My long-held belief is that economic growth without quality of life - in terms of time for our friends and family, time to reflect, responsible green practices - is meaningless
Therefore I have been against mainstream thought all my life and have even annoyed many people during this bear market by celebrating the destruction of wealth. I make no apologies for what I feel is a very well-grounded belief
Economic prosperity to the extent of people having enough - that's good. But when people become greedy and let market forces dictate evrything they do, then wealth destruction is the necessary discipline
When the crunch really bites, property will collapse big time. If you are a buyer, think! Why buy now when you can save up to 40% by waiting one year.
If you buy now, there is ZERO chance of upside and CERTAINTY of downside. Unless you buy at mortgagee auction, don't buy now. Let the sellers become desperate as banks squeeze them. It will take about six months before they cannot tahan servicing negative equity property
Here is more good news from Business Times (BTW do you know you can read this paper for free before 6am).
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,303779,00.html?
Published November 3, 2008
EYE ON THE ECONOMY
All indicators down: BT-UniSIM survey
The business climate study's findings point to possibly a 1.2% GDP contraction in Q4
By TEH SHI NING
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(SINGAPORE) Key indicators of a business activity survey have fallen to their lowest readings in five years, with the sentiment measure down to nearly a seven-year low.
What's more, the findings from the latest BT-UniSIM business climate survey - which have been found to correlate closely with Singapore's economic performance over the poll's near 13-year history - point to possibly a 1.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) contraction in Q4. Following an already negative Q3 according to flash estimates, that would spell two consecutive quarters of year-on-year GDP contraction, or a so-called classical recession.
Conducted in the first two weeks of October, the quarterly survey of 154 local and foreign companies found that all four indicators - sales, profits, new business orders and business prospects - worsened across the board in Q3 2008, regardless of the firms' size, ownership or sector.
Notably, the overall business prospects net balance - the difference between the proportion of companies that expect better times and those expecting worse - has fallen sharply.
This gauge of business confidence is down to -47 per cent in Q3, 22 points down from the preceding quarter, and an 86-point plunge from a year ago. It is also at its lowest since the end of 2001, surpassing the troughs during Sars-struck 2003.
The sales net balance also slipped 21 points from Q2 to -9 per cent, falling into the red for the first time in about five years.
Also down to a five-year low is the net balance reading for new business orders, which lost 49 points year on year to -17 per cent.
Only the profits net balance indicator - at -9 per cent, down four points from Q2 - may not seem to have plunged too much, but only because the earnings measure started crashing, into the red, earlier, since Q1 this year.
Foreign firms, which produced the poorest readings in the Q2 survey, did not fare much worse on profits and new orders in Q3. Nonetheless, they were the most pessimistic group for a third consecutive quarter, with their business prospects indicator falling 29 points to -65 per cent from Q2.
Local firms have now outperformed foreign firms on all indicators for three straight quarters, but they too have become more bearish. Their business prospects indicator slid 27 points to -40 per cent from three months back.
In terms of size, small firms saw the biggest declines in all four net balance indicators, and no longer outperformed large companies in sales and profits as they did in Q2.
The survey also found that foreign and small firms suffered less declines in sales and orders in Singapore than abroad, while for local and large firms, the opposite held true.
Industry-wise, the construction sector emerged the 'star performer' for a third straight quarter, clinching top spots for all indicators overall, particularly among local and small firms.
The bleak business climate painted by the BT-UniSIM survey is further reflected by the GDP forecast it generates.
Over the years, the business prospects measure, lagged by one quarter, has been found to be a good predictor of Singapore's GDP growth. This time, the regression analysis forecasts that the economy will likely contract by between 0.7 and 1.2 per cent in Q4.
If the official early estimate of a 0.5 per cent year-on-year GDP contraction for Q3 is not revised to a positive figure, the predicted Q4 pace would spell Singapore's first 'classical' recession since the 2001-2002 downturn.
Singapore is already in technical recession, with both Q2 and Q3 having turned in negative quarter-on-quarter GDP figures.
Survey director Chow Kit Boey, however, notes that the predicted Q4 GDP contraction appears 'mild' compared with past negative numbers.
NUS associate professor Tilak Abeysinghe, who does research on the Singapore economy, suggests that the economy would have had to fare real badly in Q4 for the GDP pace to hit the lower end of the survey's predicted range.
Q4 2007's 5.4 per cent GDP growth (compared to Q3 2007's 9.3 per cent) already amounts to a fairly low base, he said. But a Q4 contraction 'is not entirely unlikely though, given the current outlook', he told BT.
Therefore I have been against mainstream thought all my life and have even annoyed many people during this bear market by celebrating the destruction of wealth. I make no apologies for what I feel is a very well-grounded belief
Economic prosperity to the extent of people having enough - that's good. But when people become greedy and let market forces dictate evrything they do, then wealth destruction is the necessary discipline
When the crunch really bites, property will collapse big time. If you are a buyer, think! Why buy now when you can save up to 40% by waiting one year.
If you buy now, there is ZERO chance of upside and CERTAINTY of downside. Unless you buy at mortgagee auction, don't buy now. Let the sellers become desperate as banks squeeze them. It will take about six months before they cannot tahan servicing negative equity property
Here is more good news from Business Times (BTW do you know you can read this paper for free before 6am).
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,303779,00.html?
Published November 3, 2008
EYE ON THE ECONOMY
All indicators down: BT-UniSIM survey
The business climate study's findings point to possibly a 1.2% GDP contraction in Q4
By TEH SHI NING
Email this article
Print article
Feedback
(SINGAPORE) Key indicators of a business activity survey have fallen to their lowest readings in five years, with the sentiment measure down to nearly a seven-year low.
What's more, the findings from the latest BT-UniSIM business climate survey - which have been found to correlate closely with Singapore's economic performance over the poll's near 13-year history - point to possibly a 1.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) contraction in Q4. Following an already negative Q3 according to flash estimates, that would spell two consecutive quarters of year-on-year GDP contraction, or a so-called classical recession.
Conducted in the first two weeks of October, the quarterly survey of 154 local and foreign companies found that all four indicators - sales, profits, new business orders and business prospects - worsened across the board in Q3 2008, regardless of the firms' size, ownership or sector.
Notably, the overall business prospects net balance - the difference between the proportion of companies that expect better times and those expecting worse - has fallen sharply.
This gauge of business confidence is down to -47 per cent in Q3, 22 points down from the preceding quarter, and an 86-point plunge from a year ago. It is also at its lowest since the end of 2001, surpassing the troughs during Sars-struck 2003.
The sales net balance also slipped 21 points from Q2 to -9 per cent, falling into the red for the first time in about five years.
Also down to a five-year low is the net balance reading for new business orders, which lost 49 points year on year to -17 per cent.
Only the profits net balance indicator - at -9 per cent, down four points from Q2 - may not seem to have plunged too much, but only because the earnings measure started crashing, into the red, earlier, since Q1 this year.
Foreign firms, which produced the poorest readings in the Q2 survey, did not fare much worse on profits and new orders in Q3. Nonetheless, they were the most pessimistic group for a third consecutive quarter, with their business prospects indicator falling 29 points to -65 per cent from Q2.
Local firms have now outperformed foreign firms on all indicators for three straight quarters, but they too have become more bearish. Their business prospects indicator slid 27 points to -40 per cent from three months back.
In terms of size, small firms saw the biggest declines in all four net balance indicators, and no longer outperformed large companies in sales and profits as they did in Q2.
The survey also found that foreign and small firms suffered less declines in sales and orders in Singapore than abroad, while for local and large firms, the opposite held true.
Industry-wise, the construction sector emerged the 'star performer' for a third straight quarter, clinching top spots for all indicators overall, particularly among local and small firms.
The bleak business climate painted by the BT-UniSIM survey is further reflected by the GDP forecast it generates.
Over the years, the business prospects measure, lagged by one quarter, has been found to be a good predictor of Singapore's GDP growth. This time, the regression analysis forecasts that the economy will likely contract by between 0.7 and 1.2 per cent in Q4.
If the official early estimate of a 0.5 per cent year-on-year GDP contraction for Q3 is not revised to a positive figure, the predicted Q4 pace would spell Singapore's first 'classical' recession since the 2001-2002 downturn.
Singapore is already in technical recession, with both Q2 and Q3 having turned in negative quarter-on-quarter GDP figures.
Survey director Chow Kit Boey, however, notes that the predicted Q4 GDP contraction appears 'mild' compared with past negative numbers.
NUS associate professor Tilak Abeysinghe, who does research on the Singapore economy, suggests that the economy would have had to fare real badly in Q4 for the GDP pace to hit the lower end of the survey's predicted range.
Q4 2007's 5.4 per cent GDP growth (compared to Q3 2007's 9.3 per cent) already amounts to a fairly low base, he said. But a Q4 contraction 'is not entirely unlikely though, given the current outlook', he told BT.
