China is Too Weak to Retaliate Economically Against the United States, Is Sick Man of Asia

[shockshiok]

very weak, china is wounded, talk cock only

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...-is-too-weak-to-retaliate-against-u-s-economy

China Is Carrying a Small Stick
There’s a reason it hasn’t followed through on so many of its blistering threats of economic retaliation against the U.S.


By
Michael Schuman
September 26, 2020, 8:00 PM EDT

China has thrown a wrench into the TikTok deal.
Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg
Michael Schuman is author of "Superpower Interrupted: The Chinese History of the World" and "The Miracle: The Epic Story of Asia's Quest for Wealth." He has previously written for TIME, the Wall Street Journal and several other publications.

China has flexed its muscles in the tussle over Chinese video-swapping app TikTok, using new export controls to complicate plans to sell the company’s U.S. operations to American investors. A proposed deal between TikTok’s Beijing-based parent, Bytedance Ltd., and Oracle Corp. now hangs on the verdict of Chinese regulators.

But the TikTok case is also something of an exception. As China’s relations with the U.S. deteriorate, Beijing has shown it is often incapable of following through on its blistering threats of retaliation. And for that, China’s leaders have no one to blame but themselves.

One of the hallmarks of a superpower is an ability to project power and influence events and policies far from its own shores. China still lacks the tools to do that in any sustained way. Whereas the U.S., for instance, has long capitalized on the dollar’s indispensability to impose its will on individuals, companies and other nations, China has no similar means of extending its reach.


That weakness effectively lost China its recent tit-for-tat sanctions spat with the U.S. After the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Chinese officials involved in the abuse of minority Uighurs and the crackdown on democracy advocates in Hong Kong, the Chinese government tried to retaliate against Republican Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, among others in the U.S. Unless the targeted Americans wandered into Chinese jurisdiction or happened to own Chinese assets, however, China’s unspecified penalties would be largely symbolic. By contrast, Chinese banks have been placed in the humiliating position of enforcing U.S. sanctions against China’s own officials because of their continued need for dollar financing.

Part of China’s handicap is a legacy of history: The U.S. dollar has been so dominant for so long that replacing it has proven practically impossible. But the glacial pace of financial reform on the mainland is also a factor. Because China’s policymakers won’t allow the yuan to move freely around the world and still massage its value, the currency’s appeal in global trade and finance remains constrained. In 2019, the dollar featured on one side of 88% of foreign exchange trades globally; the yuan, a mere 4%.

China’s strict controls on capital flows and foreign investors compound the problem by curtailing access to and demand for Chinese assets. That makes it far less likely an American official such as Rubio might hold yuan-denominated investments that could be targeted. By contrast, the more open U.S. economic system has been a magnet for Chinese money. Chinese have been the top buyers of American residential real estate for eight consecutive years.
China’s dollar dependence even forces Beijing to shore up the economic stability of its adversary. Despite renewed rumblings about reducing its trillion-dollar stash of U.S. Treasuries, China is virtually certain not to follow through. Not only does it lack other options for storing its dollars, selling the Treasuries would undermine the value of its holdings, destabilize global bond and currency markets, and thus risk China’s own wealth.
Here again, years of bad economic policies — suppressing domestic consumption, controlling its currency and amassing external surpluses — have constrained China. Having made only limited progress in the long-awaited shift to a consumption-led growth model, a resurgence of those surpluses will likely add to China’s dollar stockpile, ensnaring Beijing even further.
Treasuries aren’t the only potential weapon China has had to keep sheathed. Officials have repeatedly threatened to blacklist American firms in response to U.S. prohibitions on telecom giant Huawei Technologies Co. Access to its large and lucrative market is China’s greatest leverage and such a step could indeed inflict some damage on U.S. companies with significant sales in China.
That list, however, has never materialized. Nor has Beijing ditched the “phase one” trade deal it inked with the U.S. in January or disrupted the extensive supply chains of American brands and retailers in the country.

That’s largely because China is still a middle-income economy, playing catch-up in technology; it requires the products U.S. firms sell and the jobs they create. China’s leaders know they’ve tied their legitimacy to elevated growth targets and thriving employment. Especially now, with the world economy battered by the Covid-19 pandemic, the government can’t risk further economic disruption.

The U.S. has no cause to be complacent, however. Many of these Chinese disabilities may well be temporary. Earlier in September, the Chinese government finally released guidelines for placing U.S. companies on its threatened blacklist, an indication that it might be preparing to act. As China’s economy advances, its willingness and ability to project power will expand, too. The U.S. may want to press its advantage while it still can.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the author of this story:
Michael Schuman at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

 

[millim6868]

Remind me of confiscated armour vehicle by them , PAPigs are screwed in the ass
. The world will not trust china ppl as they are cunning

 

[laksaboy]

China became world's second largest economy because of western capital after it joined the WTO. If that capital leaves, China goes back to becoming North Korea.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

One thing we have that China needs
From 2000 to 2019 China’s general public revenue increased. But 2020 is a different story. Picture: SuppliedSource:Supplied

With provincial governments only receiving around 50 per cent of national revenue, but being responsible for 85 per cent of overall government expenditure, provincial governments face an uphill battle as the Chinese economy continues to recover.

But despite an overall attitude of relative thrift from Beijing and an escalation of the country’s trade war with Australia, China is consuming our iron ore at a record pace, paying near top dollar prices.

Iron ore imports remain high in China as it builds its way out of economic hardship.Source:Supplied

This serves to illustrate the increasingly two-speed nature of the Chinese economy. While heavy industry and construction continue to boom, the story told by the wallets of Chinese consumers is quite a different tale.

Despite Beijing’s best efforts, inflation-adjusted retail sales are still down year on year according to the latest data. This compares extremely unfavourably with the around 7 per cent year on year growth the official statistics were recording before coronavirus reared its ugly head.

For decades, China has been trying to slowly rebalance its economy away from real estate and infrastructure construction, towards a more traditional consumer and services driven model.

In his last major speech as General Secretary of the Communist Party, Hu Jintao (Xi Jinping’s immediate predecessor) in 2012 called for economic reforms that would increase consumer spending, ultimately with the goal of reducing Beijing’s dependence on export and fixed asset investment driven growth.

But in this time of crisis it appears Beijing has fallen back into old habits, of using infrastructure and real estate construction driven growth to fire up its faltering economy, in the same way it did back during the global financial crisis.

On balance this is good news for Australia, specifically iron ore exports.

Mount Whaleback iron ore mine in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Iron ore is essential for China’s recovery. Picture: GettySource:Getty Images

Despite the rising tensions between Beijing and Canberra and the growing list of Aussie exports hit by Chinese trade actions, iron ore remains our one export China absolutely cannot do without.

In an ironic twist of fate, the more China’s economy potentially struggles to fire amid a backdrop of global economic uncertainty, the more Aussie iron ore it needs to keep its go-to industry’s booming to support its overall economic growth.

Even Chinese Premier Li Keqiang recently acknowledged that there were issues with China’s ongoing economic recovery. During a meeting of the Chinese Communist Party State Council, Li conceded that consumer spending was the “weak link” in the economic recovery thus far. He went on to state that in order to increase consumer consumption, “we need to explore new methods”.

China expert and Peking University finance professor Michael Pettis recently mused on Twitter that Li was right about China needing to explore new methods to drive consumer growth.

But he ultimately concluded: “For all its talk of “upgrading consumption”, Beijing has no idea of how to deliver the income increases that are required.”

Despite an ongoing trade war between China and Australia, they’re still importing iron ore. Chinese workers at a port in Qingdao in China’s eastern Shandong province. Picture: STR/AFP/GettySource:AFP

Despite the overwhelming strength of Chinese industry and construction sectors, the less than stellar recovery being experienced by regular everyday consumers leaves the broader Chinese economy in a somewhat precarious position.

During the global financial crisis (GFC) the stimulus from Beijing was so large that China seemingly powered through the crisis relatively easily to the casual observer, but it came at a very heavy cost for Beijing.

Debt levels skyrocketed to new heights, giving rise to concerns that there were growing risks of systemic issues from the ever-increasing mountain of debt.

This is what has left China in the paradoxical situation it finds itself in. On one hand Beijing knows there are risks that come with another big cash splash and is attempting to be relatively thrifty where it can.

On the other, it knows that its consumers have not bounced back to their previous levels of strength yet and that its growth engine of infrastructure and real estate construction needs to be fuelled by further stimulus.

If the global economy bounces back strongly from the pandemic in the New Year as stimulus is increasingly tapered and withdrawn, Beijing may once again attempt to place its focus on rebalancing its economy towards a more consumer driven model.

But if the recovery of the world economy falters and Chinese industrial productions begins to suffer from weaker global demand, Beijing may increasingly look to its old tried and tested way out of a difficult crisis. More infrastructure and real estate construction – fuelled by Australian iron ore.

Tarric Brooker is a freelance journalist and social commentator | @AvidCommentator

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Is ah tiong land that bad?

 

[kryonlight]

Preparing for the US-China War of 2022 ...

VIDEO: USS Carl Vinson Preparing for First F-35C, ‘Advanced Carrier Air Wing’ Deployment

 

[Boliao]

Is ah tiong land that bad?

Don't listen to these keyboard warriors who knows shit about reality other than the reports they read. Just Google images of US cities and Chinese cities and the true is most visible. If you still cannot tell, the US is in debt and the Chinese is their 2nd largest creditor who is rapidly selling their US debt and dollar. The Chinese is showing considerable restraint because US politics is temporary and Trump is hell bent on destroying US credibility and world standing so why not let them. Soon, USD will cease to the be world's reserve currency, the US will cease to be a world power and it'll be all over without firing a bullet; unless the US shoots first.

 

[syed putra]

China was doing ok until xi jinping came in,.

 

[leeisphtui]

China became world's second largest economy because of western capital after it joined the WTO. If that capital leaves, China goes back to becoming North Korea.

well said

 

[leeisphtui]

Don't listen to these keyboard warriors who knows shit about reality other than the reports they read. Just Google images of US cities and Chinese cities and the true is most visible. If you still cannot tell, the US is in debt and the Chinese is their 2nd largest creditor who is rapidly selling their US debt and dollar. The Chinese is showing considerable restraint because US politics is temporary and Trump is hell bent on destroying US credibility and world standing so why not let them. Soon, USD will cease to the be world's reserve currency, the US will cease to be a world power and it'll be all over without firing a bullet; unless the US shoots first.

I see poor people everywhere in China and whilst their counterparts in Europe and the First World live very well. In the United States for example they live in giant houses and drive big massive Ford and Dodge Pickup Trucks so you are not correct.

This is why Chinese People want to go to United States and Europe:

 

[laksaboy]

Don't listen to these keyboard warriors who knows shit about reality other than the reports they read. Just Google images of US cities and Chinese cities and the true is most visible. If you still cannot tell, the US is in debt and the Chinese is their 2nd largest creditor who is rapidly selling their US debt and dollar. The Chinese is showing considerable restraint because US politics is temporary and Trump is hell bent on destroying US credibility and world standing so why not let them. Soon, USD will cease to the be world's reserve currency, the US will cease to be a world power and it'll be all over without firing a bullet; unless the US shoots first.

Ah yes, the 'China will dominate this century' narrative. A lie often told enough becomes the truth.

Just hope those very sincere believers of this myth don't commit suicide if China becomes essentially Greater North Korea. A pariah nation of the world, heavily sanctioned.

By the way, China can indeed sell US debt and dollar. But another country will buy them up. Doing that, however, will crush China's economy. Come at the king, you best not miss.

 

[kryonlight]

Don't listen to these keyboard warriors who knows shit about reality other than the reports they read. Just Google images of US cities and Chinese cities and the true is most visible. If you still cannot tell, the US is in debt and the Chinese is their 2nd largest creditor who is rapidly selling their US debt and dollar. The Chinese is showing considerable restraint because US politics is temporary and Trump is hell bent on destroying US credibility and world standing so why not let them. Soon, USD will cease to the be world's reserve currency, the US will cease to be a world power and it'll be all over without firing a bullet; unless the US shoots first.

The US will shoot first, and CCP will be history within a decade.

 

[laksaboy]

The US will shoot first, and CCP will be history within a decade.

Decade? Try months to a year.

 

[kryonlight]

Decade? Try months to a year.

Not possible. A behemoth doesn't expire so easily. It will struggle until its last breath.

 

[laksaboy]

Not possible. A behemoth doesn't expire so easily. It will struggle until its last breath.

A grossly inflated behemoth. The last breath is near.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

One thing we have that China needs
From 2000 to 2019 China’s general public revenue increased. But 2020 is a different story. Picture: Supplied
From 2000 to 2019 China’s general public revenue increased. But 2020 is a different story. Picture: SuppliedSource:Supplied

With provincial governments only receiving around 50 per cent of national revenue, but being responsible for 85 per cent of overall government expenditure, provincial governments face an uphill battle as the Chinese economy continues to recover.

But despite an overall attitude of relative thrift from Beijing and an escalation of the country’s trade war with Australia, China is consuming our iron ore at a record pace, paying near top dollar prices.


–– ADVERTISEMENT ––

Iron ore imports remain high in China as it builds its way out of economic hardship.Source:Supplied

This serves to illustrate the increasingly two-speed nature of the Chinese economy. While heavy industry and construction continue to boom, the story told by the wallets of Chinese consumers is quite a different tale.

Despite Beijing’s best efforts, inflation-adjusted retail sales are still down year on year according to the latest data. This compares extremely unfavourably with the around 7 per cent year on year growth the official statistics were recording before coronavirus reared its ugly head.

For decades, China has been trying to slowly rebalance its economy away from real estate and infrastructure construction, towards a more traditional consumer and services driven model.

In his last major speech as General Secretary of the Communist Party, Hu Jintao (Xi Jinping’s immediate predecessor) in 2012 called for economic reforms that would increase consumer spending, ultimately with the goal of reducing Beijing’s dependence on export and fixed asset investment driven growth.

But in this time of crisis it appears Beijing has fallen back into old habits, of using infrastructure and real estate construction driven growth to fire up its faltering economy, in the same way it did back during the global financial crisis.

On balance this is good news for Australia, specifically iron ore exports.

Mount Whaleback iron ore mine in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Iron ore is essential for China’s recovery. Picture: GettySource:Getty Images

Despite the rising tensions between Beijing and Canberra and the growing list of Aussie exports hit by Chinese trade actions, iron ore remains our one export China absolutely cannot do without.

In an ironic twist of fate, the more China’s economy potentially struggles to fire amid a backdrop of global economic uncertainty, the more Aussie iron ore it needs to keep its go-to industry’s booming to support its overall economic growth.

Even Chinese Premier Li Keqiang recently acknowledged that there were issues with China’s ongoing economic recovery. During a meeting of the Chinese Communist Party State Council, Li conceded that consumer spending was the “weak link” in the economic recovery thus far. He went on to state that in order to increase consumer consumption, “we need to explore new methods”.

China expert and Peking University finance professor Michael Pettis recently mused on Twitter that Li was right about China needing to explore new methods to drive consumer growth.

But he ultimately concluded: “For all its talk of “upgrading consumption”, Beijing has no idea of how to deliver the income increases that are required.”

Despite an ongoing trade war between China and Australia, they’re still importing iron ore. Chinese workers at a port in Qingdao in China’s eastern Shandong province. Picture: STR/AFP/GettySource:AFP

Despite the overwhelming strength of Chinese industry and construction sectors, the less than stellar recovery being experienced by regular everyday consumers leaves the broader Chinese economy in a somewhat precarious position.

During the global financial crisis (GFC) the stimulus from Beijing was so large that China seemingly powered through the crisis relatively easily to the casual observer, but it came at a very heavy cost for Beijing.

Debt levels skyrocketed to new heights, giving rise to concerns that there were growing risks of systemic issues from the ever-increasing mountain of debt.

This is what has left China in the paradoxical situation it finds itself in. On one hand Beijing knows there are risks that come with another big cash splash and is attempting to be relatively thrifty where it can.

On the other, it knows that its consumers have not bounced back to their previous levels of strength yet and that its growth engine of infrastructure and real estate construction needs to be fuelled by further stimulus.

If the global economy bounces back strongly from the pandemic in the New Year as stimulus is increasingly tapered and withdrawn, Beijing may once again attempt to place its focus on rebalancing its economy towards a more consumer driven model.

But if the recovery of the world economy falters and Chinese industrial productions begins to suffer from weaker global demand, Beijing may increasingly look to its old tried and tested way out of a difficult crisis. More infrastructure and real estate construction – fuelled by Australian iron ore.

Tarric Brooker is a freelance journalist and social commentator | @AvidCommentator

 

[laksaboy]

But if the recovery of the world economy falters and Chinese industrial productions begins to suffer from weaker global demand, Beijing may increasingly look to its old tried and tested way out of a difficult crisis. More infrastructure and real estate construction – fuelled by Australian iron ore.

Factories are already moving out of China. And judging by the diplomatic relationship between China and Australia recently, I doubt Australia wants to sell food to China even if the latter experiences a famine. Iron ore is a strategic resource, and you wouldn't want to export a strategic resource to a enemy state.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Factories are already moving out of China. And judging by the diplomatic relationship between China and Australia recently, I doubt Australia wants to sell food to China even if the latter experiences a famine. Iron ore is a strategic resource, and you wouldn't want to export a strategic resource to a enemy state.

If kangaroo land dont sell the iron ore..kangaroo land is fucked. No one will buy n ah tiong land buys 75% of the product. No one else comes close to replacing the tiongs.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Factories are already moving out of China. And judging by the diplomatic relationship between China and Australia recently, I doubt Australia wants to sell food to China even if the latter experiences a famine. Iron ore is a strategic resource, and you wouldn't want to export a strategic resource to a enemy state.

In addition. 90% of kangaroo land iron ore is exported to tiong land . Tiong land also diversifying its iron ore imports. Buying from south Africa and brazil. Soon kangaroo land will be ignored by the tiongs. Kangaroo land depends alot on tiong market. Basically tiongland is kangaroo land biggest customer. Kangaroo land is fucked without tiong land

Should Australia be worried by Beijing’s iron ore security posturing? - Splash247
Jason Jiang
Jason Jiang August 12, 2020
3 9,327 5 minutes read

BHP
Chief correspondent Jason Jiang digs into the souring of relations between China and Australia to ask what this could mean for iron ore trade flows.

Splash’s report two weeks ago on China’s decision to construct a raft of new very large ore carrier (VLOC) terminals – interpreted by some analysts as part of a bigger geopolitical play to cut the nation’s reliance on Australia for its iron ore imports amid a severe souring of diplomatic ties – has been read by nearly 80,000 readers, sparking considerable debate on the future of this vital dry bulk channel of business.

Beijing’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) last month gave the green light for four new VLOC terminals to be built in Rizhao, Yantai and Lanshan in Shandong province, and Sanduao in Fujian province to go alongside the existing seven VLOC terminals.

“Commentary on the move has speculated that Beijing is seeking to ensure greater ‘iron ore security’ for the future, not only by opening itself to a wider range of of markets, including Brazil, but also to countries where there is less chance of political disagreement,” Alphabulk pointed out in a weekly report.

Not all analysts agree however – the fact is the two nations need each other for the time being.

Australia, which exports 90% of its iron ore to China, has been a vocal opponent of China’s telecoms company Huawei, and also recently joined the US in opposing China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea. It was also the first country to come out and call for an international enquiry into China’s handling of Covid-19. China has responded by restricting imports of Australian coal and barley recently, but there’s no sign Beijing is about to switch the taps off for Australian iron ore.

Despite all the political sabre rattling, China has increased its iron ore imports from Australia this year, not because they want to but because there is no alternative

Data from IHS Markit shows Australia supplied more than 380m tonnes of iron ore to China in the first half of 2020, while Brazil, the second largest iron ore source for China, shipped less than 100m tonnes of iron ore to China over the same period.

Daejin Lee, lead shipping analyst at IHS Markit, reckons that there is no reliable alternative source in the world to replace Australian iron ore as even if Brazil exports its entire iron ore production to China, it may cover only half of Australia’s iron ore supply.

“Chinese demand of iron ore is likely to remain strong in the near term because of robust steel demand, backed by Chinese stimulus packages. However, a longer monsoon season in Brazil this year already subdued Brazil iron ore supplies, and even now, supply concern continues with the increased cases of the coronavirus in Brazil. Also the level of iron ore port stockpiles in China is well below the historical average,” Lee says.

Ralph Leszczynski, head of research at shipbroking house Banchero Costa, shares a similar point of view with his IHS Markit counterpart.

“This year, despite all the political sabre rattling, China increased its iron ore imports from Australia by 8.4% year-on-year in the first half, not because they want to but because there is no alternative. The bottleneck on the Brazil-China trade at the moment is down to the lack of Brazilian export capacity, not lack of VLOC terminals in China,” Leszczynski maintains.

However, in the long term, Leszczynski believes the situation might change as it would be in China’s interest to diversify its iron ore imports for a variety of reasons – not only political, but also commercial.

The ongoing development of Chinese deepwater ports for the valemax bulk carriers is a clear signal that Beijing is seeking to reduce its reliance on Australian iron ore

According to BIMCO, China imported a record 112.7m tonnes of iron ore in July, just shy of 10m tonnes above the previous record. July thereby marked the fourth month in a row that the country’s iron ore imports exceeded the corresponding month the year before. In the first seven months of the year, iron ore imports are up 11.8%, or an additional 69.5m tonnes, which is the equivalent of 300 extra VLOC loads.

The Chinese appetite for iron ore, and thereby rising demand for shipping, has boosted capesize earnings which averaged $24,500 per day in July.

“Geopolitics is certainly finding its way in the dry bulk business these years, and increasingly this year. Not only tankers can enjoy a freight rate upside to this lack of international cooperation/understanding – which it basically represents,” writes Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, in an email to Splash.

Sand reckons China has been very discreet not to include iron ore into its trade restrictions against Australia.

“Even though Australia is more reliant on China (+90% of exports) than China is on Australia (+60% of imports), they can’t stop Australian imports overnight. This year’s strong imports numbers including the record high July data of 12m mt suggest that they could be in for stockpiling ahead of a trade dispute, which would harm Australian exports,” Sand reckons.

In the medium to longer term, Sand believes alternatives to the “iron ore mountain” of Australia are nowhere to be found. Higher reliance on domestic scrap metal is the best option for China, he suggests.

More in line with the original Alphabulk report is Tarric Brooker, an Australia-based journalist and economic commentator.

“The ongoing development of Chinese deepwater ports for the valemax bulk carriers is a clear signal that Beijing is seeking to reduce its reliance on Australian iron ore,” Brooker argues. “However, it will take years for Brazilian iron ore producers and those of other competitor nations to ramp up supply to levels where China’s reliance on Australian iron ore can be drastically reduced.”

Brooker reckons as much as the Chinese government may want to punish Canberra for its perceived disobedience by targeting Australia’s number one export, any course of action that has a long-term impact on supplies into China, ultimately hurts Beijing too, but there is a possibility that Beijing could limit or even stop imports of Australian iron ore for a period of months.

“With domestic Chinese iron ore production set to ramp up and Brazilian iron ore exports resumed at their pre-Covid volume, large port and steel mill stocks of iron ore could potentially allow for something like a temporary embargo or a significant limit on imports of Australian iron ore for perhaps a period of months,” Brooker says.

Reid I’Anson, senior commodity economist at commodity data intelligence provider Kpler, reckons that in the short run, Brazil would likely stand to benefit the most from a further escalation in trade tensions between Australia and China.

India, he says, is another interesting country of note given the flare-up in tensions with China over the past couple of months. In 2019, India shipped on average 1.8m tonnes in iron ore volumes towards China. This trade flow has actually been a bit stronger in 2020 given the domestic economic problems within India.

In the longer term, I’Anson thinks it is likely Africa will increasingly meet Chinese iron ore demand with countries like Mauritania, Mozambique, Guinea and Gabon seeing increases in investment and development over the coming years.

Last year, a China-backed consortium won the right to develop part of the Simandou project, which holds estimated reserves of more than 2bn tonnes of high-grade iron ore in Guinea.

Simandou has been considered as the largest high-grade iron ore deposit in the world, but it has struggled to enter production for years. The project is now expected start export iron ore from 2026. It comes at a time where West Africa to China cape trades are taking off in a big way, led by bauxite exports.

“The pandemic has changed a number of assumptions, the biggest of which includes the possibility of supply chain re-shoring or at least, re-positioning out of China. How this might influence iron ore demand outside China remains to be seen and will be important for Australia, a country that is likely going to need new sources of demand in the future. Brazil is also a big question mark. The country has serious issues when it comes to stability and while the assumption that Brazilian production will remain constant into the future is certainly the likely outcome, there is considerable variance within this outcome set,” I’Anson concludes.

Tags

 

[mudhatter]

The U.S. dollar has been so dominant for so long that replacing it has proven practically impossible. But the glacial pace of financial reform on the mainland is also a factor.....In 2019, the dollar featured on one side of 88% of foreign exchange trades globally; the yuan, a mere 4%.

yankee $ = 88/200 or 44% of all transactions

tiong rmb = 4/200 or 2% of all transactions



China speeeeed!



After 4 freaking decades, with the world's largest population, 4.5 times as big as yankees, still can't surpass Yanks.




Slanties really are an inferior lot.