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China's Economy: 'Noah's Ark' or the 'Titanic'
Noted Chinese economist He Qinglian discusses China’s economic conundrum. Jan 4, 2010
China’s economic strength as touted by Beijing propaganda does not square with the observations of the international financial community.
International economists, on the other hand, are troubled over China's real-estate super-bubble and believe the bogus prosperity—engineered by the Chinese regime through the use of asset bubbles—will inevitably result in a real depression.
CCP official, Zhou Yong, a staff member of the Central Party School, estimated that the number of unemployed migrant workers coupled with unemployed recent university graduates, totals about 50 million for 2009.
High Unemployment Confounds Domestic Demand
Unemployment in China is a very serious, long-standing problem—as well as a conundrum. Prior to the Beijing Olympic Games of August 2008, Tian Chengping, the former Labor and Social Security Minister, told the media that the number of unemployed was presumed to be 250 million, including 200 million migrant workers from rural areas and 50 million actual residents.
Accordingly, the 300 million that are unemployed constitutes 30 percent of the labor-age population in China. This approximates my calculation which was based on data published by the National Bureau of Statistics from previous years.
Frankly, increased participation in savings by the U.S. is not good news for China, since it means China’s biggest export market is reducing its contribution. According to the National Bureau of China, economic growth in the first three quarters of 2009 reached about 7.7 percent. Four percent was attributed to consumption and 7.3 percent to investment—exports offer a negative contribution to China’s economic growth.
Because of exports, one of the three horses is nearly at a standstill, while domestic demand is depressed. Under the circumstances, Beijing has to continue to promote the real estate bubble, ignoring all kinds of warnings, like an addict relying on drugs for the duration of its life.
Beijing always quotes the words of "foreign media" (such as overseas Chinese media invested in by the CCP) to prove that, so far, China is the "Noah's Ark" that will lead the world out of the economic recession, promoting the prospect that in the next ten to fifteen years, China will overtake the U.S. as the world's economic superpower.
However, at present, China's economic "prosperity" is actually only irrational exuberance based on its vacuous real estate bubble. If no other means can be found to salvage China's economy, the Chinese economy will become a "Titanic"—just as soon as the real estate bubble bursts.
.
Noted Chinese economist He Qinglian discusses China’s economic conundrum. Jan 4, 2010
China’s economic strength as touted by Beijing propaganda does not square with the observations of the international financial community.
International economists, on the other hand, are troubled over China's real-estate super-bubble and believe the bogus prosperity—engineered by the Chinese regime through the use of asset bubbles—will inevitably result in a real depression.
CCP official, Zhou Yong, a staff member of the Central Party School, estimated that the number of unemployed migrant workers coupled with unemployed recent university graduates, totals about 50 million for 2009.
High Unemployment Confounds Domestic Demand
Unemployment in China is a very serious, long-standing problem—as well as a conundrum. Prior to the Beijing Olympic Games of August 2008, Tian Chengping, the former Labor and Social Security Minister, told the media that the number of unemployed was presumed to be 250 million, including 200 million migrant workers from rural areas and 50 million actual residents.
Accordingly, the 300 million that are unemployed constitutes 30 percent of the labor-age population in China. This approximates my calculation which was based on data published by the National Bureau of Statistics from previous years.
Frankly, increased participation in savings by the U.S. is not good news for China, since it means China’s biggest export market is reducing its contribution. According to the National Bureau of China, economic growth in the first three quarters of 2009 reached about 7.7 percent. Four percent was attributed to consumption and 7.3 percent to investment—exports offer a negative contribution to China’s economic growth.
Because of exports, one of the three horses is nearly at a standstill, while domestic demand is depressed. Under the circumstances, Beijing has to continue to promote the real estate bubble, ignoring all kinds of warnings, like an addict relying on drugs for the duration of its life.
Beijing always quotes the words of "foreign media" (such as overseas Chinese media invested in by the CCP) to prove that, so far, China is the "Noah's Ark" that will lead the world out of the economic recession, promoting the prospect that in the next ten to fifteen years, China will overtake the U.S. as the world's economic superpower.
However, at present, China's economic "prosperity" is actually only irrational exuberance based on its vacuous real estate bubble. If no other means can be found to salvage China's economy, the Chinese economy will become a "Titanic"—just as soon as the real estate bubble bursts.
.
