Angmoh Bank Barclays said China may have to stagnant for decades

[GUDANGARAM]

Barclays warns of Japan-style recession risk for China​

Investing.com
Fri, Aug 16, 2024 at 5:20 PM GMT+83 min read

Investing.com -- China's economy is currently caught in a vicious cycle characterized by a slowdown in investment, production, and consumption, compounded by a deteriorating labor market and declining property values.
As per analysts at Barclays, these factors have heightened concerns about a potential Japan-style balance-sheet recession, posing significant downside risks to China's GDP forecasts.

Despite expectations of 4.8% growth, the outlook remains bleak unless more robust and concerted policy measures are implemented to stabilize the situation.
Economic slowdown and key factors
The Chinese economy has been struggling with several interlinked challenges that are exacerbating the slowdown. The July 2024 activity data confirm a weak start to Q3, with industrial production growth decelerating, property investment contracting further, and retail sales remaining subdued.
“Despite a very low year-earlier base, retail sales growth remained firmly below 3% for the second straight month,” the analysts said.The industrial production growth rate also moderated to 5.1% year-on-year in July, slightly below expectations.
On the investment front, Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) growth has been disappointing, falling to a nine-month low of 2% year-on-year in July. This slowdown has been driven by worsened property investment and softer manufacturing investment, only partially offset by a slight pickup in infrastructure investment.
The July data also reported a continued decline in private credit demand and a negative GDP deflator for the fifth consecutive quarter, underscoring the deflationary pressures in the economy.
Real estate sector in crisis
The real estate sector, a critical pillar of China's economy, remains mired in a prolonged contraction. Despite policy measures introduced in May 2024 to stabilize the market, housing activity continues to decline.
Property investment slumped by 10.8% year-on-year in July, with new property sales falling by 15.4% year-on-year, deepening the contraction observed in the previous months.
Additionally, the market for new property sales in 30 major cities fell further in August, indicating that the housing market correction is far from over.
Labor market and consumption weakness
China's labor market has also shown signs of deterioration, with the urban unemployment rate rising to 5.2% in July. This worsening labor market is contributing to weak consumer confidence, as reflected in the tepid retail sales growth.
Despite government efforts to stimulate auto purchases, auto sales have contracted for the fifth straight month. Moreover, the ongoing downturn in the housing market has led to a contraction in property-related retail sales, further weighing on overall consumption.
Story Continues
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[k1976]

The price to be world lumber...nippon pay the price with 3 lost decades since 1990

 

[k1976]

 

[k1976]

We are entering into a Multi Polar world in the upcomig supercycle

 

[k1976]

 

[laksaboy]

Stagnant not good enough, must be totally disintegrated. Even better if revert back to Stone Age, the entire China mainland turns into an uninhabited desert.

 

[GUDANGARAM]

Stagnant not good enough, must be totally disintegrated. Even better if revert back to Stone Age, the entire China mainland turns into an uninhabited desert.

Our CPF fund is being used to invest in Suzhou
China say: 打水漂了

 

[k1976]

​

US employment falls by 818,000 in latest government revision​

Josh Schafer
·Reporter
Updated Wed, Aug 21, 2024, 11:12 PM GMT+83 min read

The US economy employed 818,000 fewer people than originally reported as of March 2024, showing the labor market may have been cooling long before initially thought.
The revisions are a yearly practice from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; final revised numbers are expected to be released early next year.
The report, released Wednesday morning, showed the largest downward revisions to the professional and business services industry, where employment was revised down by 358,000 during the period. Leisure & hospitality saw the second-largest downward revision of 150,000.

The report moves down the monthly job additions seen in the US economy over the time period to 174,000 from 242,000.
"Despite this big downward revision, that's still a very healthy growth rate in terms of the monthly jobs added to the economy," Omair Sharif, Inflation Insights president, told Yahoo Finance.

Furthermore, economists cautioned ahead of the release about how much investors should read into the print given its backward-looking nature.
"The realization that the economy created fewer jobs than initially estimated [does not] change the broader trends in GDP growth, stock market and wealth gains, and consumption," RBC Capital Markets US economist Michael Reid wrote in a note to clients on Aug. 16.
This release comes at an important time for labor market data, as recent signs of slowing have prompted economists to argue the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance is too restrictive.
A weak July jobs report helped tilt the focus toward the slowing labor market. The report showed the second-weakest monthly job additions since 2020 and the highest unemployment rate, 4.3%, in nearly three years.