Beijing rebukes brimming pessimism of “garbage time of history”

[whistling]

Beijing rebukes brimming pessimism of “garbage time of history”​

To die, to sleep; to sleep, perchance to dream.​

YUXUAN JIA
JUL 13, 2024

Pessimism is haunting China's social media. Last Wednesday, July 3, a rumor spread about a 30-year-old investment banker who allegedly threw herself from an office building, committing suicide. Although China International Capital Corp. Ltd. (CICC), where the banker worked, denied that the cause of death was suicide, the power of the story had already taken hold. The circulating story suggests that her suicide resulted from multiple factors, including a pay cut, mortgage pressure, and compounded mental problems. The suicide of someone presumed to be guaranteed prosperity upon employment at CICC yet yielding to the crushing tides of times sounds to many like a modern-day Oedipus.

Rising in the last week is the notion of the "garbage time of history," allegedly sourced from Ludwig von Mises, the Austrian School economist and historian, which hasn’t been substantiated. This term describes a period of prolonged decline, characterized by stagnation and inevitable failure, akin to the final, inconsequential minutes of a sports game when the outcome is already determined. It reflects a time when a society or state appears to be in irreversible decline, with its political, economic, and cultural systems failing to adapt or progress. Despite individual or cultural efforts, the overarching trajectory remains downward, governed by entrenched power structures and economic mismanagement. The Soviet Union's final years, from the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 to its dissolution in 1991, are cited as a modern example.

For individuals, the "garbage time of history" means a sense of disillusionment and powerlessness as larger historical forces render personal efforts seemingly inconsequential, leading to recurring failures in their aspirations for a prosperous life.

Over the past week, many rebuttals to the "garbage time" theory, from influencers and mainstream media, have emerged. Three rebuttals, presented below, promptly identify the "garbage time" idea as a creation out of thin air and a "narrative trap" that amplifies common obstacles and encourages inaction and self-abandonment. The authors appear to be highly alert to this rising trend, believing it to be even more dangerous than the "lying flat" mentality.

—Yuxuan Jia

Please note that due to limited space, the following translations are just excerpts of the original articles. All the emphasis is the authors'.

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明金维 Ming Jinwei is a former journalist at Xinhua News Agency who then worked for a range of Chinese tech companies. He is the founder of the popular blog 明叔杂谈 Uncle Ming's Remarks on multiple Chinese social media platforms.

On July 6, Ming published a rebuttal of the viral "garbage time" concept on his WeChat blog.

所谓历史的垃圾时间，是无知“文青”对当下中国的荒唐意淫​

Ming Jinwei: The so-called "garbage time of history" is the absurd fantasy of ignorant "literary youth" about present-day China​

In China, the term "literary youth" (文青) once held a positive connotation, similar to "public intellectuals" (公知). However, in the internet age, these terms have evolved into labels used by netizens to mock those who challenge mainstream views. The "literary youth" are no longer merely art-loving individuals but are seen as a group deeply influenced by bourgeois liberal ideologies. They idolize bourgeois "universal values" and fantasize about transplanting these values and even political systems to China. When ignored and mocked in real life, they often retreat into small circles, indulging in "self-pity" and "self-admiration," believing themselves pure while deeming others corrupt.
In reality, bourgeois "universal values" serve the bourgeoisie. Take the United States, for example: its "democracy" doesn't mean rule by all people but by the bourgeoisie. This is evident as most American voters do not favor Biden or Trump running again, yet they will choose between the two "old men" in November 2024. In these "universal values," freedom is the freedom of all people but of the bourgeoisie to act as they please. Internally, they control the state machinery, exploit and deceive the common people; externally, they are filled with lies and adhere to the principle of "might makes right," arbitrarily criticizing other countries and even waging wars. This is the freedom in bourgeois "universal values." The poor "literary youth" believe that the freedom in these values means they can do whatever they want.
Understanding this context clarifies the term "garbage time of history" used by these "literary youth." They believe China is deteriorating and, unable to effect change as mere individuals, choose to "lie flat" and wait. They see today's China as doomed and view this period as "garbage time of history" before the country's total failure and the arrival of their imagined "new world." This seemingly harmless phrase conceals numerous political fantasies. In essence, they reject socialism with Chinese characteristics, exaggerate China's economic challenges, and highlight individual tragedies as evidence of the country's failure. They cling to the illusion for a "peaceful evolution" or "color revolution" to bring about their dream life of "freedom, democracy, and prosperity."
As someone well-versed in history and Western economic theories, I find their views astonishingly naive. Their judgments about China and the world are so detached from reality that their visions for the future aim to overthrow socialism with Chinese characteristics in favor of neoliberal capitalism, which has failed even in the West. They resemble Soviet "liberal" intellectuals misled by the U.S. before the Soviet Union's collapse. Figures like Solzhenitsyn, who used literature and thought to topple the Soviet Union and was once celebrated in the West, saw post-collapse Russia as a tragic era of corruption, oligarchic domination, and widespread suffering, contrary to the "free and prosperous nation" promised by the U.S.
China must be cautious not to produce "miniature" Solzhenitsyns, who, under American influence, view themselves as China's conscience but engage in deplorable actions that betray the nation and the people's interests.
What's even more absurd is that this group of idle petty bourgeois intellectuals, mainly some social media authors who simply don't read, have made a fundamental error. They claim that the "garbage time of history" was proposed by the neoliberal economic "master" and Friedrich Hayek's teacher, Mises. A while ago, I specifically read Mises' works to critique neoliberalism and also read Hayek's The Road to Serfdom, which many "literary youth" consider a classic. I do not recall Mises ever proposing this concept. After repeatedly searching online and finally using ChatGPT, I got this answer:
**The conversation reads:
User: Did Mises ever mention the term "garbage time of history"?
ChatGPT: Regarding the term "garbage time of history," the correct source is the French historian Fernand Braudel, not Mises. Mises (Jacob Burckhardt) was another renowned historian whose work had a profound influence on art history and Renaissance cultural history. However, he did not use the term "garbage time of history."** [The errors in the original text have been maintained.]
Mises never proposed the concept of the "garbage time of history." The term was actually coined by French historian Fernand Braudel. It turns out that these "literary youth," who pretend to have a "compassionate" outlook, got even this basic fact wrong.
Since they mentioned Mises, let me talk about him. Mises was one of the representative figures of the Austrian School of Economics and also a representative of Western neoliberal economics. Anyone who has genuinely read the literature knows that since modern times, the West has been filled with various schools of thought, but most of them are like "blind men feeling an elephant," creating theories and proposing concepts that seem very fashionable but lack timeless classicism. A representative figure among them is Francis Fukuyama, who proposed the "end of history" theory. What kind of person was Mises? He was a Western economist who spent his entire life stubbornly defending capitalism and never quite achieving much recognition.
…
What is the true "garbage time of history"? Today, I will clarify this to prevent those ignorant "literary youth" from continuing to mislead Chinese netizens. Fernand Braudel was a historian who paid special attention to macro trends and was once considered one of the greatest historians of recent decades. In his renowned work The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II, he proposed three concepts of time:

1. Long duration (longue durée): This refers to the time of geographical environments, which occur very slowly…
2. Medium duration (conjunctures): This refers to the time of social, economic, political, and cultural changes…
3. Short duration (événements): This refers to the time of events, political activities, and individual actions. This is a short-term time frame. Although many things may seem important at the time and place they occur, in the long run, they are not that significant. This is perhaps the closest concept to what the "literary youth" refer to as "garbage time of history."

By this point, it is evident that the so-called "garbage time of history" is not a political concept, nor is it a concept with clear ideological overtones. Fernand Braudel was merely describing objectively that events occurring at a specific time and place do not have a significant impact in the long term. However, in the mouths of the "literary youth," Braudel's concept has been "transplanted" into the theory of the Western bourgeois neoliberal economist Mises. The "literary youth" then use this to negate the current development of socialism with Chinese characteristics and to express their foolish delusions of wanting China to "change the sky" and establish a capitalist system. I have always thought that in today's China, "literary youth" and "liberals" in the general sense are almost equivalent…

The second rebuttal is by 王文 Wang Wen, Executive Dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China (RDCY). On July 8, Wang published an article titled "'Garbage Time of History' is a Fraudulent Academic Concept" on 中宏网 Zhonghongwang, a website under the National Development and Reform Commission. Another article by Wang, titled "Is It Really the 'Garbage Time of History' Now?", was published on Guancha on the same day, containing largely the same content.

By the way, a previous post by The East is Read also featured Ming and Wang, focusing on their differences in opinion on China-U.S. relations.

“历史的垃圾时间”系学术概念造假​

Wang Wen: "Garbage Time of History" is a Fraudulent Academic Concept​

Talking about the "garbage time of history" might be acceptable if it is merely to vent or joke around. However, inciting the notion of the "garbage time of history" is indeed deeply malicious!
The fleeting life waits for no man. We cannot allow more people to lie flat in helplessness, abandon themselves to despair, and muddle through life aimlessly. Instead, we should inspire action, resilience, and a commitment to overcoming challenges, ensuring that each individual contributes meaningfully to the progress and prosperity of society.
This fraudulent term, under close examination, is even more dangerous than the recent "lying flat" theory. It completely negates the current development of China, attempts to create a public expectation of the country's inevitable failure, and induces a mindset of non-cooperation, non-effort, and inaction among the populace.
In fact, compared to the insignificance of individuals in the "long duration" of history, truly responsible intellectuals would never encourage people to fall into a "narrative trap" that convinces them a certain moment is insignificant in the course of history. Instead, they would motivate everyone to believe that this is a "critical historical moment" worth overcoming, surpassing, and rising from amidst the noise and illusions.
As detailed in my book Profound Changes Unseen in Centuries, the "critical historical moment" refers to a period of unprecedented challenges and breakthroughs in human systems, technology, knowledge, and frameworks over the past few hundred years.
From the perspective of the leadership of civilizations, Western civilization, which originated in the Age of Exploration, is experiencing an unprecedented decline in nearly 500 years. In terms of technological innovation, the smart technology revolution is at an unparalleled stage of "liberating the human brain" following the mechanical, electrical, and information revolutions of the past 400 years that liberated human limbs and senses. Politically, the so-called "liberal democracy" stemming from the British Glorious Revolution, the French Revolution, and the American War of Independence is facing its greatest skepticism in nearly 300 years. Knowledge-wise, the classification of social sciences originating in the early 19th century is encountering a trend of reconstruction unseen in about 200 years. In terms of power structure, major power competition is facing an intercontinental shift unprecedented in over 100 years.
The transformation of the international power structure is accompanied by a series of structural subversions and epochal surpassings between the East and the West in commodities, currency, brands, information, knowledge, systems, and even race and ideology.
In recent years, I have often shared my personal experiences. Over the past decade or so, I have conducted research visits to about a hundred countries. Increasingly, more foreigners are willing to pay for or provide platforms for the sharing of Chinese knowledge, whereas years ago, hardly any foreigners would fund lectures by Chinese scholars. More and more Chinese-brand cars are running on the streets of overseas cities, whereas a few years ago, Chinese people were still complaining that Chinese car manufacturers couldn't even make a proper engine. More and more foreigners greet each other with "Ni Hao," whereas for many years, Chinese people were often mistaken for Japanese, Koreans, or Singaporeans.
Amidst "profound changes unseen in a century," we are on the path to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Such a great "critical historical moment" cannot be tarnished and distorted with the term "garbage!"
However, it must be acknowledged that the frequent citation, evaluation, and circulation of the term "garbage time of history" in recent months does reflect the emotional resonance of many people and the social psychology during the economic downturn. This precisely highlights an extremely important and urgent task that needs to be implemented and reinforced: "China's reform should never have garbage time!"
Effective reform and policy implementation should focus on tangible results, allowing ordinary people to genuinely perceive a real sense of gain. By ensuring that more people have an increasingly amount of leisure time and that they have a reliable sense of security regarding their wealth, the toxic effects of fraudulent concepts will naturally phase out.
On the other hand, if individuals truly seek inspiration from Mises' theories, they should focus on making effective adjustments and recoveries from the economic downturn. As a leading figure of the Austrian School, Mises dedicated his life to studying the mechanisms of market economy operations and the impact variables of government intervention. In his view, economic downturns are not meaningless periods of inactivity; rather, they are opportunities for significant self-adjustment. Therefore, innovation accumulation, quality prioritization, long-term considerations, managed expectations, and reduced leverage are key insights that can be derived from Mises' theories, providing crucial guidance for overcoming "critical historical moments."
These principles are exactly what all Chinese people, including government officials, business leaders, investors, and technology workers, need to embrace and persist in during this "critical historical moment." They must continue to strive, forge ahead, and never give up on their responsibilities in this era.

The third rebuke, published on July 11 on Beijing Daily,

“历史的垃圾时间”？真耶假耶？​

Beijing Daily: "Garbage Time of History"? True or False?​

Looking back carefully, over the years, from "economic recession" to "Peak China," from "China's coming collapse" to "overcapacity," there have been far too many similarly gloomy predictions and judgments. There's always a new phrase to encapsulate old ideas, but the one constant is that they are all ultimately proven wrong by the facts.
The newly popularized concept of "garbage time of history" uses a fuzzy academic notion to trap ordinary people in a grand narrative. Combined with the sensational output commonly seen on the internet, this creates a dubious stirring effect.
But according to this "garbage time" logic, what period or life would be considered not "garbage"? A nation's rise with a smooth and rapid ascent, no twists and turns, no suppression or blockades; life where one is born in Rome ["All roads lead to Rome, yet some are born in Rome" is a popular phrase on the Chinese internet,], the starting line is the finish line, work is highly paid with little effort, and there is no competition or struggle; no relentless efforts, no hardships, no risk of failure, no uncertainties…When has such good fortune ever existed in history? When has China or its people ever had such a fate? Amplifying individual cases, whether true or false, to generalize them as historical laws, and then using that to define all individuals, is itself a logical fallacy of drawing the target after shooting the arrow.
China has maintained high-speed economic growth for several decades, creating two rare miracles: rapid economic development and long-term social stability. Looking back on this development journey, it is indeed filled with highlights, but for every page of this journey, for every person involved, none of it was smooth sailing or easily attainable, and there was never a moment without risk or with a guaranteed outcome.
The construction of a nation was arduous, and reforms were extremely challenging. There were real threats of being expelled from the international community and immense pressure from being encircled and blocked. These struggles are not distant from us. Moreover, the problems that arise from development are no less than those that arise from lack of development. The Asian financial crisis, the international financial crisis, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and other external environmental changes have been unpredictable, while internal reform pressures have continued to increase. Each stage has its own difficulties, each period has its own challenges, and everyone involved in these stories did not have a an omniscient POV but strived to navigate through the torrent of time with all their might.
It was only seventy-five years ago that the Chinese people ended a century of humiliation and declared, "the Chinese people have stood up. (Mao Zedong, 1949)" It wasn't until 1993 that grain and oil ration coupons were officially abolished. Only at the beginning of this century did the supply of goods gradually become abundant, allowing the Chinese people to enjoy a colorful material life.
Today, the Chinese people discuss "collecting soil from the moon" and "raising fish in space," embark on spontaneous high-speed rail trips, and enjoy the seamless convenience of having "the world at their fingertips" through a simple QR scan. This is something our grandparents and parents could not even dream of. For those silent, diligent builders and strivers, they faced a situation where they couldn't even see the taillights of their competitors at the starting line, worked with abacuses while competing against computers, endured setbacks of continuous "resets" due to blockades, and dared to venture into unknown waters. Standing in that moment, no one knew how long it would take for the dawn of victory to arrive or where they were in the historical process. But did anyone stop? If they had all laid flat and given up, saying "it's impossible, we have no choice," would there be the China we have today?

James Liang calls on Beijing to give money to families to boost consumption​

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James Jianzhang Liang is one of the Co-founders and the Chairman of Trip.com Group, one of the leading global travel service providers. He is also a Chinese population economist and a Professor of Economics at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management.

 

[syed putra]

China is not imploding. It's still a mega export hub. Factories are not closing. They are relocating to cheaper areas within China.
Banks are not shutting. They are bought over by larger banks.

 

[worcer]

If china govt dun let it implode, its not the economy will fail... its the mindset of china people will fail because too prolong period of economy recession causing a norm.

There is a saying..." anything that goes up must come down"

If u dun let it come down, more social problems will caused the economy to crash even badly...

 

[laksaboy]

Keep barking Chicoms, the inevitable will come.

Best if mainland China splinters into smaller states like Yugoslavia. Those ethnic minority 'autonomous' regions never belonged to you anyway.