CIMB says downside target when property defaults

[downgrader]

From CIMB research report released 13 Oct

Worst is not over; exploring downside targets for the STI when property related defaults start.

We explore downside targets for the STI.

Earnings visibility has dimmed significantly and setting index targets on the basis of earnings becomes increasingly meaningless.

We take the book values of banks and marked-down RNAV estimates for key property stocks to test downside targets for the STI.

Using an average of trough values in recent crisis years, downside of 17% from current levels for the STI (at 1,613) appears possible.

If banks and properties fall back to Asian financial crisis P/BV levels, the STI could drift even lower to 974.

 

[halsey02]

From CIMB research report released 13 Oct

Worst is not over; exploring downside targets for the STI when property related defaults start.

We explore downside targets for the STI.

Earnings visibility has dimmed significantly and setting index targets on the basis of earnings becomes increasingly meaningless.

We take the book values of banks and marked-down RNAV estimates for key property stocks to test downside targets for the STI.

Using an average of trough values in recent crisis years, downside of 17% from current levels for the STI (at 1,613) appears possible.

If banks and properties fall back to Asian financial crisis P/BV levels, the STI could drift even lower to 974.

No worry lah!, the lighning party, hip hop 65 team, will ensure, even the sky drop, they will hold it UP!

 

[Leongsam]

From CIMB research report released 13 Oct

Worst is not over; exploring downside targets for the STI when property

What happened to the Golden Period?

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