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Can IMF Forecasts Be Trusted?

makapaaa

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published May 8, 2009
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</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>IMF says it overstated east Europe financing needs

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(WASHINGTON) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday it overstated external financing needs of some eastern European countries in a recent report, largely because of double-counting errors, and would publish corrected data soon.

<TABLE class=picBoxL cellSpacing=2 width=100 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=caption><TD>United front: The Polish government has said repeatedly the economy is one of the strongest in the region and not in need of IMF aid like those offered to countries like Hungary or Ukraine </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>At issue is a table the IMF included in its Global Financial Stability Report, which was released on April 21, showing many eastern European countries had large financing needs.
The IMF highlighted this as a concern because many eastern European countries are highly dependent on western European banks for financing, and the global financial crisis has disrupted the flow of credit.
The deteriorating financial condition of emerging Europe could exacerbate banking troubles in western Europe, the IMF said. It was not immediately clear how large the IMF's revisions might be.
'We are in the process of correcting numbers . . . regarding refinancing needs of countries listed in the table,' IMF spokeswoman Simonetta Nardin said in an e-mail to Reuters in response to a question about the figures. 'We expect to have the corrected numbers published soon.'
The IMF said the corrections mostly involved double-counting errors, although in the case of the Czech Republic the figure initially published was the result of a typographical error.
'We regret these errors, and will review the IMF's internal procedures according to the lessons learned,' Ms Nardin said.
Last month, the IMF slashed its economic growth forecasts for many eastern European countries, citing the credit crisis, slumping demand and falling energy prices.
Yesterday the fund approved a one-year, US$20.6 billion line of credit to Poland.
The Polish government has said repeatedly the economy is one of the strongest in the region and not in need of IMF aid like that awarded to countries like Hungary or Ukraine.
It plans to treat the extension of credit as a 'precautionary' measure, meaning it does not intend to draw on the funds, the IMF said in a statement.
'We are now far safer from the severe turmoil in the global economy,' Polish Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski told reporters in Warsaw on Wednesday. 'It proves that the IMF considers both Poland, and its economic policy, to be strong.'
The European Commission earlier this week said it expects Polish gross domestic product will contract 1.4 per cent this year. Mr Rostowski rejected the forecast, saying he thought the commission hadn't taken into account the 'resilience' of the economy and adding he expected growth slightly above zero in 2009.
Poland will become the second country after Mexico to use the IMF's new flexible credit line as its economy faces the sharpest slowdown in around a decade.
Poland's currency, the zloty, lost almost a third of its value from a record high in July as investors fled emerging-market assets because of the credit crunch. -- Reuters, Bloomberg

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