ChiCons bagus...exports the virus overseas n fucked up the world economy...than they recover faster
China's economy recovers rapidly but experts forecast much slower recovery from now on
Posted 2h
The Chinese economy is making gains after COVID-19 rattled the economy.( AP: Ju Peng Via Xinhua )
Share
China's economy has bounced back after last year's deep coronavirus slump, propelled by stronger demand at home and abroad and continued government support for smaller firms.
Key points:
- Analysts say China's growth will return to modest levels through the rest of the year
- Manufacturing and consumer activity has returned to pre-coronavirus levels
- Exports have led the country's economic recovery
But the brisk expansion, heavily skewed by the plunge in activity a year earlier, is expected to moderate later this year as the government turns its attention to reining in financial risks in overheating parts of the economy.
Gross domestic product (GDP) jumped 18.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2021 compared to a year earlier, official data showed on Friday.
That was the fastest growth since quarterly records began in 1992 and was up from 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter last year.
"The upshot is that with the economy already above its pre-virus trend and policy support being withdrawn, China's post-COVID rebound is levelling off," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics.
"We expect quarter-on-quarter growth to remain modest during the rest of this year as the recent boom in construction and exports unwinds, pulling activity back towards trend."
Manufacturing in China has returned to normal after 2020.( Yang Lei: AAP )
Aided by strict virus containment measures and emergency relief for businesses, the economy has recovered from a steep 6.8 per cent slump in the first three months of 2020, when an outbreak of COVID-19 in the central city of Wuhan rapidly became a crippling pandemic that has killed about 3 million worldwide.
China's rebound has been led by exports as factories race to fill overseas orders, and more recently a steady pick-up in consumption as shoppers return to restaurants, malls and car dealerships.
Retail sales increased 34.2 per cent year-on-year in March, beating a 28 per cent gain expected by analysts and stronger than the 33.8 per cent jump seen in the first two months of the year.
Other data, however, showed a moderation in expansion, with quarter-on-quarter growth slowing to 0.6 per cent in January-March from a revised 3.2 per cent in the previous quarter, missing expectations for a 1.5 per cent increase.
Second-quarter growth estimated to drop
Consumers are heading back to the shops as restrictions ease in China.( ABC News: Bill Birtles )
National Bureau of Statistics spokeswoman Liu Aihua said while the economy started 2021 on a firm footing, the services sector and smaller firms still faced challenges, while consumer inflation was likely to remain moderate.
Data last week showed consumer prices rising at only a modest pace in March, even as factory gate inflation hit a near three-year high.
Li Wei, economist at Standard Chartered in Shanghai, expected second-quarter growth to slow to 7 per cent.
China's economy shrank 6.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 following lockdowns to curb the spread of COVID-19.( AP: Ng Han Guan )
The world's second-largest economy is expected to grow 8.6 per cent in 2021, according to a Reuters poll, which would easily beat the government's 2021 annual growth target of above 6 per cent.
China's GDP grew just 2.3 per cent last year.
That was its weakest expansion in 44 years but still made it the only major economy to avoid contraction as other industrial powers struggled with the pandemic hit.
With the economy back on a more solid footing, China's central bank is turning its focus to cooling credit growth to help contain financial risks.
However, it is treading cautiously to avoid derailing the recovery, with policymakers vowing not to make any sudden policy shifts.
Authorities are especially concerned about financial risks involving the country's overheated property market and have asked banks to trim their loan books this year to guard against asset bubbles.
Separate data on Friday showed new home prices in China rising at the fastest pace in seven months in March, with gains spreading to more cities as red-hot demand defied government efforts to cool the market.
ABC/Reuters
