulf nation of 73 million during his 1997-2005 administration, warned yesterday of creeping martial law.
“There is still a way out from this situation and no need to create an atmosphere of security and military rule,” said Khatami, who is an ally of Mousavi and campaigned for him.
Security Patrols
Azadi Avenue, the western Tehran site of clashes two days ago, was quiet yesterday as security forces patrolled with members of the volunteer Basij militia, a witness told AFP.
Police are breaking up any gathering of more than two or three people, AFP cited the unidentified witness as saying.
Ten people were killed on June 20 in Tehran as thousands defied Khamenei’s ban on rallies, state television reported, citing deputy police chief Ahmadreza Radan. Radan said more than 100 people were also injured in rioting. He said security forces didn’t use firearms and “terrorist groups” among the protesters were responsible for the casualties. CNN television, citing workers at a Tehran hospital, said 19 people were killed.
Key to the unfolding events in Iran will be the Revolutionary Guards, which Iran’s clerical rulers set up after the Islamic Revolution as a counterweight to the army. Club- wielding members of the Basij volunteer militia, which is part of the guards, have played a role in suppressing the protests.
Violent Showdown
“The stage may now be set for a violent showdown,” said Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Past experience, however, raises questions about whether the security forces can be uniformly relied on to implement an order to violently quash the protests.”
In 1994, army and Revolutionary Guards garrisoned near Qazvin, a town northwest of Tehran, refused to obey orders to fire on rioters, said Eisenstadt.
Rafsanjani, one of the main organizers of the Islamic Revolution, was the most powerful official in Iran at the time of Khomeini’s 1989 death. He remained so for at least four years as Khamenei, who was named to replace Khomeini, built up a power base among the security agencies and the Revolutionary Guards.
At Friday prayers in Tehran University on June 19, Khamenei reaffirmed Ahmadinejad’s electoral victory. The clerical Guardian Council, the top election body, has refused Mousavi’s call for a new election, offering only a selective recount of 10 percent of ballots.
Ahmadinejad won 63 percent of the vote to Mousavi’s 34 percent, according to the official tally.
For Rafsanjani, Mousavi and their allies, the democratic legitimacy of the Islamic republic is at stake, said Hooman Majd, the author of “The Ayatollah Begs to Differ: The Paradox of Modern Iran.”
“If they have the chance to seize power and oust the supreme leader, they’ll do it,” said Sanandaji.
To contact the reporters on this story: Henry Meyer in Dubai at [email protected]; Ladane Nasseri in Tehran at [email protected].
Last Updated: June 22, 2009 03:04 EDT
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Henry Meyer and Ladane Nasseri
June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Splits within Iran’s ruling elite deepened after police arrested relatives of an ex-president and Parliament’s speaker said that most Iranians questioned President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s electoral victory.
Security forces detained five relatives of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the most influential politicians in the country, state media said yesterday. Bolstering the opposition, Speaker Ali Larijani, who served as Iran’s nuclear negotiator until 2007, criticized the top election body for siding with Ahmadinejad and said most Iranians don’t accept the results.
“There is some serious dissatisfaction within the ranks,” said Ilan Berman, an analyst with the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington. “Anytime a regime begins to eat its own, it signals significant transformation.”
Security forces deployed in Tehran to prevent further protests after hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets during more than a week of demonstrations that saw at least 17 people killed, according to the government. Police arrested as many as 457 people during clashes in the city on June 20, Agence France-Presse cited state radio as saying today.
Rafsanjani is believed to be rallying support within the clerical establishment for opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, 67, who claims the government rigged the June 12 vote.
“The ball is in the opposition’s court,” said Kaveh-Cyrus Sanandaji, an Iran expert from Oxford University in the U.K. “The supreme leader and Ahmadinejad have proven they are willing to use violence against all dissent.”
Unprecedented Challenge
The protests, the largest since the Islamic Revolution that ousted the shah in 1979, and the divisions within the regime mark an unprecedented challenge to the authority of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the successor of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, leader of the Islamic Revolution. The loyalty of the security forces may be tested in the event of major bloodshed.
Mousavi urged his supporters to continue peaceful protests. Opposing lies and fraud is a right, Mousavi said in a statement published yesterday on his Web site.
Rafsanjani, 75, who heads the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body that has the power to appoint or dismiss the supreme leader, is likely to try to dislodge Khamenei, 69, said Anoush Ehteshami, a professor of international relations at Durham University in the U.K.
“Rafsanjani is being forced to come out into the open,” said Ehteshami. “The arrest of his family members is a direct challenge to him.”
Rafsanjani’s Family
The Rafsanjani family members, including his daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, were detained two days ago in connection with the protests.
The relatives were released yesterday, with Rafsanjani’s daughter the last to be freed, late last night, Iran’s state-run Press TV said. Rafsanjani is a behind-the-scenes supporter of Mousavi.
Former President Mohammad Khatami, 65, who sought to promote more social and political freedoms in the Persian Gulf nation of 73 million during his 1997-2005 administration, warned yesterday of creeping martial law.
“There is still a way out from this situation and no need to create an atmosphere of security and military rule,” said Khatami, who is an ally of Mousavi and campaigned for him.
Security Patrols
Azadi Avenue, the western Tehran site of clashes two days ago, was quiet yesterday as security forces patrolled with members of the volunteer Basij militia, a witness told AFP.
Police are breaking up any gathering of more than two or three people, AFP cited the unidentified witness as saying.
Ten people were killed on June 20 in Tehran as thousands defied Khamenei’s ban on rallies, state television reported, citing deputy police chief Ahmadreza Radan. Radan said more than 100 people were also injured in rioting. He said security forces didn’t use firearms and “terrorist groups” among the protesters were responsible for the casualties. CNN television, citing workers at a Tehran hospital, said 19 people were killed.
Key to the unfolding events in Iran will be the Revolutionary Guards, which Iran’s clerical rulers set up after the Islamic Revolution as a counterweight to the army. Club- wielding members of the Basij volunteer militia, which is part of the guards, have played a role in suppressing the protests.
Violent Showdown
“The stage may now be set for a violent showdown,” said Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Past experience, however, raises questions about whether the security forces can be uniformly relied on to implement an order to violently quash the protests.”
In 1994, army and Revolutionary Guards garrisoned near Qazvin, a town northwest of Tehran, refused to obey orders to fire on rioters, said Eisenstadt.
Rafsanjani, one of the main organizers of the Islamic Revolution, was the most powerful official in Iran at the time of Khomeini’s 1989 death. He remained so for at least four years as Khamenei, who was named to replace Khomeini, built up a power base among the security agencies and the Revolutionary Guards.
At Friday prayers in Tehran University on June 19, Khamenei reaffirmed Ahmadinejad’s electoral victory. The clerical Guardian Council, the top election body, has refused Mousavi’s call for a new election, offering only a selective recount of 10 percent of ballots.
Ahmadinejad won 63 percent of the vote to Mousavi’s 34 percent, according to the official tally.
For Rafsanjani, Mousavi and their allies, the democratic legitimacy of the Islamic republic is at stake, said Hooman Majd, the author of “The Ayatollah Begs to Differ: The Paradox of Modern Iran.”
“If they have the chance to seize power and oust the supreme leader, they’ll do it,” said Sanandaji.
To contact the reporters on this story: Henry Meyer in Dubai at [email protected]; Ladane Nasseri in Tehran at [email protected].
Last Updated: June 22, 2009 03:04 EDT
