SEPT 19 — Aftershocks of the dismal showing by Malaysia’s ruling coalition in last year’s general election continue to reverberate through the political landscape. Slowly but steadily, structural reforms are becoming undeniable.
It is now not so much about whether the Barisan Nasional (BN) will reform itself or not, but whether it can stay whole during its painful transformation.
What phoenix — or phoenixes — will rise when the dust settles is the key question? What will never rise again?
The former president of the dominant Umno, former premier Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, resigned in March; just as Datuk Seri Ong Ka Ting, then president of the second most important party, the MCA, had done in October last year. This eased internal tensions for a while in those parties.
The presidents of other major BN members, such as Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon of Gerakan and Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu of the MIC have chosen to stay put. This has minimised chances for the parties to regain ground support.
The fact that Koh was made a senator and then minister in the Prime Minister’s Department by the new Umno president, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, and not Samy Vellu, has added to the bad blood between the component parties.
Whatever the case though, both Gerakan and MIC have not been able to regain strength from any direction.
The same holds true for the MCA as well.
Recent developments show that its internal struggles are far from over. The fact that neither the MCA nor any of BN’s parties on the peninsula has been able to achieve any noteworthy increase in popularity over the last 18 months is putting pressure on both old and new party members alike.
Even where the have-beens did leave, not enough space has been created for the many up-and-coming hopefuls to unite in optimism. More aspirants to power need to be sacrificed.
And so, each party has its internal problems. However, the BN’s big dilemma is much bigger than the sum of the internal struggles of its parts. With all the parties highly unlikely to show success in winning the hearts and minds of young and new voters in time for the next general election, how is the coalition to distribute seats amongst its members to everyone’s satisfaction?
Indeed, how will smaller parties be able to say “No” when Umno demands a huge increase in seat allocation? And if they say “Yes”, will that not make them even more unattractive to voters?
Just as importantly, can BN, whose modus operandi so far had been to absorb parties as these became relevant, give its member parties the sack when these become irrelevant?
With its allies faltering badly, Umno, which, despite serious losses, has the most stable core of supporters within BN, will be burdened further as time drags by. It can carry so many lame ducks only so far. After that, hard decisions will have to be made and the weak and irrelevant will have to go.
The Alliance/BN is the path to power for Umno. It cannot hope to go it alone. At present, the party commands only a third of the seats in Parliament. Its reliance on the Sabahans and Sarawakians is therefore crucial, and will continue to grow.
However, a federal government made up mainly of Sabah/Sarawak and Umno leaders from the peninsula south is not a stable or viable option.
Umno, or BN, must therefore win back non-Malay votes in Peninsular Malaysia if it is to regain any semblance of its former glory. One possible way as far as one can see at the moment — and this is far-fetched already — is for Umno to turn itself effectively into BN, either by absorbing its allies into its organisational body in some way, or by allowing all ethnic groups to join without restrictions.
Through such a move, it would have a chance of regaining the initiative from the oppositional coalition.
Since that is unlikely to happen any time soon, the struggles within BN cannot but drag on for a while, lengthened because they were postponed. — Today
The writer is a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. His latest book is “Arrested Reform: The Undoing of Abdullah Badawi” (Refsa).
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/opinion/ooikeebeng/38109?task=view#pc_174875
It is now not so much about whether the Barisan Nasional (BN) will reform itself or not, but whether it can stay whole during its painful transformation.
What phoenix — or phoenixes — will rise when the dust settles is the key question? What will never rise again?
The former president of the dominant Umno, former premier Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, resigned in March; just as Datuk Seri Ong Ka Ting, then president of the second most important party, the MCA, had done in October last year. This eased internal tensions for a while in those parties.
The presidents of other major BN members, such as Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon of Gerakan and Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu of the MIC have chosen to stay put. This has minimised chances for the parties to regain ground support.
The fact that Koh was made a senator and then minister in the Prime Minister’s Department by the new Umno president, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, and not Samy Vellu, has added to the bad blood between the component parties.
Whatever the case though, both Gerakan and MIC have not been able to regain strength from any direction.
The same holds true for the MCA as well.
Recent developments show that its internal struggles are far from over. The fact that neither the MCA nor any of BN’s parties on the peninsula has been able to achieve any noteworthy increase in popularity over the last 18 months is putting pressure on both old and new party members alike.
Even where the have-beens did leave, not enough space has been created for the many up-and-coming hopefuls to unite in optimism. More aspirants to power need to be sacrificed.
And so, each party has its internal problems. However, the BN’s big dilemma is much bigger than the sum of the internal struggles of its parts. With all the parties highly unlikely to show success in winning the hearts and minds of young and new voters in time for the next general election, how is the coalition to distribute seats amongst its members to everyone’s satisfaction?
Indeed, how will smaller parties be able to say “No” when Umno demands a huge increase in seat allocation? And if they say “Yes”, will that not make them even more unattractive to voters?
Just as importantly, can BN, whose modus operandi so far had been to absorb parties as these became relevant, give its member parties the sack when these become irrelevant?
With its allies faltering badly, Umno, which, despite serious losses, has the most stable core of supporters within BN, will be burdened further as time drags by. It can carry so many lame ducks only so far. After that, hard decisions will have to be made and the weak and irrelevant will have to go.
The Alliance/BN is the path to power for Umno. It cannot hope to go it alone. At present, the party commands only a third of the seats in Parliament. Its reliance on the Sabahans and Sarawakians is therefore crucial, and will continue to grow.
However, a federal government made up mainly of Sabah/Sarawak and Umno leaders from the peninsula south is not a stable or viable option.
Umno, or BN, must therefore win back non-Malay votes in Peninsular Malaysia if it is to regain any semblance of its former glory. One possible way as far as one can see at the moment — and this is far-fetched already — is for Umno to turn itself effectively into BN, either by absorbing its allies into its organisational body in some way, or by allowing all ethnic groups to join without restrictions.
Through such a move, it would have a chance of regaining the initiative from the oppositional coalition.
Since that is unlikely to happen any time soon, the struggles within BN cannot but drag on for a while, lengthened because they were postponed. — Today
The writer is a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. His latest book is “Arrested Reform: The Undoing of Abdullah Badawi” (Refsa).
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/opinion/ooikeebeng/38109?task=view#pc_174875
:p
