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Coronavirus? Pandemic? For many in Sweden, life goes on as usual.

Leongsam

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Coronavirus? Pandemic? For many in Sweden, life goes on as usual.

  • a group of people on a beach: A park in Stockholm on Sunday.
  • a group of people sitting at a table in front of a crowd: The Medborgarplatsen, one of Stockholm’s largest and most central squares, on Saturday.
  • a person standing in front of a brick building: A woman sits in the sun as a passerby walks by in Stockholm on Saturday.

a group of people on a beach: A park in Stockholm on Sunday.



STOCKHOLM —It was a crisp April day, and the Medborgarplatsen, one of the largest central squares in Stockholm, was bustling with life. People inspected daffodils at a flower stand, children swerved around on bicycles, and dozens gathered on benches and outdoor restaurants to chase away a particularly gloomy winter. There was nothing particularly exceptional about this day but for the fact that as seemingly carefree Swedes milled about, much of the world was on lockdown.

"Is it really that damn bad?" Sandra Bergkvist, a 28-year-old grocery clerk from nearby Akersberga, asked rhetorically as she enjoyed a beer with a group of friends. "Of course we're worried about people in the risk groups, but if it wasn't for media it wouldn't have been this hysterical."

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Even Swedes in higher-risk groups did not seem that concerned. Margareta Körner, 80, and Margareta Eriksson, 67, fall into one of those groups — older adults — but the two retired women sat in the public square, sharing a thermos of coffee. Körner, who lives in a middle-class borough of central Stockholm, knows she is not supposed to be outside, but she said she maintains her distance from others. And Eriksson, who lives in the same borough, said fighting the coronavirus comes down to common sense.

"I think our government is doing the right thing," she said. "Most people are responsible."

Sweden has chosen its own path in battling the coronavirus pandemic, which as of Monday had infected 1.3 million people and killed over 73,000 worldwide. While many countries, including Sweden's neighbors, have shut down schools, restaurants, shops and borders, Sweden has maintained a relatively lax approach to combating the spread of the virus. Many still go into work. Primary schools and day cares remain open, as do recreational centers and several gyms. The elderly are urged to stay at home and unnecessary domestic travel is discouraged, but this is not enforced other than through public shaming.


It was not until March 29 that the Swedish government significantly curtailed the size of permitted gatherings — from 500 to 50. The legislature this week is expected to debate whether further measures, including business and travel restrictions, should be implemented.

The country has not been immune. On Sunday, the number of dead surpassed 400 — a higher fatality rate per capita than in the United States or any other Scandinavian country. One-third of Stockholm's homes for the elderly have seen cases of covid-19, medical facilities are stretched to their limits and hospital staffs are clamoring for enough protective gear. On Saturday, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven told the Swedish press that the country should be prepared for thousands of deaths.

Yet, in central Stockholm this weekend, you had to search to find signs of a pandemic.

"For a week or two, the city was like a ghost town, then people got tired of staying at home," said Linda Akesson, 30, from a middle-class suburb just north of Stockholm. Akesson, who works in a retirement home, was on a commuter train to meet friends for dinner. She said people make their own judgments based on government guidance. "We're this land of half-measures," she said. "They say, 'Try not to use public transport, but if you do, that's totally fine, too.' "

Tommy Möller, a political science professor at Stockholm University, says "many influential experts have taken a laid-back position to the problem and played it down. This has given legitimacy to people not to take advice to stay at home too seriously."

Several recent opinion polls have shown that the government's response has been popular
. Other polls show that Swedes are among the least worried by the coronavirus. That was echoed by the vibe in downtown Stockholm. In Husby to the northwest, however, the scene was quite different.

Few people moved between the brick and concrete high-rises. Of those who did, several wore face masks or plastic gloves. At the public pool, visits are down 90 percent, said pool attendant Hoz Ismael, 31, from Ursvik.

"People here are more paranoid," he said, "especially since so many of the first deaths happened here."

Husby, like many other socioeconomically challenged neighborhoods, is to a large extent inhabited by immigrants who live in close quarters and sometimes lack access to official communications or the language skills to understand them.

"I have three friends who ended up at intensive care for corona," said Husby resident Salar Sauza, who is 62 and on disability. "To be honest, I don't think the Swedish government has taken the issue seriously. Now, everyone stays at home here except the young ones. When I ask where they are going, they say, 'To town to drink Corona.' "

While some hail the still-open society for trying to stave off further economic crisis, others argue it is now too late for a lockdown anyway. Björn Olsen, a professor of infectious medicine at Uppsala University, was a vocal critic of the government's response initially, when people vacationing in Italy were allowed back into the country without going into quarantine — a decision widely believed to have kick-started the contagion in Sweden. Now, Olsen advocates limiting the damage through extensive testing and directed quarantines rather than by shutting borders and schools.
 
If you take a look at the trends in countries where I can safely assume now have reasonably sufficient testing capacity you'll see that all indicators are that the virus is about to run it's course.

Hopefully by June the world will have come to its senses.
 
This is a graph with a log scale. A straight line trend on the scale is exponential. Even a flattening trend may well be linear or even quadratic in reality!

Of course you have to look at the log scale that's what they included it for so we can see clearly when the disease plateaus
 
This is a graph with a log scale. A straight line trend on the scale is exponential. Even a flattening trend may well be linear or even quadratic in reality!

I was about to explain why I looked at the log scale but I found a simple and straightforward explanation on reddit so I don't have to reinvent the wheel.



Consistent order of magnitude

An exponential graph looks straight on a logarithmic scale

It's easier to see changes in rising and falling trends because the difference along the Y axis will be the same for a given proportion anywhere along the x axis.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logarithmic_scale#Graphic_representation

So like, on an y=x graph, a straight line, the proportion between 1 and 2 is 100%, whereas the proportion between 10 and 11 is 10%. On a linear graph, those very different proportions appear as the same vertical distance. On a logarithmic graph, the difference between 10 and 11 is 1/10th the vertical distance between 1 and 2, but the difference between 100 and 200 will be the same vertical distance.

Consider that on day 1 of the outbreak, with 50 known cases, and the next day we say there's 100 new cases, that's 200% increase. Kind of a big fuckin deal. But let's say today, with about 10,000 cases, if tomorrow we say there's 100 new cases, that's only 1% increase. Bad, but... not a galactic increase. On a linear graph, both increases look exactly the same; on a logarithmic graph, the second increase would barely be noticeable compared to the first.
 
Thailand is doing fine. Only 27 deaths and the trend is excellent after a slight hiccup.

Screenshot 2020-04-07 19.33.55.png


Again to put things in perspective a vulnerable road user eg cyclist, motorcyclist, pedestrian is far more at risk of dying on the road than from Covid-19

https://www.bangkokpost.com/learning/advanced/1377383/thailand-tops-road-death-ranking-list#cxrecs_s

The World Atlas ranking matches death cases in road accidents compiled by the foundation. Last year, up to 22,000 people, or an average of 50 to 60 people a day, died in car crashes, said Dr Thaejing.
 
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