https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2019-05-16/doc-ihvhiews2311517.shtml
金灿荣：中国是纸老虎？打一打让美国人找找理智
金灿荣：中国是纸老虎？打一打让美国人找找理智
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第十一轮中美经贸高级别磋商结束，中方本着维护中美关系稳定大局的诚意尽了最大努力进行沟通与磋商，但在重大原则问题上绝不让步。面对美国方面在谈判中的反复无常与加征关税的威胁，中国方面也给予了强有的力回应和反制措施。
牵动世界神经的中美贸易战会走向何方？中美双方的关键分歧在哪里？美国的所谓“极限施压”将会导致什么样的后果？中国会有哪些进一步的反制措施？贸易战对于普通民众又会产生哪些影响？针对这些读者关心的问题，观察者网专访了中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长、国际问题专家金灿荣教授。
►观察者网：您认为目前中美贸易谈判导致双方无法达成协议的最大分歧在哪里？美方的哪些要求涉及了中国的底线，是我们不会妥协的？
金灿荣：美国去年对中国发起了贸易战，中国的应对总体来说非常克制，甚至可以说是忍辱负重。然而，在中国方面做了巨大让步的情况下，美国依然得寸进尺。
首先，美国方面在中美已经达成共识的条款上随意加码。去年11月30日在阿根廷中美两国元首会面，双方原则上谈妥努力减少2000亿美元的贸易差，但这次美国提出的数字却是3300亿。这种临时的加码，不仅违背了信义，而且超出了市场的客观必要性。
再者，在第十轮谈判中我们也收到了第三方的信息反馈——欧盟对中国发出了警告：如果中国运用行政计划的办法购买美国的产品、而排斥欧盟的产品，欧盟将会在WTO起诉中国——这是我们之前没有想到的问题。
最为重要的一点是，美国方面内部对于贸易谈判的态度和诉求是分裂的。美方大致分为三派：特朗普属于中间派，他的目标其实是比较有限的——主要是想捞到经济好处，他再利用自己的特长把这个好处吹上一吹，把经济好处包装成政治成果，有助于他明年当选，目标就算完成了。
姆努钦这一派，代表华尔街，更看重中国长期的经济潜力和市场潜力，准备见好就收。但现在的麻烦是姆努钦这派有点被边缘化，比较凶悍的极右翼莱特希泽、纳瓦罗这一派占了上风，主导了现在的中美贸易谈判。
白宫“贸易鹰派”莱特希泽（图片来源：网络）
在谈判中我们发现，对于极端派来说，他们的目的真不是要平衡贸易、通过结构性改革让外资有更多的机会，他们只是想限制中国的发展，而且限制的手法非常极端和粗鲁：干涉我们的内政，逼迫我们放弃发展的机会，这是我们无法容忍的。
极右翼不仅明确要求中国不能搞《中国制造2025》，甚至抓住“中国政府原则上同意国有企业中性化”这句话，想要搞美国版的“巡视组”，由他们的人派驻中国，监督中国的各级政府直至县政府层级，盯着政府支出里有没有补助国有企业——这就是严重侵犯我们主权、干涉我们内政的行为了。
如果是纯贸易问题，中国从中美大局的考虑会尽量满足美国的要求，因为贸易是中美关系的稳定器。如果把贸易问题泛化，想要干预我们主权，让我们放弃发展的机会，这是我们不能容忍的，甚至也不符合国际公认的人权原则。中国有14亿人，是人类的五分之一，我们有权利过好日子，如果有人不让我们发展，让我们永远做美国的打工仔，面对这样的情况，我们只能奋起反击。
►观察者网：您如何评价美方在谈判中采取的所谓“极限施压”策略？
金灿荣：极限施压是特朗普先生很喜欢用的一个词，他把自己《交易的艺术》这本书里讲的一套谈判法——高目标、猛宣传、临时变化让对方看不懂——“活学活用”到了国际关系上。可惜有没有效果现在很成疑。
2017年他就用极限施压对付朝鲜，朝鲜很不给面子，坚决顶着，结果后来特朗普说自己“爱上”了金正恩；
最近又对伊朗极限施压，伊朗也很强硬，结果上个礼拜特朗普推特上又讲“我们的电话已经通过瑞士使馆发给伊朗领袖了，你们赶紧给我打电话吧！”；
4月23日博尔顿推动了一场委内瑞拉政变，结果也没搞成，美国委内瑞拉问题特使在约定的政变开始时间和说好的关键人物打电话，结果人家关机了，他也挺没面子的。
再加上之前在叙利亚，美国一开始很凶，但从结果来看也是输给了俄罗斯，乌克兰方面美国也算是把乌克兰卖了，我觉得这个老兄就是个能咋呼的，可惜咋呼了一圈好像都没怎么成功，除了对付加拿大和墨西哥这两个对他有很强的依赖关系的邻居。如果是涉及到国家生存问题，对朝鲜，对伊朗，那对方就不怕你咋呼了，一旦人家铁了心不怕你咋呼，他就成了那个技穷的“黔驴”了。
特朗普的畅销书《交易的艺术》（图片来源：网络）
中美谈判中一个很棘手的问题是中国和美国这两个国家的思维方式和行为方式是根本不同的。中国在世界上算得上一个“例外”，是所有大国中脾气最好的——“凡事求诸于己”——出了什么问题总是先反省反省自己，把自己的问题解决了再要求别人。这和美国正好相反，美国是自己出了问题都是别人的错：80年代美国毒品泛滥，他不调整国内制度、惩罚毒品销售和消费，而是跑去打毒品生产国，现在遇到非法移民问题他不是在国内改革，惩罚使用非法移民的老板，而是跑去惩罚墨西哥……
中美的这种思维差异导致美国很容易产生一种误判，觉得中国好欺负，是个“纸老虎”。现在看来我们有必要和他们斗一斗，让他们知道，中国是一个gentleman，很绅士，但是我们手上也拿着带刺的大棒。如果放任美国误判，让他觉得我们是纸老虎以后，他就有可能触犯我们更大的底线，比如台湾问题、南海问题，那个就麻烦了。
►观察者网：在中方发布反制措施后，美股创下了年内最大跌幅。您认为从长期看特朗普是否会迫于压力缓和强硬的姿态，即将到来的美国选举季是否会影响中美贸易谈判，中方会采取哪些进一步的反制措施？
金灿荣：有个美国朋友对我讲过，中国股市崩盘相当于一个人从二楼跳楼，美国股市崩盘相当于从50楼跳楼，结果是完全不一样的——二楼跳楼可能会扭伤脚踝，50楼跳楼是必死无疑。
华尔街的股市占美国GDP的26%，我们的GDP只占4%，差得很远，而且美国企业百分之八十的融资渠道是靠股市，咱们国家只占到10%，我们主要是靠银行。股市对我们国家经济的影响很小，但是对他们很大。
所以他们对股市一直很看重，在谈判过程中也一直放风说“谈得挺好、挺好”，就是要努力维持市场的信心。最近打贸易战了，所以他们有点着急。
目前美方的目标是希望6月底G20会议之前谈成。日本大阪的G20峰会两国元首都会去，这是两国元首见面的好机会，事实上美方已经开始为这次会面放风了。从美国的各种放风来看，美国人从现在到6月底40天左右会很认真逼我们达成一个协议，但是我觉得可能性不大，比较有可能的结果是11月的APEC会议，届时两国元首还可以见面，到那个时候达成协议的可能性很大。
最直接的原因是那时候选举季正式开始了，特朗普需要外交成绩，如果可以和中国达成协议将会是他最拿得出手的成绩单。从美方那边传来的信息是，谈判初期美方提了56个条款，后来双方细化成142个小项，我们已经答应了80%，其中40%是马上就做的，40%会有一个时间表。也就是说，如果达成协议，至少这80%他们是可以拿到的，如果达不成协议，煮熟的鸭子就飞了，他们什么都拿不到。所以我觉得美国虽然表面上很凶，心理还是惦着这个交易的，是不会放弃的。
美国三大股指低开低走，创下1月3日以来最大跌幅（图片来源：观察者网）
还有一个原因，我推算明年美国经济的势头不会有今年好了。之前特朗普搞了很多刺激因素，给美国经济打了四针鸡血：减税、海外资金回流、2万亿基建投资计划和去金融管制，这四针鸡血打下去之后美国经济就很兴奋，经济血压也有些虚高。美国经济目前最好看的就是股市，实体经济来看就业率和通货膨胀都挺好。
但是这两个数据有一个问题，美国目前的劳动参与率很低，很多不就业也不领失业救济的人口不被计入失业率中，所以美国目前的失业率低有点假；另外现在就业的质量也不高，很多都是临时性的。这些隐患逐渐积累，后面渐渐就严重了，我估计到了下半年数字就不会那么好看了，到了明年就会有相当风险了。因此到了年底的关口，他们知道明年“风紧”，就要赶紧“扯呼”了。
还有一个重要因素是中国经济的趋稳向好。
中国经济确实是过去几年发展动力不足，这其中有一部分原因是客观的，我们处在艰难的经济转型中，把原来粗放型的经济增长转变为科技创新驱动的高附加值经济增长；另一个原因是我们受到外部的拖累，2008年金融危机到现在，美、欧、日本他们的经济都不太好，所以就导致世界经济主要靠中国来拉动，我们一家每年给世界经济的贡献都是三分之一，大家一起横渡长江结果他们老是拖累我们。此外还受到了地方政府动力不足和国家经济金融政策的影响。凡此种种，从2014年到2018年我们的经济是出现了一定的问题。
但是我觉得到今年底，这个趋势会稳下来，一个是经济增长动能转换有一定成果了，新经济的比例提高，再一个宏观政策开始往扩大需求方面转化。所以下半年我们会看到中美的经济态势会有变化，美国的谈判地位会变得不是很好，这就有助于谈判达成协议。
至于中国对美国进一步的行动，我觉得我们目前的反制措施是非常节制、也是非常客气的。对原来的600亿美元当中的一部分提了关税，美国是2000亿加征关税，我们是600亿，所以是非常有节制的。主要是表达一个讯号，要用我们的反应让他们知道，他们的要求必须合理，这就是我们和有些国家不一样的地方。
就像朝鲜战争，我们是打打谈谈，谈谈打打，这就是未来会经历的一个常态。我个人估计还会有一些后续的手段，具体是什么，这个是国家机密了。但是一定会有后续手段，而且不完全限于经济手段。
►观察者网：这次中方的表态在受到了国民的热烈响应，但我们也在互联网上看到了一些焦虑和恐慌的声音。您如何看待这样的情绪，我们普通人应该如何面对贸易战对我们的影响？
金灿荣：这些声音我想主要来自以下几波人：
首先是改革开放四十年，我们中国内部的很多人是深受西方影响的，这其中有复杂的情况。确实有很多国内人的利益是和美国捆绑在一起的，这就是网民所讲的“买办利益”，而且这样的利益集团是非常强大的。
其次，十八大以来的六年，中央反腐从严治党也触动了一些人的利益，这些人也会借这个事儿出来表现他们的不满。
第三，这40年新自由主义对中国的渗透很厉害，在深受新自由主义意识形态影响的这派人心目中，中国做的事儿就是错的，美国做的就是对的。
最后就是一群对社会不满、反社会人格的人，趁着机会拼命起哄造谣，希望制造混乱。
如果你看去年的进出口数字，其实贸易战对普通人的影响并不大，主要是心理影响大，而这个心理影响的原因很复杂。
比如说上周A股的普跌就是一帮机构和投资者借着贸易谈判这个事儿收割散户的韭菜，正常情况下大批资金跑出来证监会可能找他们麻烦，然而他们借特朗普的推特说这个责任是特朗普的，他把我们吓着了，你们去找他吧。
再比如买办利益集团不是从国家利益出发，而是把集团利益放在国家利益之上，因为国家让步的结果是让14亿人承担成本，好处却是他们少数人享受，所以他们会讲得很冠冕堂皇：“从大局出发一定要让步”，其实后面反映出的是他的个人利益。
再比如说一些敌对势力趁机散布谣言，说什么贸易战让越南占了便宜，又在网上造谣说华为要向高通支付3000亿美元等等，这些谣言水平很差、不值一驳，但是有些人还挺爱看这种新闻，看了还全都信——我估计这也是美国舆论战的一部分。
我觉得最近一次翻脸有一个好处是让美国把他的弹药都打出来了。美国时间5月13日，莱特希泽宣布对剩下的3200亿也准备征税，让大家讨论。我觉得这其实是一个好事儿，5700亿全部征25%的税以后他的弹药就打完了，弹药打完后中国民众就可以看到贸易战真实的影响。那些在网上散布恐慌的人在后面喊“完了完了，你要败了”，结果一看，咦？对方没子弹了，这个时候他们就不喊了，人民的信心也就恢复了。
某种意义上讲，贸易战还有一个非常重要的战场就是舆论战，打你的信心，让企业家不敢投资、而往外面转移资本。原来我们希望息事宁人来解决问题，现在看来不能了。
美国头脑现在有点晕，老特这个人咋呼，也比较会咋呼，美国老百姓也比较喜欢听他咋呼，就导致美国整个国家的状态有点不正常。正应了中国网民经常说的一句话：“自从这个人得了精神病，他的精神就好多了”。
图片来源：网络
通过打一打，可以看到美国的实际力量，看到我们的实际力量，然后让大家恢复信心。我们恢复恢复信心，美国也恢复恢复理智。
关键字 : 观察者网金灿荣中美
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Jin Canrong: China is a paper tiger? Hit a dozen to make Americans look for reason
Jin Canrong: China is a paper tiger? Hit a dozen to make Americans look for reason
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In the eleventh round of the China-US high-level economic and trade consultations, China has done its utmost to communicate and consult in the spirit of maintaining the overall stability of Sino-US relations, but will never give in on major issues. In the face of the volatility of the United States in the negotiations and the threat of increasing tariffs, the Chinese side has also given strong response and counter-measures.
Where is the China-US trade war that will touch the world's nerves go? What are the key differences between China and the United States? What are the consequences of the so-called "extreme pressure" in the United States? What further counter-measures will China have? What impact will the trade war have on the general public? In response to the concerns of these readers, Observer Network interviewed Prof. Jin Canrong, Associate Dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China and an expert on international issues.
► Observer Network: What do you think is the biggest difference between the current Sino-US trade negotiations that prevented the two sides from reaching an agreement? What requirements does the US have for China's bottom line, and we will not compromise?
Jin Canrong: The United States launched a trade war against China last year. China’s response is generally very restrained, and it can even be said to be a burden of humiliation. However, in the case of a huge concession made by China, the United States is still in the process.
First of all, the United States has arbitrarily overweighted the terms of which China and the United States have reached consensus. On November 30 last year, the heads of state of the two countries in Argentina met. The two sides agreed in principle to reduce the trade deficit of 200 billion U.S. dollars, but the figure proposed by the U.S. was 330 billion. This temporary overweight not only violates the faith, but also exceeds the objective necessity of the market.
Furthermore, in the tenth round of negotiations, we also received feedback from third parties – the EU issued a warning to China: If China uses the administrative plan to purchase US products and exclude EU products, the EU will be in the WTO. Prosecuting China - this is something we have not thought of before.
The most important point is that the attitude and demands of the US side for trade negotiations are divided. The United States is roughly divided into three factions: Trump belongs to the centrist, and his goal is actually limited - mainly to get the economic benefits, he then use his expertise to blow this advantage and package the economic benefits into politics. The results will help him to be elected next year, and the goal will be completed.
The unit of Mnuchin, on behalf of Wall Street, values China's long-term economic potential and market potential, and is ready to accept it. But now the trouble is that the Nunchin faction is somewhat marginalized. The more fierce far right wingers, Hittize and Navarro, have the upper hand and dominated the current Sino-US trade negotiations.
White House "trade hawks" Wright Heze (Source: Network)
In the negotiations, we found that for the extremes, their purpose is not to balance trade, to make foreign investment more opportunities through structural reforms, they just want to limit China's development, and the restrictions are extremely extreme and rude: Interfering in our internal affairs and forcing us to give up opportunities for development is something we cannot tolerate.
The far right wing not only explicitly requires China not to engage in "Made in China 2025", but even grasps the phrase "the Chinese government agrees to the neutralization of state-owned enterprises in principle" and wants to engage in the US version of the "Inspection Group", which is stationed in China by their people. To supervise all levels of government in China to the level of the county government, and to stare at government expenditures to subsidize state-owned enterprises - this is a serious violation of our sovereignty and interference in our internal affairs.
If it is a pure trade issue, China's consideration of the overall situation of China and the United States will try to meet the requirements of the United States, because trade is a stabilizer for Sino-US relations. If we generalize trade issues, want to intervene in our sovereignty, and let us abandon opportunities for development, this is something we cannot tolerate and even does not conform to internationally recognized human rights principles. There are 1.4 billion people in China, one-fifth of humanity. We have the right to live a good life. If someone does not let us develop, let us be a wage earner for the United States forever. In the face of such a situation, we can only fight back.
► Observer Network: How do you evaluate the so-called “extreme pressure” strategy adopted by the US in the negotiations?
Jin Canrong: Extreme pressure is a word that Mr. Trump likes very much. He puts a set of negotiation methods in his book "The Art of Trading" - high goals, fierce propaganda, temporary changes so that the other party can't understand. - "Learning and using" to international relations. It is a pity that there is no effect now.
In 2017, he used extreme pressure to deal with North Korea. North Korea did not give face and resolutely stood up. Later, Trump said that he "fallen in love" with Kim Jong-un;
Recently, Iran has also put pressure on the Iranian limit. Iran is also very tough. As a result, Trump said on the Twitter last week that "our phone has been sent to the Iranian leader through the Swiss Embassy. Please call me quickly!";
On April 23, Bolton promoted a coup in Venezuela. The result was not completed. The US Special Envoy for Venezuela called the key figures at the beginning of the agreed coup, and the people shut down. He also had no face.
In addition, before in Syria, the United States was very fierce at first, but from the results it also lost to Russia. In the Ukrainian side, the United States also sold Ukraine. I think this man is a singer, but it’s a pity. They have not been successful, except for the neighbors of Canada and Mexico who have strong reliance on him. If it is related to the survival of the country, to North Korea, to Iran, then the other party is not afraid of you screaming, once people are ironic and not afraid of you, he becomes the "deaf" of the poor.
Trump's bestseller "The Art of Trading" (Source: Network)
A very difficult issue in Sino-US negotiations is that the way of thinking and behavior of China and the United States are fundamentally different. China is an "exception" in the world, and it is the best temper of all big powers - "everything is done for yourself" - what problems are always reflected on self-reflection, solve their own problems and ask others . This is exactly the opposite of the United States. It is the fault of others that the United States has a problem: in the 1980s, the United States was flooded with drugs. Instead of adjusting the domestic system and punishing drug sales and consumption, it ran to drug-producing countries and now encountered illegal immigrants. The problem is that he is not reforming at home, punishing the boss who uses illegal immigrants, but rushing to punish Mexico...
This kind of thinking difference between China and the United States makes it easy for the United States to produce a misjudgment. It feels that China is a bully and is a "paper tiger." Now it seems that we need to fight with them and let them know that China is a gentleman, very gentleman, but we also have a big stick with a thorn in our hands. If you let the United States misjudge, let him think that we are paper tigers, he may violate our bigger bottom line, such as the Taiwan issue, the South China Sea issue, that is troublesome.
► Observer website: After the Chinese issued anti-measures, US stocks hit the biggest decline during the year. Do you think that Trump will be forced to ease the tough stance in the long run, and whether the upcoming US election season will affect Sino-US trade negotiations, and what further counter-measures will China take?
Jin Canrong: An American friend told me that the collapse of the Chinese stock market is equivalent to a person jumping from the second floor. The collapse of the US stock market is equivalent to jumping off the 50th floor. The result is completely different. The second floor jump may hurt the ankle. Buildings jumping off the building are sure to die.
Wall Street's stock market accounts for 26% of US GDP, our GDP only accounts for 4%, and the difference is very far. And 80% of the financing channels of American companies rely on the stock market. Our country only accounts for 10%. We mainly rely on bank. The stock market has little impact on our national economy, but it is very big for them.
Therefore, they have always valued the stock market. In the course of the negotiations, they have always said that “talking is very good and very good” is to strive to maintain market confidence. I have recently fought a trade war, so they are a little anxious.
At present, the US goal is to hope that before the G20 meeting at the end of June. The G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, will go to the capital of the two countries. This is a good opportunity for the two heads of state to meet. In fact, the US has already begun to let the meeting go. Judging from the various winds in the United States, Americans will be very serious about forcing us to reach an agreement from now until the end of June, but I think the possibility is not great. The more likely result is the APEC meeting in November. The head of state can also meet, and the possibility of reaching an agreement at that time is great.
The most direct reason is that the election season officially began. Trump needs diplomatic achievements. If he can reach an agreement with China, it will be his most successful transcript. The message from the US side was that the United States introduced 56 clauses at the beginning of the negotiations. Later, the two sides refined into 142 items. We have already agreed to 80%, 40% of which will be done immediately, and 40% will have a time. table. That is to say, if an agreement is reached, at least 80% of them can get it. If the agreement is not reached, the cooked ducks will fly and they will not get anything. Therefore, I feel that although the United States is very fierce on the surface, the psychological still lingers on this transaction, it will not give up.
The three major US stock indexes opened lower and lower, setting the biggest decline since January 3 (Source: Observer Network)
There is another reason. I predict that the momentum of the US economy next year will not be better this year. Before Trump made a lot of stimulating factors, he gave the US economy four rounds of blood: tax cuts, overseas capital backflow, 2 trillion infrastructure investment plans, and financial controls. After the four-pronged chicken blood, the US economy is very Excited, the economic blood pressure is also somewhat high. The best thing about the US economy at the moment is the stock market. The real economy looks good at both employment and inflation.
However, there is a problem with these two data. The current labor participation rate in the United States is very low. Many people who are not employed or receive unemployment benefits are not included in the unemployment rate. Therefore, the current unemployment rate in the United States is a little fake; The quality is not high, and many are temporary. These hidden dangers have gradually accumulated, and the latter has gradually become serious. I estimate that the numbers will not be so good in the second half of the year, and there will be considerable risks next year. So at the end of the year, they know that next year's "wind tight", we must hurry to "snap".
Another important factor is that China's economy is stabilizing.
The Chinese economy is indeed a lack of development momentum in the past few years. Part of the reason is objective. We are in a difficult economic transition, transforming the original extensive economic growth into high value-added economic growth driven by technological innovation; The reason is that we are dragged down by the outside world. In the 2008 financial crisis, the economies of the United States, Europe, and Japan are not very good. Therefore, the world economy is mainly driven by China. Our family contributes to the world economy every year. One of them, everyone crossed the Yangtze River together and they always dragged us down. In addition, it has been affected by the lack of local government power and national economic and financial policies. All of these, from 2014 to 2018, our economy has had certain problems.
However, I think that by the end of this year, this trend will stabilize. One is that there is a certain result in the transformation of economic growth kinetic energy. The proportion of the new economy has increased, and another macro policy has begun to transform into expanding demand. Therefore, in the second half of the year, we will see that the economic situation in China and the United States will change, and the negotiating position of the United States will not become very good, which will help negotiate an agreement.
As for China’s further actions against the United States, I feel that our current counter-measures are very modest and very polite. We have imposed tariffs on some of the original $60 billion, the United States has 200 billion plus tariffs, and we are 60 billion, so it is very restrained. The main thing is to express a signal. We must use our reaction to let them know that their requirements must be reasonable. This is where we are different from some countries.
Just like the Korean War, we are talking and talking about playing, which is the normal state that we will experience in the future. I personally estimate that there will be some follow-up measures, specifically what is this, this is a state secret. But there must be follow-up, and it is not entirely limited to economic means.
► Observer website: This time, the Chinese attitude has received enthusiastic response from the nationals, but we also saw some anxiety and panic on the Internet. How do you think about such emotions, how should ordinary people face the impact of trade wars on us?
Jin Canrong: I think these voices mainly come from the following waves:
The first is the 40 years of reform and opening up. Many of us in China are deeply influenced by the West. There are complicated situations. It is true that many domestic people's interests are tied up with the United States. This is what the netizens say about "buying interests," and such interest groups are very powerful.
Secondly, in the six years since the 18th National Congress, the central government’s anti-corruption party has also touched the interests of some people. These people will also use this matter to express their dissatisfaction.
Third, the infiltration of neoliberalism into China in the past 40 years is very powerful. In the minds of the people who are deeply influenced by neoliberal ideology, what China does is wrong, and the United States is right.
In the end, a group of people who are dissatisfied with society and anti-social personality, take the opportunity to work hard and hope to create chaos.
If you look at the import and export figures of last year, in fact, the impact of trade wars on ordinary people is not large, mainly because of the psychological impact, and the reasons for this psychological impact are very complicated.
For example, last week's A-share market's general decline was that a group of institutions and investors used the trade negotiations to harvest the amaranth of retail investors. Under normal circumstances, a large amount of funds ran out of the SFC may find them trouble, but they used Trump's push. Specially said that this responsibility is Trump's, he scared us, you go find him.
For example, the comprador interest group does not start from the national interest, but puts the group's interests above the national interests. Because the result of the national concession is to let 1.4 billion people bear the cost, the benefit is that they are enjoyed by a few people, so they will talk very much. High-sounding: "There must be concessions from the overall situation." In fact, what is reflected later is his personal interests.
For example, some hostile forces took the opportunity to spread rumors, saying that the trade war made Vietnam account for the cheap, and on the Internet, said that Huawei had to pay 30,000 yuan to Qualcomm, etc. These rumors are very poor and worthless, but some people I still love to watch this kind of news, and I still read all the letters - I guess this is also part of the American public opinion war.
I think the last time I turned my face is that the United States has made his ammunition out. On May 13th, US time, Wright Heze announced that he would also be taxing the remaining 320 billion for discussion. I think this is actually a good thing. After the 570 billion yuan tax is levied 25%, his ammunition will be finished. After the ammunition is finished, the Chinese people can see the real impact of the trade war. Those who spread the panic on the Internet shouted "The end is over, you have to lose", and the result is a look, what? The other party has no bullets.
金灿荣：中国是纸老虎？打一打让美国人找找理智
金灿荣：中国是纸老虎？打一打让美国人找找理智
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第十一轮中美经贸高级别磋商结束，中方本着维护中美关系稳定大局的诚意尽了最大努力进行沟通与磋商，但在重大原则问题上绝不让步。面对美国方面在谈判中的反复无常与加征关税的威胁，中国方面也给予了强有的力回应和反制措施。
牵动世界神经的中美贸易战会走向何方？中美双方的关键分歧在哪里？美国的所谓“极限施压”将会导致什么样的后果？中国会有哪些进一步的反制措施？贸易战对于普通民众又会产生哪些影响？针对这些读者关心的问题，观察者网专访了中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长、国际问题专家金灿荣教授。
►观察者网：您认为目前中美贸易谈判导致双方无法达成协议的最大分歧在哪里？美方的哪些要求涉及了中国的底线，是我们不会妥协的？
金灿荣：美国去年对中国发起了贸易战，中国的应对总体来说非常克制，甚至可以说是忍辱负重。然而，在中国方面做了巨大让步的情况下，美国依然得寸进尺。
首先，美国方面在中美已经达成共识的条款上随意加码。去年11月30日在阿根廷中美两国元首会面，双方原则上谈妥努力减少2000亿美元的贸易差，但这次美国提出的数字却是3300亿。这种临时的加码，不仅违背了信义，而且超出了市场的客观必要性。
再者，在第十轮谈判中我们也收到了第三方的信息反馈——欧盟对中国发出了警告：如果中国运用行政计划的办法购买美国的产品、而排斥欧盟的产品，欧盟将会在WTO起诉中国——这是我们之前没有想到的问题。
最为重要的一点是，美国方面内部对于贸易谈判的态度和诉求是分裂的。美方大致分为三派：特朗普属于中间派，他的目标其实是比较有限的——主要是想捞到经济好处，他再利用自己的特长把这个好处吹上一吹，把经济好处包装成政治成果，有助于他明年当选，目标就算完成了。
姆努钦这一派，代表华尔街，更看重中国长期的经济潜力和市场潜力，准备见好就收。但现在的麻烦是姆努钦这派有点被边缘化，比较凶悍的极右翼莱特希泽、纳瓦罗这一派占了上风，主导了现在的中美贸易谈判。
白宫“贸易鹰派”莱特希泽（图片来源：网络）
在谈判中我们发现，对于极端派来说，他们的目的真不是要平衡贸易、通过结构性改革让外资有更多的机会，他们只是想限制中国的发展，而且限制的手法非常极端和粗鲁：干涉我们的内政，逼迫我们放弃发展的机会，这是我们无法容忍的。
极右翼不仅明确要求中国不能搞《中国制造2025》，甚至抓住“中国政府原则上同意国有企业中性化”这句话，想要搞美国版的“巡视组”，由他们的人派驻中国，监督中国的各级政府直至县政府层级，盯着政府支出里有没有补助国有企业——这就是严重侵犯我们主权、干涉我们内政的行为了。
如果是纯贸易问题，中国从中美大局的考虑会尽量满足美国的要求，因为贸易是中美关系的稳定器。如果把贸易问题泛化，想要干预我们主权，让我们放弃发展的机会，这是我们不能容忍的，甚至也不符合国际公认的人权原则。中国有14亿人，是人类的五分之一，我们有权利过好日子，如果有人不让我们发展，让我们永远做美国的打工仔，面对这样的情况，我们只能奋起反击。
►观察者网：您如何评价美方在谈判中采取的所谓“极限施压”策略？
金灿荣：极限施压是特朗普先生很喜欢用的一个词，他把自己《交易的艺术》这本书里讲的一套谈判法——高目标、猛宣传、临时变化让对方看不懂——“活学活用”到了国际关系上。可惜有没有效果现在很成疑。
2017年他就用极限施压对付朝鲜，朝鲜很不给面子，坚决顶着，结果后来特朗普说自己“爱上”了金正恩；
最近又对伊朗极限施压，伊朗也很强硬，结果上个礼拜特朗普推特上又讲“我们的电话已经通过瑞士使馆发给伊朗领袖了，你们赶紧给我打电话吧！”；
4月23日博尔顿推动了一场委内瑞拉政变，结果也没搞成，美国委内瑞拉问题特使在约定的政变开始时间和说好的关键人物打电话，结果人家关机了，他也挺没面子的。
再加上之前在叙利亚，美国一开始很凶，但从结果来看也是输给了俄罗斯，乌克兰方面美国也算是把乌克兰卖了，我觉得这个老兄就是个能咋呼的，可惜咋呼了一圈好像都没怎么成功，除了对付加拿大和墨西哥这两个对他有很强的依赖关系的邻居。如果是涉及到国家生存问题，对朝鲜，对伊朗，那对方就不怕你咋呼了，一旦人家铁了心不怕你咋呼，他就成了那个技穷的“黔驴”了。
特朗普的畅销书《交易的艺术》（图片来源：网络）
中美谈判中一个很棘手的问题是中国和美国这两个国家的思维方式和行为方式是根本不同的。中国在世界上算得上一个“例外”，是所有大国中脾气最好的——“凡事求诸于己”——出了什么问题总是先反省反省自己，把自己的问题解决了再要求别人。这和美国正好相反，美国是自己出了问题都是别人的错：80年代美国毒品泛滥，他不调整国内制度、惩罚毒品销售和消费，而是跑去打毒品生产国，现在遇到非法移民问题他不是在国内改革，惩罚使用非法移民的老板，而是跑去惩罚墨西哥……
中美的这种思维差异导致美国很容易产生一种误判，觉得中国好欺负，是个“纸老虎”。现在看来我们有必要和他们斗一斗，让他们知道，中国是一个gentleman，很绅士，但是我们手上也拿着带刺的大棒。如果放任美国误判，让他觉得我们是纸老虎以后，他就有可能触犯我们更大的底线，比如台湾问题、南海问题，那个就麻烦了。
►观察者网：在中方发布反制措施后，美股创下了年内最大跌幅。您认为从长期看特朗普是否会迫于压力缓和强硬的姿态，即将到来的美国选举季是否会影响中美贸易谈判，中方会采取哪些进一步的反制措施？
金灿荣：有个美国朋友对我讲过，中国股市崩盘相当于一个人从二楼跳楼，美国股市崩盘相当于从50楼跳楼，结果是完全不一样的——二楼跳楼可能会扭伤脚踝，50楼跳楼是必死无疑。
华尔街的股市占美国GDP的26%，我们的GDP只占4%，差得很远，而且美国企业百分之八十的融资渠道是靠股市，咱们国家只占到10%，我们主要是靠银行。股市对我们国家经济的影响很小，但是对他们很大。
所以他们对股市一直很看重，在谈判过程中也一直放风说“谈得挺好、挺好”，就是要努力维持市场的信心。最近打贸易战了，所以他们有点着急。
目前美方的目标是希望6月底G20会议之前谈成。日本大阪的G20峰会两国元首都会去，这是两国元首见面的好机会，事实上美方已经开始为这次会面放风了。从美国的各种放风来看，美国人从现在到6月底40天左右会很认真逼我们达成一个协议，但是我觉得可能性不大，比较有可能的结果是11月的APEC会议，届时两国元首还可以见面，到那个时候达成协议的可能性很大。
最直接的原因是那时候选举季正式开始了，特朗普需要外交成绩，如果可以和中国达成协议将会是他最拿得出手的成绩单。从美方那边传来的信息是，谈判初期美方提了56个条款，后来双方细化成142个小项，我们已经答应了80%，其中40%是马上就做的，40%会有一个时间表。也就是说，如果达成协议，至少这80%他们是可以拿到的，如果达不成协议，煮熟的鸭子就飞了，他们什么都拿不到。所以我觉得美国虽然表面上很凶，心理还是惦着这个交易的，是不会放弃的。
美国三大股指低开低走，创下1月3日以来最大跌幅（图片来源：观察者网）
还有一个原因，我推算明年美国经济的势头不会有今年好了。之前特朗普搞了很多刺激因素，给美国经济打了四针鸡血：减税、海外资金回流、2万亿基建投资计划和去金融管制，这四针鸡血打下去之后美国经济就很兴奋，经济血压也有些虚高。美国经济目前最好看的就是股市，实体经济来看就业率和通货膨胀都挺好。
但是这两个数据有一个问题，美国目前的劳动参与率很低，很多不就业也不领失业救济的人口不被计入失业率中，所以美国目前的失业率低有点假；另外现在就业的质量也不高，很多都是临时性的。这些隐患逐渐积累，后面渐渐就严重了，我估计到了下半年数字就不会那么好看了，到了明年就会有相当风险了。因此到了年底的关口，他们知道明年“风紧”，就要赶紧“扯呼”了。
还有一个重要因素是中国经济的趋稳向好。
中国经济确实是过去几年发展动力不足，这其中有一部分原因是客观的，我们处在艰难的经济转型中，把原来粗放型的经济增长转变为科技创新驱动的高附加值经济增长；另一个原因是我们受到外部的拖累，2008年金融危机到现在，美、欧、日本他们的经济都不太好，所以就导致世界经济主要靠中国来拉动，我们一家每年给世界经济的贡献都是三分之一，大家一起横渡长江结果他们老是拖累我们。此外还受到了地方政府动力不足和国家经济金融政策的影响。凡此种种，从2014年到2018年我们的经济是出现了一定的问题。
但是我觉得到今年底，这个趋势会稳下来，一个是经济增长动能转换有一定成果了，新经济的比例提高，再一个宏观政策开始往扩大需求方面转化。所以下半年我们会看到中美的经济态势会有变化，美国的谈判地位会变得不是很好，这就有助于谈判达成协议。
至于中国对美国进一步的行动，我觉得我们目前的反制措施是非常节制、也是非常客气的。对原来的600亿美元当中的一部分提了关税，美国是2000亿加征关税，我们是600亿，所以是非常有节制的。主要是表达一个讯号，要用我们的反应让他们知道，他们的要求必须合理，这就是我们和有些国家不一样的地方。
就像朝鲜战争，我们是打打谈谈，谈谈打打，这就是未来会经历的一个常态。我个人估计还会有一些后续的手段，具体是什么，这个是国家机密了。但是一定会有后续手段，而且不完全限于经济手段。
►观察者网：这次中方的表态在受到了国民的热烈响应，但我们也在互联网上看到了一些焦虑和恐慌的声音。您如何看待这样的情绪，我们普通人应该如何面对贸易战对我们的影响？
金灿荣：这些声音我想主要来自以下几波人：
首先是改革开放四十年，我们中国内部的很多人是深受西方影响的，这其中有复杂的情况。确实有很多国内人的利益是和美国捆绑在一起的，这就是网民所讲的“买办利益”，而且这样的利益集团是非常强大的。
其次，十八大以来的六年，中央反腐从严治党也触动了一些人的利益，这些人也会借这个事儿出来表现他们的不满。
第三，这40年新自由主义对中国的渗透很厉害，在深受新自由主义意识形态影响的这派人心目中，中国做的事儿就是错的，美国做的就是对的。
最后就是一群对社会不满、反社会人格的人，趁着机会拼命起哄造谣，希望制造混乱。
如果你看去年的进出口数字，其实贸易战对普通人的影响并不大，主要是心理影响大，而这个心理影响的原因很复杂。
比如说上周A股的普跌就是一帮机构和投资者借着贸易谈判这个事儿收割散户的韭菜，正常情况下大批资金跑出来证监会可能找他们麻烦，然而他们借特朗普的推特说这个责任是特朗普的，他把我们吓着了，你们去找他吧。
再比如买办利益集团不是从国家利益出发，而是把集团利益放在国家利益之上，因为国家让步的结果是让14亿人承担成本，好处却是他们少数人享受，所以他们会讲得很冠冕堂皇：“从大局出发一定要让步”，其实后面反映出的是他的个人利益。
再比如说一些敌对势力趁机散布谣言，说什么贸易战让越南占了便宜，又在网上造谣说华为要向高通支付3000亿美元等等，这些谣言水平很差、不值一驳，但是有些人还挺爱看这种新闻，看了还全都信——我估计这也是美国舆论战的一部分。
我觉得最近一次翻脸有一个好处是让美国把他的弹药都打出来了。美国时间5月13日，莱特希泽宣布对剩下的3200亿也准备征税，让大家讨论。我觉得这其实是一个好事儿，5700亿全部征25%的税以后他的弹药就打完了，弹药打完后中国民众就可以看到贸易战真实的影响。那些在网上散布恐慌的人在后面喊“完了完了，你要败了”，结果一看，咦？对方没子弹了，这个时候他们就不喊了，人民的信心也就恢复了。
某种意义上讲，贸易战还有一个非常重要的战场就是舆论战，打你的信心，让企业家不敢投资、而往外面转移资本。原来我们希望息事宁人来解决问题，现在看来不能了。
美国头脑现在有点晕，老特这个人咋呼，也比较会咋呼，美国老百姓也比较喜欢听他咋呼，就导致美国整个国家的状态有点不正常。正应了中国网民经常说的一句话：“自从这个人得了精神病，他的精神就好多了”。
图片来源：网络
通过打一打，可以看到美国的实际力量，看到我们的实际力量，然后让大家恢复信心。我们恢复恢复信心，美国也恢复恢复理智。
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Jin Canrong: China is a paper tiger? Hit a dozen to make Americans look for reason
Jin Canrong: China is a paper tiger? Hit a dozen to make Americans look for reason
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In the eleventh round of the China-US high-level economic and trade consultations, China has done its utmost to communicate and consult in the spirit of maintaining the overall stability of Sino-US relations, but will never give in on major issues. In the face of the volatility of the United States in the negotiations and the threat of increasing tariffs, the Chinese side has also given strong response and counter-measures.
Where is the China-US trade war that will touch the world's nerves go? What are the key differences between China and the United States? What are the consequences of the so-called "extreme pressure" in the United States? What further counter-measures will China have? What impact will the trade war have on the general public? In response to the concerns of these readers, Observer Network interviewed Prof. Jin Canrong, Associate Dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China and an expert on international issues.
► Observer Network: What do you think is the biggest difference between the current Sino-US trade negotiations that prevented the two sides from reaching an agreement? What requirements does the US have for China's bottom line, and we will not compromise?
Jin Canrong: The United States launched a trade war against China last year. China’s response is generally very restrained, and it can even be said to be a burden of humiliation. However, in the case of a huge concession made by China, the United States is still in the process.
First of all, the United States has arbitrarily overweighted the terms of which China and the United States have reached consensus. On November 30 last year, the heads of state of the two countries in Argentina met. The two sides agreed in principle to reduce the trade deficit of 200 billion U.S. dollars, but the figure proposed by the U.S. was 330 billion. This temporary overweight not only violates the faith, but also exceeds the objective necessity of the market.
Furthermore, in the tenth round of negotiations, we also received feedback from third parties – the EU issued a warning to China: If China uses the administrative plan to purchase US products and exclude EU products, the EU will be in the WTO. Prosecuting China - this is something we have not thought of before.
The most important point is that the attitude and demands of the US side for trade negotiations are divided. The United States is roughly divided into three factions: Trump belongs to the centrist, and his goal is actually limited - mainly to get the economic benefits, he then use his expertise to blow this advantage and package the economic benefits into politics. The results will help him to be elected next year, and the goal will be completed.
The unit of Mnuchin, on behalf of Wall Street, values China's long-term economic potential and market potential, and is ready to accept it. But now the trouble is that the Nunchin faction is somewhat marginalized. The more fierce far right wingers, Hittize and Navarro, have the upper hand and dominated the current Sino-US trade negotiations.
White House "trade hawks" Wright Heze (Source: Network)
In the negotiations, we found that for the extremes, their purpose is not to balance trade, to make foreign investment more opportunities through structural reforms, they just want to limit China's development, and the restrictions are extremely extreme and rude: Interfering in our internal affairs and forcing us to give up opportunities for development is something we cannot tolerate.
The far right wing not only explicitly requires China not to engage in "Made in China 2025", but even grasps the phrase "the Chinese government agrees to the neutralization of state-owned enterprises in principle" and wants to engage in the US version of the "Inspection Group", which is stationed in China by their people. To supervise all levels of government in China to the level of the county government, and to stare at government expenditures to subsidize state-owned enterprises - this is a serious violation of our sovereignty and interference in our internal affairs.
If it is a pure trade issue, China's consideration of the overall situation of China and the United States will try to meet the requirements of the United States, because trade is a stabilizer for Sino-US relations. If we generalize trade issues, want to intervene in our sovereignty, and let us abandon opportunities for development, this is something we cannot tolerate and even does not conform to internationally recognized human rights principles. There are 1.4 billion people in China, one-fifth of humanity. We have the right to live a good life. If someone does not let us develop, let us be a wage earner for the United States forever. In the face of such a situation, we can only fight back.
► Observer Network: How do you evaluate the so-called “extreme pressure” strategy adopted by the US in the negotiations?
Jin Canrong: Extreme pressure is a word that Mr. Trump likes very much. He puts a set of negotiation methods in his book "The Art of Trading" - high goals, fierce propaganda, temporary changes so that the other party can't understand. - "Learning and using" to international relations. It is a pity that there is no effect now.
In 2017, he used extreme pressure to deal with North Korea. North Korea did not give face and resolutely stood up. Later, Trump said that he "fallen in love" with Kim Jong-un;
Recently, Iran has also put pressure on the Iranian limit. Iran is also very tough. As a result, Trump said on the Twitter last week that "our phone has been sent to the Iranian leader through the Swiss Embassy. Please call me quickly!";
On April 23, Bolton promoted a coup in Venezuela. The result was not completed. The US Special Envoy for Venezuela called the key figures at the beginning of the agreed coup, and the people shut down. He also had no face.
In addition, before in Syria, the United States was very fierce at first, but from the results it also lost to Russia. In the Ukrainian side, the United States also sold Ukraine. I think this man is a singer, but it’s a pity. They have not been successful, except for the neighbors of Canada and Mexico who have strong reliance on him. If it is related to the survival of the country, to North Korea, to Iran, then the other party is not afraid of you screaming, once people are ironic and not afraid of you, he becomes the "deaf" of the poor.
Trump's bestseller "The Art of Trading" (Source: Network)
A very difficult issue in Sino-US negotiations is that the way of thinking and behavior of China and the United States are fundamentally different. China is an "exception" in the world, and it is the best temper of all big powers - "everything is done for yourself" - what problems are always reflected on self-reflection, solve their own problems and ask others . This is exactly the opposite of the United States. It is the fault of others that the United States has a problem: in the 1980s, the United States was flooded with drugs. Instead of adjusting the domestic system and punishing drug sales and consumption, it ran to drug-producing countries and now encountered illegal immigrants. The problem is that he is not reforming at home, punishing the boss who uses illegal immigrants, but rushing to punish Mexico...
This kind of thinking difference between China and the United States makes it easy for the United States to produce a misjudgment. It feels that China is a bully and is a "paper tiger." Now it seems that we need to fight with them and let them know that China is a gentleman, very gentleman, but we also have a big stick with a thorn in our hands. If you let the United States misjudge, let him think that we are paper tigers, he may violate our bigger bottom line, such as the Taiwan issue, the South China Sea issue, that is troublesome.
► Observer website: After the Chinese issued anti-measures, US stocks hit the biggest decline during the year. Do you think that Trump will be forced to ease the tough stance in the long run, and whether the upcoming US election season will affect Sino-US trade negotiations, and what further counter-measures will China take?
Jin Canrong: An American friend told me that the collapse of the Chinese stock market is equivalent to a person jumping from the second floor. The collapse of the US stock market is equivalent to jumping off the 50th floor. The result is completely different. The second floor jump may hurt the ankle. Buildings jumping off the building are sure to die.
Wall Street's stock market accounts for 26% of US GDP, our GDP only accounts for 4%, and the difference is very far. And 80% of the financing channels of American companies rely on the stock market. Our country only accounts for 10%. We mainly rely on bank. The stock market has little impact on our national economy, but it is very big for them.
Therefore, they have always valued the stock market. In the course of the negotiations, they have always said that “talking is very good and very good” is to strive to maintain market confidence. I have recently fought a trade war, so they are a little anxious.
At present, the US goal is to hope that before the G20 meeting at the end of June. The G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, will go to the capital of the two countries. This is a good opportunity for the two heads of state to meet. In fact, the US has already begun to let the meeting go. Judging from the various winds in the United States, Americans will be very serious about forcing us to reach an agreement from now until the end of June, but I think the possibility is not great. The more likely result is the APEC meeting in November. The head of state can also meet, and the possibility of reaching an agreement at that time is great.
The most direct reason is that the election season officially began. Trump needs diplomatic achievements. If he can reach an agreement with China, it will be his most successful transcript. The message from the US side was that the United States introduced 56 clauses at the beginning of the negotiations. Later, the two sides refined into 142 items. We have already agreed to 80%, 40% of which will be done immediately, and 40% will have a time. table. That is to say, if an agreement is reached, at least 80% of them can get it. If the agreement is not reached, the cooked ducks will fly and they will not get anything. Therefore, I feel that although the United States is very fierce on the surface, the psychological still lingers on this transaction, it will not give up.
The three major US stock indexes opened lower and lower, setting the biggest decline since January 3 (Source: Observer Network)
There is another reason. I predict that the momentum of the US economy next year will not be better this year. Before Trump made a lot of stimulating factors, he gave the US economy four rounds of blood: tax cuts, overseas capital backflow, 2 trillion infrastructure investment plans, and financial controls. After the four-pronged chicken blood, the US economy is very Excited, the economic blood pressure is also somewhat high. The best thing about the US economy at the moment is the stock market. The real economy looks good at both employment and inflation.
However, there is a problem with these two data. The current labor participation rate in the United States is very low. Many people who are not employed or receive unemployment benefits are not included in the unemployment rate. Therefore, the current unemployment rate in the United States is a little fake; The quality is not high, and many are temporary. These hidden dangers have gradually accumulated, and the latter has gradually become serious. I estimate that the numbers will not be so good in the second half of the year, and there will be considerable risks next year. So at the end of the year, they know that next year's "wind tight", we must hurry to "snap".
Another important factor is that China's economy is stabilizing.
The Chinese economy is indeed a lack of development momentum in the past few years. Part of the reason is objective. We are in a difficult economic transition, transforming the original extensive economic growth into high value-added economic growth driven by technological innovation; The reason is that we are dragged down by the outside world. In the 2008 financial crisis, the economies of the United States, Europe, and Japan are not very good. Therefore, the world economy is mainly driven by China. Our family contributes to the world economy every year. One of them, everyone crossed the Yangtze River together and they always dragged us down. In addition, it has been affected by the lack of local government power and national economic and financial policies. All of these, from 2014 to 2018, our economy has had certain problems.
However, I think that by the end of this year, this trend will stabilize. One is that there is a certain result in the transformation of economic growth kinetic energy. The proportion of the new economy has increased, and another macro policy has begun to transform into expanding demand. Therefore, in the second half of the year, we will see that the economic situation in China and the United States will change, and the negotiating position of the United States will not become very good, which will help negotiate an agreement.
As for China’s further actions against the United States, I feel that our current counter-measures are very modest and very polite. We have imposed tariffs on some of the original $60 billion, the United States has 200 billion plus tariffs, and we are 60 billion, so it is very restrained. The main thing is to express a signal. We must use our reaction to let them know that their requirements must be reasonable. This is where we are different from some countries.
Just like the Korean War, we are talking and talking about playing, which is the normal state that we will experience in the future. I personally estimate that there will be some follow-up measures, specifically what is this, this is a state secret. But there must be follow-up, and it is not entirely limited to economic means.
► Observer website: This time, the Chinese attitude has received enthusiastic response from the nationals, but we also saw some anxiety and panic on the Internet. How do you think about such emotions, how should ordinary people face the impact of trade wars on us?
Jin Canrong: I think these voices mainly come from the following waves:
The first is the 40 years of reform and opening up. Many of us in China are deeply influenced by the West. There are complicated situations. It is true that many domestic people's interests are tied up with the United States. This is what the netizens say about "buying interests," and such interest groups are very powerful.
Secondly, in the six years since the 18th National Congress, the central government’s anti-corruption party has also touched the interests of some people. These people will also use this matter to express their dissatisfaction.
Third, the infiltration of neoliberalism into China in the past 40 years is very powerful. In the minds of the people who are deeply influenced by neoliberal ideology, what China does is wrong, and the United States is right.
In the end, a group of people who are dissatisfied with society and anti-social personality, take the opportunity to work hard and hope to create chaos.
If you look at the import and export figures of last year, in fact, the impact of trade wars on ordinary people is not large, mainly because of the psychological impact, and the reasons for this psychological impact are very complicated.
For example, last week's A-share market's general decline was that a group of institutions and investors used the trade negotiations to harvest the amaranth of retail investors. Under normal circumstances, a large amount of funds ran out of the SFC may find them trouble, but they used Trump's push. Specially said that this responsibility is Trump's, he scared us, you go find him.
For example, the comprador interest group does not start from the national interest, but puts the group's interests above the national interests. Because the result of the national concession is to let 1.4 billion people bear the cost, the benefit is that they are enjoyed by a few people, so they will talk very much. High-sounding: "There must be concessions from the overall situation." In fact, what is reflected later is his personal interests.
For example, some hostile forces took the opportunity to spread rumors, saying that the trade war made Vietnam account for the cheap, and on the Internet, said that Huawei had to pay 30,000 yuan to Qualcomm, etc. These rumors are very poor and worthless, but some people I still love to watch this kind of news, and I still read all the letters - I guess this is also part of the American public opinion war.
I think the last time I turned my face is that the United States has made his ammunition out. On May 13th, US time, Wright Heze announced that he would also be taxing the remaining 320 billion for discussion. I think this is actually a good thing. After the 570 billion yuan tax is levied 25%, his ammunition will be finished. After the ammunition is finished, the Chinese people can see the real impact of the trade war. Those who spread the panic on the Internet shouted "The end is over, you have to lose", and the result is a look, what? The other party has no bullets.
