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18 year old study found - death rates caused by flu in Singapore

Leongsam

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https://europepmc.org/article/med/11957555

Influenza in Singapore: assessing the burden of illness in the community.
Ng TP,

Pwee KH,

Niti M,

Goh LG
Author information
Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore, 01 Mar 2002, 31(2):182-188
PMID: 11957555

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Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Influenza infection has significant morbidity and mortality. The social and economic costs from work absence in the working population and from hospitalisations in the elderly are considerable. Meta-analyses of cohort and randomised controlled studies indicate that influenza vaccination is effective in preventing respiratory illness, hospitalization, pneumonia and death in 50% to 68% of cases. In Singapore, data on the disease burden from influenza are sparse and no official recommendation on influenza vaccination exists.

METHOD: We estimated the disease burden of influenza-like illness (ILI), influenza infection in the general adult population, and hospitalisations and deaths from pneumonia and influenza, from routine official and published sources, and hoc community sample surveys, national virological surveillance, hospitalization and mortality data.

RESULTS: In a resident population of 3 million people, there were 4.2 million cases of ILI in a typical non-epidemic year, 3.5 million visits to the doctor and 2.1 million days of work absence due to ILI. Data from the National Influenza Surveillance Programme indicated that about 15% of patients with ILI were positive for influenza isolates. We therefore estimated 630,000 cases of influenza virus infection cases a year, giving rise to 520,000 sick visits and 315,000 days of sick absence from work. About 4200 elderly (65+) persons were hospitalised for pneumonia and influenza, resulting in about 1450 deaths every year. The literature suggests a vaccine efficacy of about 50% of preventing influenza and its complications, including hospitalizations and deaths. This indicates that at least 315,000 cases of influenza virus infection, 258,000 sick visits, and 157,000 lost days from work in the whole population, and 2100 hospitalisations and 600 deaths from pneumonia in the elderly are potentially preventable by vaccination each year.

CONCLUSION: Influenza poses a considerable burden of illness in the community and the potential benefits from influenza vaccination are substantial.
 
How many have died from Covid-19 again??? Oh dear the deaths have gone up to 17

Time to lockdown the whole nation for a 2 years till a vaccine is formulated. Stay indoors! do not venture out, wear a mask or you will die!!!!
 
This pandemic is turning out to be more a political crisis than a medical one given the low fatalities. Fear has taken over the driver's seat while logic has been locked in the trunk.
 
This pandemic is turning out to be more a political crisis than a medical one given the low fatalities. Fear has taken over the driver's seat while logic has been locked in the trunk.
i wont exactly say that pal,

how many would have died or how serious this thingy would have affected the economy had there been no lockdown ? ...any one knows ?
 
i wont exactly say that pal,

how many would have died or how serious this thingy would have affected the economy had there been no lockdown ? ...any one knows ?

Let's say it ends up same as flu ie around 2500 to 3000 (since the elderly population has grown considerably in the last 18 years) since this magnitude is acceptable for flu it should also be acceptable for covid-19.

However because covid-19 mortality rates seem to be very low in asia the number could be a lot lower.
 
Let's say it ends up same as flu ie around 2500 to 3000 (since the elderly population has grown considerably in the last 18 years) since this magnitude is acceptable for flu it should also be acceptable for covid-19.

However because covid-19 mortality rates seem to be very low in asia the number could be a lot lower.
yours a scenario only mah ?
 
yours a scenario only mah ?

I'm just looking at the data 17 deaths from 17,000 confirmed cases.

If we ignore the fact that majority are elderly and with comorbidities and just use direct proportion:

That would be 170 deaths from 170,000

1,700 deaths from 1,700,000

3,400 deaths from 3,400,000.

So if almost everyone catches Covid-19 there will be 3,400 deaths which puts it in the same ballpark as a bad flu year in Singapore.
 
i wont exactly say that pal,

how many would have died or how serious this thingy would have affected the economy had there been no lockdown ? ...any one knows ?

Initial lockdown yes. Definitely necessary as data wasn't available then.

But data is coming out now. Sam has crunched the numbers, it looks sound to me.
 
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