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China's stimulus-fueled stock boom alarms Beijing

GoFlyKiteNow

Alfrescian
Loyal
Food for thought: The growth highlighted China's continued reliance on stimulus spending. What happens when all the money is exhausted.?


China's stimulus-fueled stock boom alarms Beijing

BEIJING: The crowd in the packed Guosen Securities office jostles around buzzing printers that spit out receipts for their share buys, hoping to cash in on China's stimulus-fueled stock market boom.

"The central government has to fulfill their promise of 8 percent economic growth," said Wu Jun, 62, a retired civil servant who has part of his life savings of 50,000 yuan ($7,300) and lives on a 2,000 yuan-a-month ($290 a month) pension in stocks.

"They'll come up with measures to keep the market in good shape."

But while investors expect the market - up more than 80 percent this year - to keep rising, Chinese leaders are alarmed.

They worry that too much of the $1 trillion lending binge by state banks that paid for China's nascent revival was diverted into stocks and real estate, raising the danger of a boom and bust cycle and higher inflation less than two years after an earlier stock market bubble burst.

Beijing is trying to tighten credit controls without derailing the economic revival or causing a market crash - a risky path at a time when Chinese leaders say a recovery is not firmly established.

"It's a very serious threat. The Chinese government is walking a tightrope," said Mark Williams, Asia economist for Capital Economics in London.

"There is the question of what happens if they rein in lending, because there is really no strong evidence that private sector demand is picking up."

Any hiccup in China's recovery could dent its rising demand for imported industrial raw materials and consumer goods, damaging hopes it might lead the global economy out of its worst downturn since the 1930s.

China's growth accelerated in the latest quarter to 7.9 percent over a year earlier while the United States and Europe struggle with recession.

The surge was driven by Beijing's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) plan to insulate China by pumping up domestic demand with heavy spending on building highways and other public works.

But the growth - up from 6.1 percent the previous quarter _ highlighted China's continued reliance on stimulus spending.

The big gains were in construction and other stimulus-fueled areas, while retail spending and other private sector activity lagged.

Bank credit soared to a record 7.1 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) in the first half of the year and the rate of lending is accelerating.

Loans in June expanded to more than double the May level at 1.5 trillion yuan ($220 billion).
 

Watchman

Alfrescian
Loyal
The bailouts given to banks allow them the banks freeplay and manipulate and hold stocks prices !
 

longbow

Alfrescian
Loyal
Ehhh not all the money going into lending. Quite a bit is going into infra. Take a look at this. And we are not talking about colonial era trains, over crowded, pollution and overcrowded with people hanging off the side or sitting on top. It is improving infra for such a large country and reducing the need to fly. Rail is the most efficient way to move lots of people. And it is electric power that they are using. And finally, this is not all talk. They project is moving along.

Latest Fortune article

http://cnnmoney.printthis.clickabil...bullet_train.fortune/index.htm&partnerID=2200


China's amazing new bullet train
This year Beijing will spend $50 billion on what will soon be the world's biggest high-speed train system. Here's how it works.
By Bill Powell, senior writer
Last Updated: August 6, 2009: 10:06 AM ET

(Fortune Magazine) -- When lunch break comes at the construction site between Shanghai and Suzhou in eastern China, Xi Tong-li and his fellow laborers bolt for some nearby trees and the merciful slivers of shade they provide. It's 95 degrees and humid -- a typically oppressive summer day in southeastern China -- but it's not just mad dogs and Englishmen who go out in the midday sun.

Xi is among a vast army of workers in China -- according to Beijing's Railroad Ministry, 110,000 were laboring on a single line, the Beijing-Shanghai route, at the beginning of 2009 -- who are building one of the largest infrastructure projects in history: a nationwide high-speed passenger rail network that, once completed, will be the largest, fastest, and most technologically sophisticated in the world.

Creating a rail system in a country of 1.3 billion people guarantees that the scale will be gargantuan. Almost 16,000 miles of new track will have been laid when the build-out is done in 2020. China will consume about 117 million tons of concrete just to construct the buttresses on which the tracks will be carried. The total amount of rolled steel on the Beijing-to-Shanghai line alone would be enough to construct 120 copies of the "Bird's Nest" -- the iconic Olympic stadium in Beijing. The top speed on trains that will run from Beijing to Shanghai will approach 220 miles an hour. Last year passengers in China made 1.4 billion rail journeys, and Chinese railroad officials expect that in a nation whose major cities are already choked with traffic, the figure could easily double over the next decade.

Construction on the vast multibillion-dollar project commenced in 2005 and will run through 2020. This year China will invest $50 billion in its new high-speed passenger rail system, more than double the amount spent in 2008. By the time the project is completed, Beijing will have pumped $300 billion into it. This effort is of more than passing historical interest. It can be seen properly as part and parcel of China's economic rise as a developing nation modernizing at warp speed, catching up with the rich world and in some instances -- like high-speed rail -- leapfrogging it entirely.

But this project symbolizes even more than that. This monumental infrastructure build-out has become the centerpiece of China's effort to navigate the global financial crisis and the ensuing recession. .............
 
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