<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published November 22, 2008
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Export figures likely to contract further
By TEH SHI NING
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THE full-year forecast for non-oil domestic export (NODX) growth has been cut by three percentage points, IE Singapore said yesterday.
<TABLE class=picBoxL cellSpacing=2 width=100 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=caption><TD>DISPARITY
There is a protracted difference between real export and import growth here and the pharmaceutical distortion is depressing exports heavily </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>NODX this year is now expected to contract 5 to 7 per cent, a bigger decline than the previously forecast 2 to 4 per cent. The downward revision is not unexpected, after a sharp dive in October exports announced this week.
Total trade next year is expected to shrink 6 to 8 per cent, largely because of lower oil prices and slower global demand. IE Singapore expects the 2009 change in NODX to range from a one per cent contraction to a one per cent expansion.
The effects of a slowdown in other Asian economies are starting to show in Singapore's exports, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in its third-quarter economic survey, released yesterday.
Japan, Taiwan and Korea are seeing weaker exports as developed countries buy less, debunking decoupling theories. And growth in Indonesia and Malaysia is set to slow as commodity prices fall.
MTI economist Thia Jang Ping said in a report that Greater China (China, Taiwan and Hong Kong), the Asean-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines), Japan and Korea accounted for 53 per cent of Singapore's NODX last year. In the first half of this year, NODX to these four groupings registered positive growth, but since mid-year, NODX to all four has contracted.
In addition, although Singapore's total trade has risen, the report said overall exports, which include oil exports and re-exports, registered a marked decline in second-half 2008.
'While the decline in NODX will affect manufacturing activities more, the effect of weaker re-exports will be felt in various trade related segments such as wholesale, transport and storage,' Dr Thia said.
HSBC economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde said: 'Singapore has rarely, if ever, seen this kind of a protracted difference between real export and import growth. Apart from the ongoing pharmaceutical distortion, which is still depressing exports heavily, it could indicate a lack of competitiveness in the economy, particularly in the electronics space.'
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</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Export figures likely to contract further
By TEH SHI NING
<TABLE class=storyLinks cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=1 width=136 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20>
</TD><TD>Email this article</TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20>
</TD><TD>Print article </TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20>
</TD><TD>Feedback</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>THE full-year forecast for non-oil domestic export (NODX) growth has been cut by three percentage points, IE Singapore said yesterday.
<TABLE class=picBoxL cellSpacing=2 width=100 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=caption><TD>DISPARITYThere is a protracted difference between real export and import growth here and the pharmaceutical distortion is depressing exports heavily </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>NODX this year is now expected to contract 5 to 7 per cent, a bigger decline than the previously forecast 2 to 4 per cent. The downward revision is not unexpected, after a sharp dive in October exports announced this week.
Total trade next year is expected to shrink 6 to 8 per cent, largely because of lower oil prices and slower global demand. IE Singapore expects the 2009 change in NODX to range from a one per cent contraction to a one per cent expansion.
The effects of a slowdown in other Asian economies are starting to show in Singapore's exports, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in its third-quarter economic survey, released yesterday.
Japan, Taiwan and Korea are seeing weaker exports as developed countries buy less, debunking decoupling theories. And growth in Indonesia and Malaysia is set to slow as commodity prices fall.
MTI economist Thia Jang Ping said in a report that Greater China (China, Taiwan and Hong Kong), the Asean-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines), Japan and Korea accounted for 53 per cent of Singapore's NODX last year. In the first half of this year, NODX to these four groupings registered positive growth, but since mid-year, NODX to all four has contracted.
In addition, although Singapore's total trade has risen, the report said overall exports, which include oil exports and re-exports, registered a marked decline in second-half 2008.
'While the decline in NODX will affect manufacturing activities more, the effect of weaker re-exports will be felt in various trade related segments such as wholesale, transport and storage,' Dr Thia said.
HSBC economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde said: 'Singapore has rarely, if ever, seen this kind of a protracted difference between real export and import growth. Apart from the ongoing pharmaceutical distortion, which is still depressing exports heavily, it could indicate a lack of competitiveness in the economy, particularly in the electronics space.'
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