6 articles by Leong Sze Hian [Must Read] cannot be posted on TOC due to slow server

[leongszehian]

INDEX SHOWS AFFORDABLE HOUSING AN ISSUE IN GE 2011

Construction of Ratio and its Change

Affordability Ratio is a Price over Earnings ratio or years-purchase that most stock investors will understand. It is the number of years a household will take to repay the purchase of a house.

The price used is that of a 4-room HDB resale flat nominally priced at $255,000 as at 1Q2011 and discounted backwards to year 1990 using the HDB Resale Price Index.

The earnings used is the medium monthly household income from the Department of Statistics. Figures (in blue) for years 1991 to 1994 and 1996 are interpolated as data was not found.

Affordability Ratio is therefore the price divided by earnings and further divided by 25 percent and 12 months. 25 percent of a household earnings is the maximum proportion set aside for housing. And 12 months is to bring the ratio from a months-purchase to a years-purchase basis.

The Change in Affordability Ratio is computed by the rate of change of an affordability ratio of a year over the previous year. A positive percentage means that the Affordability Ratio has decreased as it takes a lesser number of years to pay off the purchase. On the other hand, a negative percentage means the Affordability Ratio has increased as it takes a greater number of years to pay off the purchase.



Finally in the % Change in Affordability Ratio, there have been positive percentages in the General Elections of 1991, 1997, 2001 and 2006. By the above measures, the affordability of housing in GE 1997 must have been a difficult one. It had successive years of high negative percentages before turning positive in year 1997.

Since GE 2006, the % Change in Affordability Ratio has been generally on a downward trend and stayed negative throughout. It has crept up to just below the peak in year 1996. Singaporeans have also become more aware and vocal about keeping public housing affordable, now especially that - the alternative - private housing for the middle income has reached an all time high.

Lim Tong Kay and Leong Sze Hian

 

[leongszehian]

Re: 6 articles by Leong Sze Hian [Must Read] cannot be posted on TOC due to slow serv

GE: Minimum wage - A 'statistical' analysis [5th of 5 articles by Leong Sze Hian]
GE: Minimum wage - A 'statistical' analysis

I refer to the reports "GE: PAP says WP's proposal for minimum wage will lead to complacency” (Channel News Asia video, May 2)http://www.channelnewsasia.com/video/index.php and "More shortcomings than benefits in minimum wage system, says Lim Swee Say" (Channel News Asia, Apr 25).http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1124806/1/.html

The latter states that "He said 90 per cent of countries wordwide have adopted a minimum wage system to pay workers".

What type of countries?

Since there are about 195 countries in the world, it may be
instructive to name the 20 or so which do not have a minimum wage.

I believe few if any of these countries are developed countries like
Singapore, with a high cost of living and basically no welfare system.

Are there any developing countries like Singapore which do not have a
minimum wage?

I believe most if not all the 20 or so countries, may be third world
countries, with relatively low cost of living.

No study on minimum wage?

Instead of merely repeating that a minimum wage is not good for
Singapore, why hasn't the Minister backed up his arguments with at
least some sort of study as to how many workers are getting less than
say $800 a month, how many hours do they work, financial impact on
employers, which sectors may be affected and to what extent, feedback
from employers and more importantly from workers and Singaporeans, etc?

Other developed countries with well established and world renowned
universities would normally have embarked on studies of the minimum
wage issue, often with generous funding from the Government and the
private sector.

After all, shouldn't decisions on such an important issue be examined,
preferably with academic vigor?

As I believe no such study has been done in Singapore, at least not
one that has been reported in the media, perhaps the obvious question
to ask may be, why not?

How many earn below $800?

I find it rather strange that whilst the minimum wage figure of around
$800 has been mentioned, notably by some opposition parties, no
statistics are available as to how many Singaporeans are earning not
more than $800?

In this connection, according to the 2010 Census, there were 226,928
resident workers (Singaporeans and permanent residents (PRs)) earning
not more than $1,000, which was about 12 per cent of the total
resident workforce. The break-down is 63,864 earned less than $500 and
163,064 earned $500 - $999.

According to the Ministry of Manpower's (MOM) wage data, about 400,100
resident workers earned not more than $1,200.

So, how many Singaporean workers earn not more than $800?

Why does the Minister not tell us when he dismisses the minimum wage?

I estimate this figure to be about 8 per cent of the workforce, which
may be about 75,000.

If my estimate is not too far off, then the absence of a minimum wage
may continue to make the lives of many Singaporeans and their families
more stressful, as the wages of the lower-income may have declined in
real terms over the last 11 years or so.

This is extrapolated from my analysis of the MOM wage data and the
Department of Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, that the
real median wage only grew by about 1.2 per cent per annum, from 1999
to 2000.

Since the median is half the resident working population, the bottom
quarter or so may have had declining real wages.

Ministers have minimum wage?

I am somewhat perturbed by the logic of having in essense, a minimum
wage for Ministers in order to attract and retain political leaders,
but not a minimum wage for Singaporeans who are toiling away for less
than $800.

Even S-Pass and Employment Pass holders who are foreigners had their
minimum wage raised recently to $2,000 and $2,800, respectively.

May I suggest that the Minister visit the markets, food courts, coffee
shops, and talk to the cleaners, road sweepers, etc, who typically are
elderly Singaporeans who work very long hours , for around $650.

In this connection, according to the 2010 Census, 12,802 age 65 and
above workers worked very long hours - 4,709, 2,609, 1,931 and 3,553,
worked 65 and above, 60- 64, 55 - 59 and 50 - 54 hours, respectively.

Also, 11,273 earned less than $500, but worked very long hours -
2,289, 1,095, 849, 1,329, 1,688 and 4,023 worked 65 and above, 60 -
64, 55 - 59, 50 - 54, 45 - 49 and 40 - 44 hours, respectively.

Security guards

With regard to the example given by the Minister of a security guard
whose pay goes up from $850 to $1,450 after re-training, why is it
that the MOM's data, indicate that the gross pay of private security
officers at the 25th percentile is only $1,100 in 2010, falling from
$1,150 in 2009, despite the record 14.5 per cent GDP growth and robust
job market last year?

If one looks deeper into the generally very long working hours of
security guards today, whose typical work week is between 50 to 70
hours, their increase in pay may be due more to much longer working
hours.

Therefore, perhaps what we need is hourly wage data, instead of just
gross wages data.

Security guards were highlighted by the new PAP Candidate, Mr Desmond
Choo, who said that he understands security guards because his father
is one who works 12-hour shifts, and he is also the Executive
Secretary of the Union of Security Employees .

Workfare

Workfare may not be the solution for all lower-income Singaporeans,
because it does not help those below 35 years old, the bulk of
Workfare (about 71 per cent) goes to CPF, and for the self-employed
its even worse with 100 per cent going to Medisave.

Leong Sze Hian

 

[leongszehian]

Re: 6 articles by Leong Sze Hian [Must Read] cannot be posted on TOC due to slow serv

GE: USA & S'pore financial crisis parallels? [4th of 5 articles by Leong Sze Hian]
GE: USA & S'pore financial crisis parallels?

I refer to the report “S'pore's long-term prospects depend on right policies, right politics” (Channel News Asia, May 1).http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1125939/1/.html

I was watching the documentary movie “Inside Job”,http://www.sonyclassics.com/insidejob/ , which won the Best Documentary Award of the New York Film Critics Circle, on the flight back to Singapore from Monaco.

What struck me was that there may be some similarities between the circumstances and events leading to and following the recent financial crisis, in the United States and Singapore.

Issues that matter?

Longest working hours

Americans are workig the longest hours ever in histoy.

Singaporeans are also working the longest ever in our history – in fact, Singaporeans now have the longest hours worked per week in the world, at 46.6 hours. (Report on Labout Force in Singapore 2010http://www.mom.gov.sg/Documents/statistics-publications/manpower-supply/report-labour-2010/mrsd_2010LabourForce.pdf
and 2010 Census http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/popn/C2010sr3/cop2010sr3.pdf)

Income gap widening

The income gap is the highest ever in American history.

The income gap between the rich and poor as measured by the Gini coefficient, at 42.5 in 2009, for Singapore, has been ranked as the second highest amongst 38 countries with very high human development. http://www.pressrun.net/weblog/2010/07/gini-coefficient-income-gap-in-singapore-and-elsewhere.html

Unrelentless economic growth

The United States had an almost 40-year economic boom.

Singapore has also had one of the best economic booms in the world over the last 40 years or so.

Record debt levels

Debt levels just before the crisis, were at its highest ever in the United States.

So are debt levels in Singapore.

To what extent has our higest public housing home ownership rate in the world of over 85 per cent, contributed to Singapore's debt levels?

Predatory lending?

Moneylenders were allowed to charge whatever interest rates they like last year, against the previous cap of 18 per cent per annum.

The number of pages of advertisements offering credit in a daily newspaper, triples over the last year or so.

Credit card debts are at a record high in Singapore, as was the case in the United States before the collapse.

About 1.2 million people in Singapore hold credit cards, with total credit cards of about six million plus another 1.2 million supplementary cards.

About 300,000 have not paid their credt card bills in full for more than three consecutive months, and about 59,000 may be deliquent as they did not even pay the minimum required every month.(“More credit card holders not paying their bills in full”, Channel News Asia, Oct 25)
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1089254/1/.html
Estate tax abolished

Estate tax, income and other taxes were cut in the United States.

Estate tax has been abolished in Singapore and income tax rates for the higher income have been cut too.

Pay conflicts of interest?

One of the primary causes of the financial crisis was the conflict of interest of the financial industry giving contributions, consulting work, board seats, and lobbying politicians in the United States, to allow the unrelentless growth of the industry and the economy, with minimal check and balances or regulation – in particular the compensation packages of Chief Executive Officers (CEOs), senior corporate officers and board members.

Singapore's politicians are the highest paid in the world.

Could paying a GDP bonus to Ministers be a possible conflict of interest as it may be an incentive to grow the economy regardless of the consequences like foreigners taking Singaporeans' jobs, housing, etc.

The parallel here may be akin to the U.S financial industry's unrelentless growth in booked profits and pay, regardess of the risks and undesirable consequences to consumers and citizens.

Independent academic research

Conflicts of interest whereby academics in th United States were paid handsomely by the financial industry, which may have tainted their idependence of research, media presentations and interviews, etc.

When was the last time that you read in the media in Singapore, about a well researched critical academic analysis on the more contentious issues affecting Singaporeans, like CPF, HDB, healthcare affordaility, etc?

Sub-prime crisis

Just before the financial crisis, the sub-prime delinquency rate in the United States was I uderstand less than seven per cent.

In contrast, HDB Concessionary and HDB bank loans in arrears over three months have been estimated to be as high as seven per cent historically (HDB bank loan statistics are not available, and HDB loan statistics have only been sparingly disclosed occasionally, as and when questons were asked in Parliament).(“HDB home loan defaults on the rise”, ST, Jan 5, 2009)
http://www.asiaone.com/Business/My+Money/Property/Story/A1Story20090105-112414.html

In conclusion, given the above parallels between Singapore and the United States before and after the financial crisis, what does the future hold for Singapore's long-term prospects, and are we pursuing the right policies, right politics?



Leong Sze Hian

 

[leongszehian]

GE: Good jobs, better pay – Really?

GE: Good jobs, better pay – Really? [3rd of 5 articles by Leong Sze Hian]
GE: Good jobs, better pay – Really?

I refer to the article “PM'S MAY DAY RALLY SPEECH: 'Govt to create good jobs, better pay for workers'” (ST, May 2).http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_663493.html

It states that “The government's strategy to improve Singapore workers' lives has worked and it will continue to use this successful formula to create growth, good jobs and steady increase in real wages for them over the long-term, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Sunday”.

Real median income growth

As the median income for resident workers was $2,000 in 2000, after adjusting for inflation to $2,500 in 2010, does it mean that the real income growth over the last decade or so was only just over one per cent per annum?

From my analysis of the Ministry of Manpower's (MOM) wage data and the
Department of Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the real median wage only grew by about 1.2 per cent per annum, from 1999 to 2010.

Real lower-income growth

Since the median is half the resident working population, the bottom
quarter or so may have had declining real wages.

According to the 2010 Censushttp://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/popn/C2010sr3/cop2010sr3.pdf, there were 226,928 resident workers (Singaporeans and permanent residents (PRs)) earning not more than $1,000, which was about 12 per cent of the total resident workforce. The break-down is 63,864 earned less than $500 and 163,064 earned $500 - $999.

According to MOM's wage data (Report on the Labour Force 2010http://www.mom.gov.sg/Documents/statistics-publications/manpower-supply/report-labour-2010/mrsd_2010LabourForce.pdf, 400,100 resident workers which is about 21 per cent of total workers earned not more than $1,200.

This $1.200 figure has been used over the last 10 years or so – shouldn’t it be adjusted for inflation?

If the $1,200 is adjusted for inflation, how many residents are earning an inflation-adjusted $1,200 today? If we add to this inflation-adjusted figure, the 66,400 unemployed as at Decembr last year, and the 10,900 discouraged unemployed who have given up looking for a job, I estimate the grand total to be more than half a million, who earn less than $1,200 (inflation-adjusted) or are unemployed.

The number of unemployed residents was 64,400 in December. How many are Singapreans since the resident data is not broken down to Singaporeans and PRs?

4 times more rate of change of growth of foreigners than locals?

A total of 115 900 jobs were created last year. Local employment (Singaporeans and PRs) grew by 56,200 and foreign employment grew by 59,700. This means that the rate of change of growth in foreign employment over the previous year’s minus 4,200 was about four times more than that for locals over the previous year’s 41,800.

This is despite the consistent rhetoric that the influx of foreign workers into Singapore will be curtailed. Also, since the data for locals includes both Singaporeans and PRs, how many of the jobs created actually went to Singaporeans?

Since the number of new citizens and permanent residents was about 49,000 (29,265 PRs and 18,758 new citizens) last year, how many of the 56,200 increase in local jobs went to Singaporeans?

Also, while the incidence of training among the unemployed increased for the fourth successive year to reach a decade-high of 19% in 2010, are the unemployed who undergoe training counted as unemployed? I believe the answer is no.

Longest working hours in the world?

The report also revealed that the average (mean) usual hours worked per week among employed residents rose by 1.0 hour over the year to 46.6 hours in 2010 “… the usual weekly working hours increased over the year for both full-time (from 47.9 to 49.2 hours) and part-time (from 21.1 to 21.6 hours) employed residents”.

Since last year's real income increase was only 0.5 per cent, despite the record 14.5 per cent record GDP growth, if we adjust for the longer woking hours, what was the real income increase?

More part-timers

According to the MOM report, the number and share of part-timers in the resident workforce rose to 176,700 or 9.0% in 2010 from 156,200 or 8.4% in 2009. Does it mean that more Singaporeans may prefer to work part-time, or that it may be harder to get a full-time job?

Perhaps what is interesting is that around half or 49% of the part-timers in 2010 were “willing and available to work additional hours (i.e. underemployed … the number of underemployed residents rose from 80,500 or 4.3% of all employed residents to 86,600 or 4.4% over the year … older residents aged 60 & over (8.8%) and in their 50s (6.1%) also had higher underemployment rates than those in their 20s to 40s (2.3 to 4.2%)”.

So, does this mean that a lot of people, particularly the older ones, were willing to work more, but could not get more work?

Term contracts getting shorter?

Another interesting statistic may be that those on term contracts of more than 2 years declined by 31.7 per cent, and those on 3 months to less than 6 months increased by 14 per cent.

Does this mean that those on contract jobs are being offered shorter contracts, and thus may run a higher risk of being more frequently unemployed if their contracts are not renewed?

Older, harder to get job?

The report also indicated that once out of work, mature residents were more likely to stay unemployed for extended periods. “Close to three in ten (28%) resident job seekers aged 40 & over had been looking for work for at least 25 weeks in June 2010, higher than two in ten (20%) for all job seekers.”

So, the older you get, the harder it may be to get another another job.

The above statistics do not seem to commensurate with the statement that Singaporeans have gotten good jobs and steady increase in real wages.

Leong Sze Hian

 

[leongszehian]

Re: GE: Good jobs, better pay – Really?

Elections: Numbers talking (Part 2) [2nd Article by Leong Sze Hian]
Elections: Numbers talking (Part 2)

Helping the needy?

I refer to the articles “BG Tan unveils plans to help less well-off in Chai Chee” (ST, Apr 29)http://www.straitstimes.com/GeneralElection/News/Story/STIStory_662719.html
and “$3m scheme to help 30,000 needy” (ST, Apr 21). http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_659369.html

The latter states that “It is giving out $3 million worth of discount vouchers - three times the value dished out last year - to about 30,000 low-income members”.

8 cents a day?

Last year, NTUC gave vouchers that were about three times less than this year, i.e. $30.

This works out to about 8 cents a day per family ($30 divided by 365 days) for last year, and about 27 cents per day for this year, to each needy union member's family who successfully apply.

Since NTUC union membership fees are $117 per annum, one way of looking at it, may be that if you are a needy union member family, you got about 25 per cent ($30 vouchers divided by $117 membership fee) of your union dues back in the form of discount vouchers last year, and will get about 85 per cent back this year.

August 1 then can use?

Although the article said “The vouchers will be given out by Aug 1”, according to NTUC's web sitehttp://www.ntuc.org.sg/wps/portal/up2/home/aboutntuc/newsroom/mediareleases/mediareleasesdetails?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/content_library/ntuc/home/about+ntuc/newsroom/media+releases/d9140a804690367e9115b3cd32e0f7cd , “These vouchers will be valid from 1 August 2011 till 31 January 2012”.

So, when warehouse coordinator Mohamed Ansary Ismail, age 43, who is the sole breadwinner supporting his wife and three teenage cildren on his $1,500 monthly wage, whose monthly grocery bill is only about $150, said, “Normally I try to watch what I spend and stick to the basics like rice and sugar. But I can afford to splurge a bit more on my family when I receive the vouchers - and is glad of the helping hand”, I wonder if he knows that he can only use the vouchers in about more than three months time from 1 August.

Hopefully, he has not jumped the gun and told his children already, and perhaps suffer a temporary disappointment when he reads the fine print when he receives his vouchers.

Why can't the vouchers be effective immediately and dispatched as and when they are approved after eligible union members apply? Can and should needy families have to wait for more than three months?

Total membership dues?

By the way, with 580,000 members, NTUC's revenue from membership fees alone in a year is about $68 million.

How many needy?

If there are 30,000 needy union members' families out of NTUC's 580,000 membership, how many needy families are there in total in Singapore, since the total number of resident workers is 1,990,700, as of December, 2010. http://www.mom.gov.sg/Publications/mrsd_Q42010empsit.pdf

How much in total in a year?

How much profits do all the NTUC subsidiaries (12 NTUC social entreprises)http://www.ntuc.org.sg/wps/portal/u...on+structure/7857d200450a79f7b022fe96656b86bc make in a year, on top of its fund raising efforts, like the $6.9 million which has been raised under the U Care Fund in this year alone, after just about three months?

“Commentary and opinions are a dime a dozen – let the statistics do the talking!”

Leong Sze Hian

 

[leongszehian]

GE: 25 things that may need to be more transparent?

GE: 25 things that may need to be more transparent? [1st of 5 articles by Leong Sze Hian]
GE: 25 things that may need to be more transparent?

I refer to the reports “GE: When the storm hits us, whom do you trust? asks PAP's Foo Mee Har” (Channel News Asia, Apr 30)http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1125853/1/.html
and “GE: S'pore government is open and not afraid to tell the truth, says DPM Wong” (Channel News Asia, Apr 24).http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1124558/1/.html

The latter states that “Deputy Prime Minister Wong Kan Seng said the government is open and is not afraid to tell the people the truth or learn from mistakes”.

In the interest of transparency and accountability, I would like to cite the following which in my view may be somewhat lacking in Singapore:-

Mas Selamat

1)The Mas Selamat Committee of Inquiry of three persons were appointed by the Home Minister, with one member from his ministry. Parts the Committee’s report were not made public.

Jobs

2)No breakdown of the labour, employment and unemployment statistics into Singaporeans and permanent residents (PRs).

3)Why did the Ministry of Manpower decline to reveal the number of foreigners who have been given the 'pass' to stay in Singapore to look for employment?

4)How many foreign university interns work in a year in Singapore? This category does not need to meet any of the foreign worker quota policies.

5)What percentage of the jobs in the two integrated resorts (IRs) are Singaporeans?

Healthcare

6)The rejection rate of Singaporeans who apply for Medifund because they could not pay for their medical bills, has never been disclosed. The Ministry of Health discloses yearly, the number of successful applications (number of times), but not the number of patients who were rejected.

7)Singapore’s Standard Drug List is not made public. If made public, we may know what drugs are non-subsidised.

8)Does Medishield make a profit? What is the surplus if any?

9)How many people who are discharged from hospital were unable to pay their medical bills?

HDB

10)The breakdown of the costs of building HDB flats.

11)HDB Annual Reports’ ‘applications for financial assistance approved’ statistics, have disappeared from its 2005/2006 Annual Report onwards.

12)How many HDB bank loans are in arrears over three months?

13)How many HDB bank loans have been foreclosed by banks?

14)How many foreigners and PRs in total are staying in SERS (Selective En-bloc Re-Development Scheme) HDB flats, former JTC, SIT, etc, flats as rental tenants?

15)How many Singaporean siblings below 35 successfully applied to buy HDB resale flats under the former ‘siblings’ policy which was terminated in March 2011. How may PR siblings have successfully applied?

16)How many HDB households were unable to pay their Service and Conservancy Fees (S&CC) in a year?

17)How many have been charged in court for not paying, in a year?

Education

18)Total number and proportion of undergraduate and post-graduate foreign and PR students in the total population of NUS, NTU and SMU.

Comcare

19)How many families have ever successfully applied for financial assistance historically, under Comcare?

CPF

20)How many self-employed are in arrears on their compulsory Medisave contributions?

21)Why is the actuarial study done on CPF Life not made public? How do we know what assumptions and methodology are being used in the computations and projections in the scheme?

Electricity

22)Why are the contracts between the suppliers of natural gas and power generation companies confidential?

Burma

23)How much arms and military related supplies have we sold to Burma?

Changi airport

24)How much will Temasek pay for Changi airport, as I believe this amount was not discussed in the Parliamentary debate on the corporatisation of the airport?

Reserves

25)Singaporeans have never been told what is the amount of our reserves?
In the ChannelNewsAsia reporthttp://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/335162/1/.html -
“Mrs Lim (Hwee Hua, Minister of State for Finance) said: “You asked how much reserves we have. I’m sorry – I am not able to give you that answer. There are many, many people who are interested in how much we have. It has nothing to do with not wanting Singaporeans to know. It’s only if we go public with you, a lot of other people will know.””


Leong Sze Hian

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

Re: 6 articles by Leong Sze Hian [Must Read] cannot be posted on TOC due to slow serv

deserves a bump!

 

[genetics]

Re: 6 articles by Leong Sze Hian [Must Read] cannot be posted on TOC due to slow serv

Bump to support !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[tookara]

Re: 6 articles by Leong Sze Hian [Must Read] cannot be posted on TOC due to slow serv

hope the workers of singapore especially singapore citizen voters can realise this

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

Re: 6 articles by Leong Sze Hian [Must Read] cannot be posted on TOC due to slow serv

gotta bump this one again chaps!