A viewer's guide to the U.S. election

[Sun Jian]

A viewer's guide to the U.S. election

BY DAVID COLETTO , QMI AGENCY
FIRST POSTED: SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 03, 2012 12:00 AM EDT

U.S. President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney meet at the 67th Annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation dinner in New York, October 18, 2012. REUTERS/Jason Reed

In the past week, a half-dozen national and more than 100 state-level polls have been released. With such a flood of information coming from all sides, how do we make sense of it all?

Polls aren't designed to accurately predict behaviour to within one or even two percentage points. And because they rely on what people tell us, good polls can still be wrong if people don't do what they say they will do come voting day.

Alberta also taught us that people can change their minds at the last minute.

But the U.S. polls - both good and bad - have told us that Barack Obama had a big lead prior to the debates and that Mitt Romney closed the gap with his great performance in the first debate.

Obama has an advantage in key states like Ohio, Nevada, and Wisconsin while Romney seems to have a lead in North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia.

What all the polls agree on though is that this election is close.

So what should you be looking for Tuesday night when watching the results come in on the Sun News Network (coverage starts at 5 p.m. ET/3 p.m. MT)?

Here's what I'm looking for if Romney is going to win:

What does the electorate look like?

If turnout among Hispanics, younger voters, and African Americans is as high or higher than 2008, Obama will likely have a good night. It means he will likely win in states like Colorado, Nevada, and even Virginia, where these groups are critical to an Obama win.

If turnout is lower among these groups, contradicting some of the national and state polls, then Romney may well be on his way to victory.

Watch the exit poll results that will come out late afternoon/early evening. They aren't perfect, but may give a sense of what will unfold later in the evening.

What happens in Ohio?

I have been saying repeatedly on the Sun News Network that Ohio, with its 18 electoral votes, is a must win for Romney. Without Ohio, Romney will have to almost sweep all the other swing states in order to get to 270 electoral votes - the number needed to win.

Polls in Ohio close at 7 p.m. ET so we should get a good sense early as to whether Romney or Obama will have a good night.

If Romney loses Ohio, can he get to 270?

If Romney does not win Ohio, he will have to win states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Polls in those states give the advantage to Obama. So if Romney does win one or two of them, it will be a surprise and the polls will have missed the call again.

Also, I'm assuming here that Romney wins Florida. If he doesn't - just forget about it - Obama is president.

My money is on an Obama victory. Romney's road to 270 electoral votes is just so much harder than Obama's.

The polls still favour the president but, like all elections, it all depends on who shows up.

 

[Sun Jian]

Millions ride on US election result

BY SIMON KENT
FIRST POSTED: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 02, 2012 04:30 PM EDT | UPDATED: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 02, 2012 04:41 PM EDT

Gamblers around the world are flooding bookmakers and gambling websites to have a flutter on the outcome of next Tuesday's US election result.

TORONTO - Conventional wisdom dictates there are three options for the dedicated gambler seeking to be parted with their hard earned cash.

Fast cars are the most fun; slow horses the most agonizing; farming the most certain.

Now it’s time to add a new category to ways to lighten your wallet; betting on the outcome of a US presidential election.

Around the world online gambling sites and traditional bookmakers are currently holding millions in dollars and pounds, euros and yen, dinars, rubles, francs and pesos on that very parlay.

The amounts represent the sum total of just how much people are prepared to follow their hunch with a flutter on whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney is destined to lead the most powerful country on earth.

Few would be holding more money ahead of next Tuesday’s election day than British bookmaker Ladbrokes.

Company spokesman David Williams says there is unprecedented interest in the 2012 US election and his company is taking bets from gamblers (punters in Brit speak) from every corner of the earth.

“We are very straightforward in the way we operate,” Williams said via phone interview from London. “You decide the wager and put it down. The punters therefore frame the market and the weight of their money delivers the odds.

“I can say that we have taken bets on this election from all corners of the earth. It has captured the popular imagination of because in the digital age more people know about the election than ever before.

“It is inescapable and it attracts money. Lots of it.”

Ladbrokes in general and Williams in particular should know. They have history on their side.

Ladbrokes was established as a track side horse racing operation in 1886 and has been framing odds on US elections since Jimmy Carter took on Ronald Reagan in 1980.

A full 20 years before that it began holding bets on the outcome of British elections.

What is different now is the democratization of gambling, courtesy of the internet. It has helped make Ladbrokes the biggest bookmaker in the world.

Whereas once in the UK anyone wishing to place a bet would have had to wander into what the Brits call a betting shop, gamblers now do it anonymously online and in greater numbers than ever before.

Williams insists that’s why, on the evidence, the bookies get it right every time. Here’s why.

Gamblers aren’t interested in preferred opinions and possible side outcomes. For the most part they are picking a winner.

They don’t skew their choices according to who is asking the question as a person responds to an opinion pollster. Gambling is therefore a direct, hardheaded measure of how people think. It is devoid of sentiment.

Gamblers are their own broad sample. Pollsters always talk about canvassing as wide a variety of sociographic segments as possible to frame a market of probability.

Gamblers are their own segment, crossing every socio economic divide.

So who will win next week? Speculators are putting their money firmly on the incumbent.

Barack Obama is still the favoured choice with around 75% of Ladbroke customers while Mitt Romney remains the outsider – but closing – with the remainder.

At the end of the presidential debates, Obama was 2/5 favorite with Ladbrokes. That meant a punter would have to gamble 5 pounds ($17.6) to win 2 pounds.

Challenger Romney offered better odds of 15/8, allowing to almost double their money with a winning bet.

The two now stand at ¼ and 11/4 respectively.

Not that the first past the post winner is the only option available.

You can bet on who will win the most electoral college votes on a state-by-state basis.

During the debates you could have had a wager on which coloured tie the two contenders wore as well as the overall winner. You could have plunged a fortune on who was the longest talker, who used the most clichés and who was the first to mention Osama Bin Laden.

If all of that leaves you cold, Ladbrokes is now taking bets on another race.

Will Skyfall be the first James Bond film since Thunderball in 1965 to win an Oscar? The odds are currently standing at 7/4 in its favour.

If you want to bet on whether or not Skyfall lead Daniel Craig will be a candidate at the next US election, you can even bet on that too.

The prospect of hearing a US president say “the name’s Bond, James Bond” at the inauguration is almost too exquisite for words.