2 Parties to watch over the next 5 years.

[scroobal]

No it is not the WP or the PAP. The WP appears to have a reasonably well entrenched formula governed by good party discipline and can only go from strength to strength albeit in a slow but measured way.

PAP will remain the same but the populace will be watching changes in legislation and election rules such as effectiveness of GRCs, etc to thwart the opposition similar to what they had done after 1991 which not only reversed the trend but also led to much higher vote share and going back to mid 70s. .

The parties to watch will be SDP which was the most improved party in terms of vote share with 13.6%, close to double that of the next best party, SPP. The second party to watch is NSP who scored the biggest swing in a GRC with 11% in Tampines and stole significant attention from all parties including the PAP with the Nicole Seah phenomenon.

SDP did not use its usual formula and adopted a strategy similar to main stream Singapore opposition politics which reaped handsome results. NSP got engaged earlier than usual and ran the biggest slate of candidates. Interestingly both parties do not have a clear formula or strategy and were on a agenda driven by a group of impressive candidates (who for want of a better term I would call independent candidates) who had either worked with other opposition parties or who had approached other opposition parties and who were either unable to accommodate them or the candidates themselves did not find the synergy that they were looking for. Both SDP and NSP have had encouraging results and this alone should spur to change tack, drop their past model if they had one and work on a more effective strategy.

Their core challenge for both of them would be the retention of these impressive independent candidates. Vincent Wijeyasingha will remain with SDP in view of his interest in certain areas and re-define the face of SDP and it augurs well for them. Chee will provide the discipline and I see it doing well.

NSP is at the cross-roads. If Sebastian continues as the Landlord and GMS the tenant farmer, the construct will see capable candidates leaving. My sense is that the NSP will break up into factions and will eventually split the party. All the vets performed badly including one whose nomination paper address omission was highlighted by the PAP to allow enough time for correction.

I am writing off RPP as I think that KJ is not only a poor leader but now seems delusional as seen his post election letters to constituents and to WP.

SPP though not a write-off does not have the legs both in the figurative and literal sense not only to go the distance but to last. It was built around one man and after 27 years, it is still around one man. Ben is not the NCMP but Lina is. I am not sure how it will raise the profile of SPP.

One thing is for sure, the customary horse trading will no longer take the form and shape that it had since independence. My sense is that bilateral negotiations will take place long before expiry of the current term of Parliament. One thing is for sure these 5 will be the new battlegrounds for the PAP and the opposition
East Coast - WP
Tampines - NSP ( breakaway faction)
Marine Parade - NSP (breakaway faction)
PP - Ben Pwee with SPP
Joo Chiat - JJ Yee with WP.

Of the 5, Joo Chiat will fall as they have 2 pluses (JJ and WP) and one negative (Charles Chong, old and not well received and controversial comments). If SPP merges with WP, PP will also fall. East Coast will be defended to the hilt by the PAP and I don't see it capitulating. I see Marine Parade more vulnerable than East Coast.

 

[Amakusa Kourin]

The biggest weakness of SPP is to be over-reliant on Chiam See Tong. I guess after the defeat of PP, they have realized it by now. Now, all eyes will be on Pwee as he is seen as the successor to Chiam. Let us hope he does not do a CSJ or Desmond Lim, and that Chiam will be third time lucky with his successor. Chiam's greatest weakness was his poor judgment of people, I believe he trusted people too easily.

NSP will be interesting to watch because it is obvious that Seb and GMS are having different plans on how to chart the future of NSP. I feel that GMS, despite his political naivety and foolishness, is the man to lead the NSP forward. The important thing for them now is to retain talents like Nicole and Jeanette.

SDP can be better, but not to forget, the shadow of Chee still hangs over the party and many people will get turned off for voting for SDP. Unless Chee steps down and let Vincent be the total man-in-charge, many conservatives will still shun the party due to Chee's previous actions.

 

[sir cum-a-lot]

looking at the recent poll results, indeed, SDP & NSP had probably made the most out of it, contesting in many constituencies, but perhaps spread themselves a little too thin. there were slight loop-holes in how they fielded their candidates, resulting in somewhat anti-climax results.

SDP assembled a very impressive Ace-team to take on holland-bt.timah, but i thought they might have gone knocking at the wrong doors. essentially, that precinct is largely made up of middle-upper or higher income ppl, with only micro percentile of lower income ppl... therefore, the majority wouldnt be too keen to vote for change. i felt they might have had a much better chance of winning, if they had targeted major heartlands like Jurong/ CCK/ kallang-moulmein, for all we know, they may even rattle the PM in AMK big time.

NSP was bold enough to contest in the most constituencies, very encouraging to see them field the most young candidates ever seen in GE (since the nation's independance) but their candidates looked like the party went thru seeding selection, where each team was led by clearly 1 trump card, and was short of an Ace-team to steamroll their way into parliament.

SPP & RP ran into the wall for the recent GE. SPP led by veteran CST, did not have the largest campaign, neither did the votes swing in his favor despite the track record of the incompetence of the public enemy. RP looked like they ran a campaign for the sake of playing cameo, to keep the incumbent occupied. on the whole, there's much for these 2 teams to work on, to make a good come back in the next GE.

as for SDA, went knocking at the wrong door, losing hands down was quite a predictable outcome. they need to get their act together for the next GE, or they may see themselves writing off their election deposits.

 

[BuiKia]

SDP did better simply because Chee was not in the limelight. To many, he is a turn-off and his appearance will remind many people of the stupid things he did. Many still term him as the 'seow' one. I have to say the media had done well to kill his image and imprint it into the minds of many. SDP is unique, it is actually made up of many individuals with different beliefs and political directions but somehow they can come together. It is like a group of friends being able to party together but doing different things at the party. Such party normally dun last very long once things get serious and fractions would surface.

SPP is going down unless Ben can hold it. Lina has no leadership and SPP will be gone if under her. Chiam is a good man but he was unwilling to let go of his power and tries too hard to hold on. He tried to do a 'LKY stunt' by transfering power to his NOK but it didnt work. To me, what did Lina in was the political discussion on TV, she was unprepared, unfocused and miss the main points of many issues that was discussed.

WP could have gunned down Joo Chiat, if they had just put in a little more effort there. They did not give much help to the candidate as they were more concerned about gunning down Aljunied as they wanted to make history especially when their elites were there. Many more will try to join WP after this GE as they are going for the brand name that will increase their chances of becoming an MP. I hope WP has a good process of choosing their members especially if they are going to be fielded as candidate. Any scandal would affect the party as a whole.

NSP had impressive results this time round not because it was good but because others were lousy (e.g. RP). Quite a few of its impressive members were from RP and NSP just happened to be welcoming in fielding anyone. I believe many of the candidates will move out from NSP to other parties unless they think that they have a better chance of being appointment holders in NSP. Good luck GMS, people are eyeing your position.

As for RP and SDA, they are goners to me. They are like distraction to the public like me. We know they are there but unsure of what they are there for. KJ is a lousy leader. I doubt they would be around for long unless they have stronger leaders.

Just my simple thoughts of things...nothing serious...

 

[IR123]

SDP? NSP? These may be credible assuming if the resentment against the PAP remains. However it seems that the PAP is serious about change and perhaps a greater voice to the individuals that make up the PAP leadership, more advocacy instead of conformance. How this will play out will determine the success of the PAP in the next polls. If the PAP can regain the confidence with the PM Lee who demonstrates renewed vigor and a stronger sense of humanity, then there is much less foothold for the NSP and SDP to cling to. Maybe none, reducing their support to the hardcore opposition supporters.

Therefore in my view, the 2 parties to watch for over the next 5 years are the PAP and WP.

The PAP in its outreach to the electorate. PM LHL has started engaging the audience. If he can pull it off, confidence in the PAP will be restored and his reinvention of the PAP may also reinvent Singapore in ways his past policies cannot. I wish him well. The PM's learning curve is then an asset to Singaporeans.

The WP in increasing the electorate's confidence in them via their handling of the Aljunid estate and their involvement in the lives of the people via Parliament. Their blogs, website, books, recordings, newspaper media, involvement in Select Committees, experience in management and a tighter organization become assets which no other parties can match. Most of all, LTK and SL has no hidden agenda in using the party for any sectarian advocacy.

To sum up, the parties did well today primarily because of the electorate's disenchantment with the PAP. Remove that disenchantment and the swing will return back to the PAP. Leaving behind only one proven/disproved opposition party, WP. If proven, it will be clear to more of the talented that their hopes of a parliamentary seat lies with the WP. When that happens, WP is entrenched as the Alternative Party. For example, Nicole Seah if she align with the WP and if the WP accepts her, will find it an extremely beneficial arrangement: her vigor and energy combined with experienced running party mates and strong operations support. Most of all, confidence by the electorate who had seen the WP worked its Aljunid magic over a proven 5 years.

 

[kingrant]

Agreed that SDP and NSP are the ones to be concerned with till the next GE. WP already got a foot in the door, and will use up the 5 years productively to consolidate. I see HG and Aljunied as firmly in their hands.

SDP has a motley crowd composing VW, TJS, AYG and ML. I suppose they would not migrate to the other parties anytime soon as they wont fit into NSP, WP or SPP due to language, ideals compatibility and so SDP is still the best platform for them to be. It's up to Chee to forge this A team as well as SDP into a well-oiled fighting machine for the next GE. Chee shld heed the many adverse comments about himself and his causes, and instead roll up his sleeves and do more grass roots level work. I am just wondering how he can continue as SecGen without being able to contest elections - it's like a non-playing captain. Must be pretty painful and frustrated if I were him.

NSP could have done better. it lacked coordination, stewardship, teamwork, shrewd electoral strategy, and command and control. The Minister-centric ploy was overhyped and overpromised but under-delivered. A pity as there are some gems, like Nicole. It's been like a soccer team with a few stars but no battle strategy and unable to play as a team due to poor captainship.

SPP is a real pity. SPP must be beyond the Chiams, as the PAP has to be beyond the Lees. Benjamin cannot be the only other one. I hope Chiam can do some serious succession planning and come up with a solid team to match WP. Being the oldest Opp MP, he owes Singapore esp PP that.

 

[Amakusa Kourin]

Ang Yong Guan is very unlikely to stay on, I feel he sticks out like a sore thumb. He reminds me more of a Hokkien 'beng' than a English-educated type.

 

[Man On The Street]

With the demise of the emperor, I see more and more quality oppo coming into the woodwork and that means the beginning of the end for the whities. Generally, people are beginning to view candidates in the oppo more favourably than the dirty PAP and anyone worth his salt now will not be seen associating with the whities.

You will have the WP as the dominant party for GE2011, I'm sure of that. Evil will not have its way forever. It will end. and it will end will LHL. That is how karma works...

 

[kukubird58]

hahaha....let me check with my source (little bird).......
oops...he confirms that scroo is BS again.
PS: i am just a messenger.....

 

[aurvandil]

SDP? NSP? These may be credible assuming if the resentment against the PAP remains. However it seems that the PAP is serious about change and perhaps a greater voice to the individuals that make up the PAP leadership, more advocacy instead of conformance. How this will play out will determine the success of the PAP in the next polls. If the PAP can regain the confidence with the PM Lee who demonstrates renewed vigor and a stronger sense of humanity, then there is much less foothold for the NSP and SDP to cling to. Maybe none, reducing their support to the hardcore opposition supporters.

The problem has never been MM or SM. The problem has been bad policy making over the past 20 years. The problems are now so big and so serious that it is unlikely the PAP can solve them in the next 5 years no matter how LHL juggles his cabinet.

Problem is that he has created the perception that he is going to solve everything in order to win the last election.

The leaving of MM and SM plus the "clean slate" spin reinforce this even further.

With a politically awakened Singapore electorate watching the PAP closely, the blowback in 2016 is going to be severe.

 

[Fool_Me_Hard]

The party to watch is the Workers' Party with their successful capture of Aljunied. Presently they will be the only Alternative Party that can pose a serious challenge to the PAP. Many high flyers who are supportive of the Alternative Parties will join them as it gives them a decent chance to get elected. Next election they will be expanding their power base to East Coast and Marine Parade (since Goh Chok Tong will most probably retire by then and Tin Pei Ling have to stand up on her own).

NSP, if they can get their act together and make the party more coherent and disciplined, not only they will retain talents like Tony Tan, Hazel Poa and Nicole Seah, they will attract more like minded professionals. Then they have a chance of sending a few candidates into parliament.

SDP has some talented indivduals like Vicent Wijeysingha, Tan Jee Say and Dr Ang Yong Guan, their agendas seem to be very different and SDP seems to be the only party that accepts personalities from diverse backgrounds and agendas. I think Dr Chee should step down as the secretary general and just be part of the CEC. SDP's bad images still lingers with the voters as long as Dr Chee takes a prominent role.

SPP has to emerge from the shadow of Mr Chiam. They cannot rely on him forever as he is too old and probably have to travel around in wheelchair in 5 years time. Mr Chiam should step down and take an advisor role behind the scene and let Ben Pwee to do the hard and dirty work.

RP Kenneth Jeyaretnam should learn from the mass exodus he is no JBJ or even Mr Low. He is too arrogant, wooden and his deadpan rally speech is only good for people who suffer from insomnia, he should go for PR and public speaking course so that he can create rapport with the people... Otherwise he can only attract delusional jokers to his party.

SDA "I don't know what to say", they are only left with SJP and PKMS??? Which idiot can take them seriously... They can only attract 25% of the hard core opposition supporters and thats it.

 

[po2wq]

... The problem has been bad policy making over the past 20 years. The problems are now so big and so serious that it is unlikely the PAP can solve them in the next 5 years no matter how LHL juggles his cabinet.

Problem is that he has created the perception that he is going to solve everything in order to win the last election.

The leaving of MM and SM plus the "clean slate" spin reinforce this even further.

With a politically awakened Singapore electorate watching the PAP closely, the blowback in 2016 is going to be severe.

mama of all roots of probs is ah loon ...

ah loon is feeling damn proud n arrogant dat he managed 2 fix peasants soundly during last erections ... ah loon dun c ze probs he has created ... dat burger wil oni continue in his evil ways ... he c his probs being peasants grouses n unhappiness in wat he has done ... his solns r 2 find new n improve his existing bag of tricks 2 fix dese peasant noises ...

 

[NoNewsGood]

The party to watch is the Workers' Party with their successful capture of Aljunied. Presently they will be the only Alternative Party that can pose a serious challenge to the PAP. Many high flyers who are supportive of the Alternative Parties will join them as it gives them a decent chance to get elected. Next election they will be expanding their power base to East Coast and Marine Parade (since Goh Chok Tong will most probably retire by then and Tin Pei Ling have to stand up on her own).

NSP, if they can get their act together and make the party more coherent and disciplined, not only they will retain talents like Tony Tan, Hazel Poa and Nicole Seah, they will attract more like minded professionals. Then they have a chance of sending a few candidates into parliament.

SDP has some talented indivduals like Vicent Wijeysingha, Tan Jee Say and Dr Ang Yong Guan, their agendas seem to be very different and SDP seems to be the only party that accepts personalities from diverse backgrounds and agendas. I think Dr Chee should step down as the secretary general and just be part of the CEC. SDP's bad images still lingers with the voters as long as Dr Chee takes a prominent role.

SPP has to emerge from the shadow of Mr Chiam. They cannot rely on him forever as he is too old and probably have to travel around in wheelchair in 5 years time. Mr Chiam should step down and take an advisor role behind the scene and let Ben Pwee to do the hard and dirty work.

RP Kenneth Jeyaretnam should learn from the mass exodus he is no JBJ or even Mr Low. He is too arrogant, wooden and his deadpan rally speech is only good for people who suffer from insomnia, he should go for PR and public speaking course so that he can create rapport with the people... Otherwise he can only attract delusional jokers to his party.

SDA "I don't know what to say", they are only left with SJP and PKMS??? Which idiot can take them seriously... They can only attract 25% of the hard core opposition supporters and thats it.

Good analysis! My friends living in wards contested by RP and SDA said they are the ones who are put in a dilemma.

 

[cicada]

mama of all roots of probs is ah loon ...

ah loon is feeling damn proud n arrogant dat he managed 2 fix peasants soundly during last erections ... ah loon dun c ze probs he has created ... dat burger wil oni continue in his evil ways ... he c his probs being peasants grouses n unhappiness in wat he has done ... his solns r 2 find new n improve his existing bag of tricks 2 fix dese peasant noises ...

+ 1 Bro, same view here after observing ah loon's speechs and mannerism at the victory parade and such.. he is going to do more. with it.. along the way screw the peasants more.. then more sorries... i screw up (you)..

 

[KuanTi01]

Apart from WP at the apex of the opposition camp, I believe SDP & NSP will extend their reach & influence to such an extent that it'll be a significant force to be reckoned with in 5 years' time.They'll do well in their respective turfs. I'm also not ruling out the SPP to win Bishan-TP (with PP) after the usual electoral boundaries tampering provided they can move on and live down the Chiam factor. SPP needs a new impetus instead of being over-reliant on the Chiam factor. If it was really that strong, his wife would have easily won PP.

 

[steffychun]

No it is not the WP or the PAP. The WP appears to have a reasonably well entrenched formula governed by good party discipline and can only go from strength to strength albeit in a slow but measured way.

PAP will remain the same but the populace will be watching changes in legislation and election rules such as effectiveness of GRCs, etc to thwart the opposition similar to what they had done after 1991 which not only reversed the trend but also led to much higher vote share and going back to mid 70s. .

The parties to watch will be SDP which was the most improved party in terms of vote share with 13.6%, close to double that of the next best party, SPP. The second party to watch is NSP who scored the biggest swing in a GRC with 11% in Tampines and stole significant attention from all parties including the PAP with the Nicole Seah phenomenon.

SDP did not use its usual formula and adopted a strategy similar to main stream Singapore opposition politics which reaped handsome results. NSP got engaged earlier than usual and ran the biggest slate of candidates. Interestingly both parties do not have a clear formula or strategy and were on a agenda driven by a group of impressive candidates (who for want of a better term I would call independent candidates) who had either worked with other opposition parties or who had approached other opposition parties and who were either unable to accommodate them or the candidates themselves did not find the synergy that they were looking for. Both SDP and NSP have had encouraging results and this alone should spur to change tack, drop their past model if they had one and work on a more effective strategy.

Their core challenge for both of them would be the retention of these impressive independent candidates. Vincent Wijeyasingha will remain with SDP in view of his interest in certain areas and re-define the face of SDP and it augurs well for them. Chee will provide the discipline and I see it doing well.

NSP is at the cross-roads. If Sebastian continues as the Landlord and GMS the tenant farmer, the construct will see capable candidates leaving. My sense is that the NSP will break up into factions and will eventually split the party. All the vets performed badly including one whose nomination paper address omission was highlighted by the PAP to allow enough time for correction.

I am writing off RPP as I think that KJ is not only a poor leader but now seems delusional as seen his post election letters to constituents and to WP.

SPP though not a write-off does not have the legs both in the figurative and literal sense not only to go the distance but to last. It was built around one man and after 27 years, it is still around one man. Ben is not the NCMP but Lina is. I am not sure how it will raise the profile of SPP.

One thing is for sure, the customary horse trading will no longer take the form and shape that it had since independence. My sense is that bilateral negotiations will take place long before expiry of the current term of Parliament. One thing is for sure these 5 will be the new battlegrounds for the PAP and the opposition
East Coast - WP
Tampines - NSP ( breakaway faction)
Marine Parade - NSP (breakaway faction)
PP - Ben Pwee with SPP
Joo Chiat - JJ Yee with WP.

Of the 5, Joo Chiat will fall as they have 2 pluses (JJ and WP) and one negative (Charles Chong, old and not well received and controversial comments). If SPP merges with WP, PP will also fall. East Coast will be defended to the hilt by the PAP and I don't see it capitulating. I see Marine Parade more vulnerable than East Coast.

Do not bother to look at the SDP. They will never win back seats so long as Chee and Chee remain there.

 

[sengkang]

[QUOTE=scroobal;

hello mr. TJS, after you hoot csm, now join SDP liao hor, good move...

 

[HulkSmash]

Apart from WP at the apex of the opposition camp, I believe SDP & NSP will extend their reach & influence to such an extent that it'll be a significant force to be reckoned with in 5 years' time.They'll do well in their respective turfs. I'm also not ruling out the SPP to win Bishan-TP (with PP) after the usual electoral boundaries tampering provided they can move on and live down the Chiam factor. SPP needs a new impetus instead of being over-reliant on the Chiam factor. If it was really that strong, his wife would have easily won PP.

Ben P already started working grounds in Bishan - Toa Payoh.All the best to SPP!

 

[Forvendet]

Do not bother to look at the SDP. They will never win back seats so long as Chee and Chee remain there.

I agree absolutely. VW and TSJ should do something to get rid of the Chee siblings to stand any real chance.

Ben P already started working grounds in Bishan - Toa Payoh.All the best to SPP!

SPP should concentrate on PP and B-TP. Don't overstretch and carve out a niche in PP and B-TP first, just like the Hougang-Aljunied example.

 

[Heart Break Kid]

I still think the 2 parties to watch are PAP & WP.

(1) The performance of PAP for next 5 years is very important and locals will judge whether the policies implement is at the benefits of locals or foreigners.... working masses or management.

(2) The performance of WP for next 5 years will be uses by locals to determine whether more WP members can be elected into Parliament and create a 2 parties system to pressure the ruling party.

I believe the next GE estimate 5 years down the road will be more exciting than this GE 2011