African Morgue Data Reveals A More Significant Covid-19 Death Toll Than Official Reporting
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The low rate of reported Covid-19 infections, hospitalizations and, deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa throughout the pandemic, has raised many questions, especially when Omicron infections swept the globe. Africa has reported over 12 million Covid-19 cases and over 255,000 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. While these numbers are significant, they pale in comparison to reported cases and deaths among countries in North America, Europe, and Asia. It is likely a lack of access to testing is distorting reported data.
New data from a study led by Boston University School of Public Health researchers suggests that the reported Covid-19 death toll in Africa is substantially higher than official records indicate. PCR testing confirmed active Covid-19 infection in nearly 90 percent of deceased individuals at a morgue in Lusaka, Zambia. By contrast, only 10 percent of these individuals tested positive for Covid-19 while alive. The researchers further confirmed Covid-19 as the cause of death through lung biopsies on a select subset. The study was conducted during peak transmission periods between July 2020 and June 2021.
The results of this study build upon the author’s previous postmortem surveillance of Covid-19 at the same morgue in Lusaka published in February 2021. The study found that 15-19 percent of 70 deceased individuals tested positive for the virus between June-October 2020. The majority of deaths occurred outside of hospitals and in communities with very limited or even existent Covid-19 testing.
The results of these studies suggest that there is gross underreporting of cases and deaths in Africa due to limited resources and lack of access to testing. This represents a serious unacknowledged threat not only to the people of Africa and visitors to the country but also for the generation and evolution of new viral variants.
Accurate Covid-19 mortality reporting is essential to inform the choices of the public health officials and individuals. By understanding the mortality risk associated with Covid-19, the public can assess their own risk and make use of life-saving tools like masks, vaccines, and antiviral drugs.
Unfortunately, as we enter our fourth year of a pandemic that shows no sign of slowing down. Under-reporting of Covid data seems to be the new pandemic spreading across the world. China, once a leader in pandemic control, is now using a narrow definition for reporting Covid deaths, including only people whose death is caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure. At this stage of the pandemic, we now understand that issues like blood clots, heart problems, and sepsis can be directly caused by Covid-19 infection and have resulted in countless deaths around the world. China has also reduced their requirements for mass testing, quarantine, and isolation. According to the GISAID database, China is also not providing up-to-date information about current variants. China has submitted a total of just 667 Omicron sequences, compared to nearly two million from the U.S.
As long as access to testing remains an issue, surveillance of Covid-19 mortality needs to include cases where infection is presumed but not confirmed and use a broader definition of what constitutes a Covid death. Only then can we help protect our communities from the risk of death from Covid-19 infection.
In the US, the CDC has been updating cases and deaths on a weekly basis instead of a daily basis since late October. This time lag makes it far more difficult to predict risk and surges. State health departments also face an uncertain future regarding the funding they need to continue reporting. Other countries like Australia have also shifted to weekly reporting despite experiencing a higher mortality than any other stage in the pandemic.
Reducing reporting capacity or underreporting globally at a time when Covid variants are evolving to become immune evasive is akin to walking into a storm without checking the forecast.
www.forbes.com
.
The low rate of reported Covid-19 infections, hospitalizations and, deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa throughout the pandemic, has raised many questions, especially when Omicron infections swept the globe. Africa has reported over 12 million Covid-19 cases and over 255,000 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. While these numbers are significant, they pale in comparison to reported cases and deaths among countries in North America, Europe, and Asia. It is likely a lack of access to testing is distorting reported data.
New data from a study led by Boston University School of Public Health researchers suggests that the reported Covid-19 death toll in Africa is substantially higher than official records indicate. PCR testing confirmed active Covid-19 infection in nearly 90 percent of deceased individuals at a morgue in Lusaka, Zambia. By contrast, only 10 percent of these individuals tested positive for Covid-19 while alive. The researchers further confirmed Covid-19 as the cause of death through lung biopsies on a select subset. The study was conducted during peak transmission periods between July 2020 and June 2021.
The results of this study build upon the author’s previous postmortem surveillance of Covid-19 at the same morgue in Lusaka published in February 2021. The study found that 15-19 percent of 70 deceased individuals tested positive for the virus between June-October 2020. The majority of deaths occurred outside of hospitals and in communities with very limited or even existent Covid-19 testing.
The results of these studies suggest that there is gross underreporting of cases and deaths in Africa due to limited resources and lack of access to testing. This represents a serious unacknowledged threat not only to the people of Africa and visitors to the country but also for the generation and evolution of new viral variants.
Accurate Covid-19 mortality reporting is essential to inform the choices of the public health officials and individuals. By understanding the mortality risk associated with Covid-19, the public can assess their own risk and make use of life-saving tools like masks, vaccines, and antiviral drugs.
Unfortunately, as we enter our fourth year of a pandemic that shows no sign of slowing down. Under-reporting of Covid data seems to be the new pandemic spreading across the world. China, once a leader in pandemic control, is now using a narrow definition for reporting Covid deaths, including only people whose death is caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure. At this stage of the pandemic, we now understand that issues like blood clots, heart problems, and sepsis can be directly caused by Covid-19 infection and have resulted in countless deaths around the world. China has also reduced their requirements for mass testing, quarantine, and isolation. According to the GISAID database, China is also not providing up-to-date information about current variants. China has submitted a total of just 667 Omicron sequences, compared to nearly two million from the U.S.
As long as access to testing remains an issue, surveillance of Covid-19 mortality needs to include cases where infection is presumed but not confirmed and use a broader definition of what constitutes a Covid death. Only then can we help protect our communities from the risk of death from Covid-19 infection.
In the US, the CDC has been updating cases and deaths on a weekly basis instead of a daily basis since late October. This time lag makes it far more difficult to predict risk and surges. State health departments also face an uncertain future regarding the funding they need to continue reporting. Other countries like Australia have also shifted to weekly reporting despite experiencing a higher mortality than any other stage in the pandemic.
Reducing reporting capacity or underreporting globally at a time when Covid variants are evolving to become immune evasive is akin to walking into a storm without checking the forecast.
African Morgue Data Reveals A More Significant Covid-19 Death Toll Than Official Reporting
A new study led by Boston University School of Public Health researchers suggests that the reported Covid-19 death toll in Africa is substantially higher than official records indicate.www.forbes.com
