US Office CRE Mess Is Spread Far and Wide across Investors & Banks Globally. US Banks Eat only a Portion of the Losses
by Wolf Richter • Feb 5, 2024 • 93 Comments
Japanese, Canadian, and European banks started to confess. And for over a year, huge losses have hit investors, not banks.
What’s amazing about the mess of the office sector of commercial real estate (CRE) is just how far and wide these mega-losses – by some estimates, they may ultimately amount to $1 trillion, or whatever – are spread in diced and sliced form globally. Which is a good thing for US banks.
Some US banks have started to reveal the damage in bits and pieces and warn about office CRE loans. But foreign banks are also up to their ears in this stuff – Canadian banks, Japanese banks, European banks…. And some warnings have emerged. But a big portion of the office CRE loans are held by investors, not banks, and they have gotten the short end of the stick.
We have discussed this phenomenon here for a year – how the
biggest office CRE losses haven’t hit the US banks as much, but have hit investors in Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) and Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) which are held in big baskets of relatively small slices by institutional investors, such as bond funds, pension funds, insurance companies not just in the US but around the world.
And losses have hit publicly traded and private property REITs and mortgage REITs whose investors span the globe; they’ve hit PE firms and hedge funds and other nonbank entities whose investors span the globe – to the point that we espoused the theory that US banks had been able to sell their riskiest worst office property debt, back during the “office shortage” when times were good and money was free, by securitizing it or selling it outright to institutional investors around the globe.