AmDK warn of Tiongkok Lost Decade after Empreor issue decree on 100-year period of unprecedented change..... Ah Tiu, u ok mah?

[k1976]

Dalio Says China Must Fix Debt Problems or Face ‘Lost Decade’​

• Billionaire recommends China deleverage, ease monetary policy
• References CCP slogan ‘great changes unseen in a century’

Ray Dalio
Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg
By Krystal Chia
March 28, 2024 at 1:40 PM GMT+8

Ray Dalio warned that China should cut its debt and ease monetary policy or face “a lost decade.”

The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates said in a nearly 5,000-word post on LinkedIn that he agrees with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s warning of a 100-year period of unprecedented change and recommends the country take steps to manage its debt problem.

Have a confidential tip for our reporters

 

[k1976]

The hedge fund titan was referring to the Chinese Communist Party’s political slogan of “great changes unseen in a century,” used to describe the future trajectory of international order.

While the phrase was first used by Chinese academics following the 2008 recession, it was adopted by the party in 2017 and since used in diplomatic contexts.

 

[k1976]

“When there is a lot of debt and big wealth gaps at the same time as there are great domestic and international power conflicts, and/or great disruptive changes in nature, and great changes in technology, there is an increased likelihood of a ‘100-year big storm,’” he wrote.

He added that China-US tensions are causing foreign investors to diversify or leave China for fear of being discriminated against. That’s causing China to face difficulties obtaining investments, and without a reconciliation of economic and cultural clashes, the chance of a war in the next 10 years is high.

Dalio has a long history of involvement with Chinese officials and has expressed admiration for some of Beijing’s economic policies, while also building up his business there. He’s warned about the risks of conflict between US and China for years.

 

[k1976]

To manage its debt problem, Dalio recommends that China engineer a deleveraging and an easing of monetary policy at the same time, but acknowledges that such a move would be difficult and politically dangerous as it would lead to big changes in wealth levels.

No one knows how far the pendulum will swing back toward the more Maoist/Marxist ways of doing things,” Dalio wrote. “The impediment is that communicating more directly is not the Chinese leadership’s traditional way of doing things, which, as China goes back toward the more traditional ways of doing things, is understandable.”

 

[k1976]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bu...itical-macro-outlook-climate-storm-2024-3?amp

5 major challenges that have China headed for a '100-year storm,' according to billionaire investor Ray Dalio​

Aruni Soni
Mar 28, 2024, 10:48 AM ET
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Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

• The billionaire investor Ray Dalio says five major trends have China headed for a "100-year storm."
• They include a debt problem, an internal wealth gap, and increasingly fraught relations with the US.
• "The circumstances and the mood in China have indisputably changed to become more threatening," he said.

 

[k1976]

There are major economic and geopolitical challenges brewing a "100-year storm" in China, says the billionaire investor Ray Dalio.

In a LinkedIn post on Wednesday, Dalio listed five major forces casting a shadow on Beijing, detailing headwinds he says have been building up over the past four decades.

"When there is a lot of debt and big wealth gaps at the same time as there are great domestic and international power conflicts and/or great disruptive changes in nature (like droughts, floods, and pandemics, which China is especially prone to) and great changes in technology, there is an increased likelihood of a '100-year big storm,'" Dalio wrote. "That is the current environment in China."

 

[k1976]

First, the debt problem. China has for the past few years been mired in a property crisis that has hamstrung its economy by sending real-estate prices, asset prices, and employment in a downward spiral. On top of that, the country has an aging population, which is weighing on the financial system, especially under the legacy of the one-child policy. Dalio said those trends were depressing economic activity, prices, and psychology.

 

[k1976]

Then there's a growing internal wealth gap that has spurred the government to push for more "common prosperity," Dalio said. He added that the shifting policy focus had been "fear-inducing," which has additionally soured the mood in China.

 

[k1976]

Next, there's the increasingly fraught relations with the US. The power conflict between the two countries has bled into investor sentiment, steering money away from China. Businesses have been caught in the crossfire too, trying to appease the US.

"In trade and capital flows, a cat-and-mouse game has developed that has led companies and people to move to neutral countries and to try to appear to be non-Chinese or not Chinese sympathizers, so much so that the Chinese are having problems getting other countries and companies to accept them being there and/or investing in them," Dalio wrote.

 

[k1976]

China is also dealing with a technological war with the US, Dalio wrote. Both countries are pouring money into technologies including AI and quantum computing, each trying to get the lead over the other, he said.

 

[k1976]

Finally, there are the risks of the climate crisis, including floods, droughts, and pandemics, all of which are likely to cost a lot, he said.

"The circumstances and the mood in China have indisputably changed to become more threatening," Dalio said.

 

[k1976]

Xi Jinping is caught in a bind: How do I undermine US power while also courting its investors?​

Tom Porter
Thu, March 28, 2024 at 9:49 p.m. GMT+84 min read

• 
  

Xi Jinping is caught in a bind: How do I undermine US power while also courting its investors?

• Xi Jinping on Wednesday was playing nice with US business leaders and academics on Wednesday.
• He's seeking to boost China's faltering economy.
• But Xi is also trying to dent US global power on several fronts.

China's President Xi Jinping presented an uncharacteristically affable image Wednesday, smiling broadly for US business leaders at a meeting in Beijing.
The Chinese leader sought to assure investors including Cristiano Amon of Qualcomm and Stephen Schwarzman of the Blackstone Group that the downturn in China's economy, its biggest contraction in 15 years, would be over soon.

 

[k1976]

China's economy, after decades of growth, is experiencing its most serious problems in decades. A property market crisis has caused spiraling unemployment, consumer spending is dropping, and foreign investors are fleeing.

Ali Wyne, an analyst with the International Crisis Group NGO, told Business Insider that China was straining to avoid a total collapse in relations with the US.

"Courting foreign investment is important for both objective and narrative purposes: China is trying to manage a challenging set of growth headwinds and signal that influential business leaders are still making a long-term bet on the country," he said.

 

[k1976]

As part of his bid to smooth ties with the US and secure investment last November, Xi made a number of concessions to President Joe Biden, offering to help tackle fentanyl trafficking and work together on limiting the use of AI in nuclear weapons.

Some analysts say Xi is trying to buy time, easing tensions with the US to boost the economy, but without fundamentally altering his global ambitions.

"It can bring some stability but not change the nature of a relationship that probably hasn't found bottom yet," said Robert Daly, director of the Wilson Center's Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, speaking to NPR in November.

 

[k1976]

Meanwhile...Paradise Island win big big de woh

 

[laksaboy]

I don't want lost decade. I want China to be smashed up into small bits and pieces like Yugoslavia.

Best is go back to stone age.

 

[k1976]

 

[syed putra]

Xi jinping iS a communist. He is strengthening state corporations and curtailing private businesses.