Can an Opposition Alliance kick Lee Hsien Loong out of AMK GRC?

[FuckSamLeong]

A little bird whispered in my ear that we could end the Lee's hold on Singapore's political hegemony by kicking out the PM in his own GRC.

All it takes is the willingness of all opposition parties to co-operate on just one mission. One to make history that will cause the greatest upheaval in the Singapore political landscape.

Is it really mission impossible? Let's consider the components that will give consideration to it not being a pipe dream.

We have the certainty of a historical 33% opposition vote.

A well known and respected woman candidate with an agenda to further the Singaporean women's voice in Parliament to the fore will generate at least another 10% from the female voters.

That gives a 43% share of the votes!

You want to tell me the other four male candidates can't generate another 8% of votes from the rest of the constituents to make it a 51% winning margin?

Tell me I am daydreaming or smoking stuff that I should not!

 

[Boliao]

The will NEVER let LHL lose the AMK ward. Because if he does, then he can no longer hold office and be the PM or even a cabinet minister.

It is the same reason why LKY will never lose Cheng San even if he did.

 

[FuckSamLeong]

The will NEVER let LHL lose the AMK ward. Because if he does, then he can no longer hold office and be the PM or even a cabinet minister.

It is the same reason why LKY will never lose Cheng San even if he did.

Please expound on how "they will never let LHL lose the AMK ward" in lieu of the scenario I had proposed?

 

[QXD]

I would expect PAP to use Prataman's presidential power to declare any election landslide against PAP null and void.

 

[Sideswipe]

LHL can be NMP.

I have no problems with that. The country can use someone of his experiences in parliament.

 

[Alamaking]

A little bird whispered in my ear that we could end the Lee's hold on Singapore's political hegemony by kicking out the PM in his own GRC.

All it takes is the willingness of all opposition parties to co-operate on just one mission. One to make history that will cause the greatest upheaval in the Singapore political landscape.

Is it really mission impossible? Let's consider the components that will give consideration to it not being a pipe dream.

We have the certainty of a historical 33% opposition vote.

A well known and respected woman candidate with an agenda to further the Singaporean women's voice in Parliament to the fore will generate at least another 10% from the female voters.

That gives a 43% share of the votes!

You want to tell me the other four male candidates can't generate another 8% of votes from the rest of the constituents to make it a 51% winning margin?

Tell me I am daydreaming or smoking stuff that I should not!

Dun give PAP idea leh, wait election nearer, they will say Prime Minister not need to contest in any GRC, he is irreplaceable, LOL

 

[Areopagus]

Actually the last GE showed that a swing of around 10% was all that was needed....

Should not be that difficult with the track record of mee siam mai hum, MSK escape, unaffordable housing etc

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

There is a problem with your calculations.

Let's say it is a 5 seat GRC. The intuitive idea is if each candidate can win 10% of votes, then we can win liao, right? No.

This is because the supporters of each candidates could well be overlapping. For example, I support A as well as B. But it doesn't add up to 2 votes but only 1.

Thus, it is not easy to do such little mathematical calcualtions.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[FuckSamLeong]

There is a problem with your calculations.

Let's say it is a 5 seat GRC. The intuitive idea is if each candidate can win 10% of votes, then we can win liao, right? No.

This is because the supporters of each candidates could well be overlapping. For example, I support A as well as B. But it doesn't add up to 2 votes but only 1.

Thus, it is not easy to do such little mathematical calcualtions.

Goh Meng Seng

Isn't the die hard 33% opposition vote across the board ie., the five precincts in a GRC?

 

[elephanto]

what GMS means is your extra 10% that support woman candidate in yr example may already be part of the 33% traditional opp supporters (or part thereof). So it's not 33+10 so straightforward.

the other difficulty also lies in the PAP-PA-RC-CCC-CC-CDC-Town Council machinery in some GRC better than others in terms of ground intel & recce..

 

[exgoon]

A little bird whispered in my ear that we could end the Lee's hold on Singapore's political hegemony by kicking out the PM in his own GRC.

All it takes is the willingness of all opposition parties to co-operate on just one mission. One to make history that will cause the greatest upheaval in the Singapore political landscape.

Is it really mission impossible? Let's consider the components that will give consideration to it not being a pipe dream.

We have the certainty of a historical 33% opposition vote.

A well known and respected woman candidate with an agenda to further the Singaporean women's voice in Parliament to the fore will generate at least another 10% from the female voters.

That gives a 43% share of the votes!

You want to tell me the other four male candidates can't generate another 8% of votes from the rest of the constituents to make it a 51% winning margin?

Tell me I am daydreaming or smoking stuff that I should not!

We can dream... but realistically, it will not be easy.

You can bet that the MIW will do a lot of gerrymandering before the elections to protect Pinky's arse.

I found this at Tan Kin Lian's Blog which says it all :

"If you look at Goh Chok Tong's Marine Parade GRC map, it stretches from Braddell all the way to the east coast. And also the most funny shape.

And it has 6 MPs, just like LKY's GRC".

So, don't be surprise if you find Jurong West and Sembawang a part of Pinky's GRC, if it suits their purpose.

Whatever the PAPpies do, it will be Pinky's fate to see his percentage vote fall below 60 p/c in the next GE.

.. and maybe, just maybe, it will cause his Old Papa to have a fatal heart attack.

We can dream about it... can't we ??


http://tankinlian.blogspot.com/2009/11/gerrymandering-and-election.html

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

Isn't the die hard 33% opposition vote across the board ie., the five precincts in a GRC?

Not really. Some precincts have as low as 20 plus...well high twenty.

What surprises me is that in Cheng San where WP garnered 45% back in 1997, the percentage of votes garnered in 2006 is only 35%. It is actually a regression of 10%. Of course, there are a lot of factors behind it, including JBJ, Tang Lian Hong and the PAP opponents are different as well, instead of Lee Yoke Suan, we have PM Lee...etc.

But it does provide an insight to the behavior of Swing Voters who are primarily P65 voters. If we analyze further, the PM does have his impact with his ward Teck Ghee giving only 28% or so to WP's team. i.e. PAP gets the highest in Teck Ghee. Although we tend to make fun of PM Lee on the internet and even PAP may feel awkward with a PM GRC getting slightly less than average instead of top of the rest, but the truth is, with the baggage of Cheng San, Yishun South etc added on to his GRC, he did reasonably well in swinging some of the votes from these precincts. i.e. as much as 10% from Cheng San.

When we analyze such results, we must be more objective to see the clearer picture. PM Lee is not as weak as we think.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[FuckSamLeong]

what GMS means is your extra 10% that support woman candidate in yr example may already be part of the 33% traditional opp supporters (or part thereof). So it's not 33+10 so straightforward.

the other difficulty also lies in the PAP-PA-RC-CCC-CC-CDC-Town Council machinery in some GRC better than others in terms of ground intel & recce..

So in another words, all opposition big guns combined still would not matter? Then why are there talks about GRC takeovers by Opp parties on their own tuft respectively? Pipe dream?

 

[FuckSamLeong]

Not really. Some precincts have as low as 20 plus...well high twenty.

What surprises me is that in Cheng San where WP garnered 45% back in 1997, the percentage of votes garnered in 2006 is only 35%. It is actually a regression of 10%. Of course, there are a lot of factors behind it, including JBJ, Tang Lian Hong and the PAP opponents are different as well, instead of Lee Yoke Suan, we have PM Lee...etc.

But it does provide an insight to the behavior of Swing Voters who are primarily P65 voters. If we analyze further, the PM does have his impact with his ward Teck Ghee giving only 28% or so to WP's team. i.e. PAP gets the highest in Teck Ghee. Although we tend to make fun of PM Lee on the internet and even PAP may feel awkward with a PM GRC getting slightly less than average instead of top of the rest, but the truth is, with the baggage of Cheng San, Yishun South etc added on to his GRC, he did reasonably well in swinging some of the votes from these precincts. i.e. as much as 10% from Cheng San.

When we analyze such results, we must be more objective to see the clearer picture. PM Lee is not as weak as we think.

Goh Meng Seng

When we talk about about GE 2006 AMK GRC, it was an Opposition Wayang Team that surprised itself by it's unpredicted performance result. No?

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

So in another words, all opposition big guns combined still would not matter? Then why are there talks about GRC takeovers by Opp parties on their own tuft respectively? Pipe dream?

As I have illustrated in my earlier post, it depends on who are your opponents. If he is a PM or some high profile, well like ministers like Khaw BW, then you may have the Swing Voters voting against you. But if the minister is a minister with low popularity and the opposition candidates are reasonably good, then there is a real chance of winning.

For example, if in GE 2006 Aljunied GRC's PAP team consists of Yacoob or some other ministers with lower popularity instead of George Yeo, WP team might have won with 51%. George Yeo has a likable personality when it comes to political engagement. The only set back is that he was traveling too frequently as a foreign minister.

Thus for this round, you know why I have chosen Mah BT?

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

When we talk about about GE 2006 AMK GRC, it was an Opposition Wayang Team that surprised itself by it's unpredicted performance result. No?

Frankly speaking, my calculation was pretty close, 32% prior to the 2006 elections. It is not that "unpredicted" or "unexpected", so to speak. But of course, people tend to have a lower expectation especially so when PAP's side start to mock at our young team that they will win hands down and the PM will get at least 80%. So if you started with a low expectation but get a result higher than what you expected, naturally you will be happy.

And please, it is not a Wayang Team at all. Their contest is very strategic. Call it a block force or suicide force..whichever you like. But the truth is, the contest increase the number of voters involved in WP's contests.

What it translated into was the huge amount turnout for WP's rallies. You see, WP has only one rally each night. Assume that in general, only 3% of voters in contested wards will attend the rallies, without the AMK GRC team, we will have about 5000 people less in attending our rallies.

WP is able to attract so many people to its rallies basically due to a few reasons and one of the biggest reason is the number of wards they have contested altogether. It is just plain numbers game.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[FuckSamLeong]

As I have illustrated in my earlier post, it depends on who are your opponents. If he is a PM or some high profile, well like ministers like Khaw BW, then you may have the Swing Voters voting against you. But if the minister is a minister with low popularity and the opposition candidates are reasonably good, then there is a real chance of winning.

For example, if in GE 2006 Aljunied GRC's PAP team consists of Yacoob or some other ministers with lower popularity instead of George Yeo, WP team might have won with 51%. George Yeo has a likable personality when it comes to political engagement. The only set back is that he was traveling too frequently as a foreign minister.

Thus for this round, you know why I have chosen Mah BT?

Goh Meng Seng

I can't say I have the feel of the ground here in Tampines. I live there. If NSP is really serious, I would like to see them being more proactive than just selling newsletters once in a blue moon. A show of giving a more detail look see of how bad the town council is doing it's job is worth many times more that whatever is printed in the newsletter. People pay the $2 as a gesture of support and donation to a cause. I don't see people reading it. I don't!

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

I can't say I have the feel of the ground here in Tampines. I live there. If NSP is really serious, I would like to see them being more proactive than just selling newsletters once in a blue moon. A show of giving a more detail look see of how bad the town council is doing it's job is worth many times more that whatever is printed in the newsletter. People pay the $2 as a gesture of support and donation to a cause. I don't see people reading it. I don't!

Your $2 means a lot to us. First as an indication of support. Second as a funding needs to let us carry on our work and fight. Thank you.

Of course, we would like you to read our messages as well and even better still, spread our messages to your neighbors. That would be more effective.

While many people focus on town council, I tend to focus on the Minister. This is just not a matter of preference but rather a strategy that is drawn out after much reflections and thoughts.

Just as I have shown you, Cheng San's vote swingers swung to PM Lee's side. Why? I like in Cheng San precincts and I believe that the town council is not doing an exceptionally good job at all. But still, people still give face to the PM in comparison to WP's young team.

The GRC battle must be fought very differently. People, sad to say, would use double standards to judge. If they are considering whether to vote PAP or not, they will look at the Minister in the GRC...on the national level. When they put consideration on opposition, they will look at whether they could bring bad things to their town via the town council....a propaganda entrenched by PAP. (rubbish piling up...etc)

PAP tries to play it up in last elections with PM Lee himself using a person to person comparison. If you take James Gomez and compare him to Cynthia Phua, who would you vote? If it is not for the Gomez saga, most people will definitely vote James. But most of the time, voters take the best PAP candidate....the minister.. to make comparison with the weakest link in opposition team.

Thus after much consideration, I think the only way is to put a dent into the ministers' credibility by pointing out the whatever bad things that come out of their ministry.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[commoner]

I believe in Freak Results,,,,

I believe we may wake up one day, either the opposition is in power or the armoured vehicles on the streets....

I don't believe LKY or Pinkie Ass is untouchable.....

Give face to LKY or LHL? Please,,,,,, you think the Potong Pasir residents give face to Wooden Goh when he visited PP in 2006?

Opposition can win a few GRCs,,,,, and SMCs as Pinkie Ass is adjusting for smaller GRCs and more SMCs,,,, in the Jan/Feb parliament sitting

 

[FuckSamLeong]

A large part of unhappiness over affordability of HDB flats is being negated by the near full completion of lift upgrading projects. I am sure you know that! And I can tell you with near certainty Mah has a guy running his precinct's office surfing forums.