154th: Good time to buy condos NOW!

[makapaaa]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published January 9, 2009

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Bargain hunting starts in tepid property market
Four recent sub-sales have been transacted at 20% below launch prices

By ARTHUR SIM
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THE hunting season seems have begun in the property market, with at least four buyers making a killing.

A UBS report says that according to URA data, four recent sub-sales have been transacted at 20 per cent below launch prices.
Two units at Ardmore II were sub-sold for $2,000 per sq ft, compared with the last-transacted price of $2,400 psf. One unit at Scotts Square was sold at $3,050 psf, compared with the last-transacted price of $3,850 psf in the second quarter of last year.
And one unit at Sky @ Eleven was sold at $880 psf, compared with the last transacted price of $1,270 psf in Q2 2007.
'Prior to this, we believe there has not been a single sub-sale transaction more than 11 per cent below the new sale price for the same unit,' said UBS analyst Regina Lim.
UBS believes that the sharply lower sub-sale prices signal a major change in buyers' risk appetite and the outlook for Singapore residential property.
It noted that some projects sold in 2006 and expected to be completed by Q4 this year could be the subject of defaults by buyers if sub-sale prices fall 30 per cent below launch prices.
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>'This is especially as 40 per cent of buyers of new apartments above $1.5 million were foreigners or companies in 2006 and 2007, and it may be difficult not to repudiate the sale-and-purchase agreements for these buyers if they default,' UBS said.
Cushman and Wakefield managing director Donald Han said that he does not expect many sub-sales to be transacted at big losses because developments that will receive their temporary occupation permit (TOP) this year - and hence, requiring loan draw-downs - are likely to have been launched in 2006 before prices peaked.
But he added: 'People that bought in 2007 and 2008 will want to get out of the market.'
Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak said that 'not all sub-sales lose money'. Some recent sub-sales showed price increases, he noted.
Still, prime properties are likely see the biggest drop in prices, as these rose the most in the past few years, he said.
In its report, UBS says that prices in the primary market have also been cut.
Among new launches, the 104-unit Newton Edge, priced at $1,201 psf, is some 23 per cent cheaper than Viva, where 15 units were sold in Q3 last year for around $1,550 psf. And at RV Suites in River Valley Road, 19 units have been sold at $1,350 psf, which is 15 per cent below Wharf Residences at $1,600 psf and 38 per cent below Martin 38.
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[newyorker88]

No wonder the 154th is called the 154th.

Recession has just sunk in and prices are not rock bottom yet, ask people go and buy.

Maybe that is the reason why PAP lost so much $$$ elsewhere, becos they talk crap and do crappy things, expect others to follow them into shit.

 

[pia]

No wonder the 154th is called the 154th.

Recession has just sunk in and prices are not rock bottom yet, ask people go and buy.

Maybe that is the reason why PAP lost so much $$$ elsewhere, becos they talk crap and do crappy things, expect others to follow them into shit.

Their biggest problem is after day in day out spewing the same crap, they start to believe it themselves.

 

[VIBGYOR]

Dun sabo lah, we haven't reach the bottom yet!!

WAIT!

 

[etherc]

Mouth of Sauron, ewwwwwwwwww. Chao Chao....

 

[congo9]

All these propoerty still need to belower from 50 to 40 % from the peak , then i think there are buyers.

I am not saying ST is lieing , but it probably half truth !

 

[allanlee]

Listen to them you'll die faster !! The property market has not reach bottom yet....... and still have a singkie version of the subprime crisis akan datang !!! Want to buy is better to wait till 2nd half of 2009........ for the price of a condo now you can pick up a piece of decent landed property come 4Q 2009..... many properties are gonna kenna leong lelong forced sales

 

[VIBGYOR]

No wonder the 154th is called the 154th.

Recession has just sunk in and prices are not rock bottom yet, ask people go and buy.

Maybe that is the reason why PAP lost so much $$$ elsewhere, becos they talk crap and do crappy things, expect others to follow them into shit.

you are not updated, it should be 141th.

 

[metalslug]

Who cares? we state the media at the lowest position from recent years...

you are not updated, it should be 141th.

 

[R4g3]

if i buy now, then price drop, can i sue 154th?

cannot right? so 154th is 154th, publish without responsibility.

 

[VIBGYOR]

Who cares? we state the media at the lowest position from recent years...

is very important we could judge yearly if they have improved or not!

 

[ahleebabasingaporethief]

All these propoerty still need to belower from 50 to 40 % from the peak , then i think there are buyers.

I am not saying ST is lieing , but it probably half truth !

Telling lies means telling lies. You scared for fuck? They are liars. Mr. Golden Years has been exposed time and time again recently to be a liar.

Used to look up to him in the 70s and 80s...now resort to lieing. WTF? A great man no more.

Where can buy properties now or in the next 2-3 years? CCB Leeporters. Tell tehm to buy themselves lah and put their monies where their CBs are.

Always trying to "hai si " people.

There will be bankruptcies of many Property Developers in Singapore soon. Watch for it.

 

[JadedBeach]

wow, seems like a desparate attempt to encourage buying.

sigh....would advise AGAINST property purchase until mid 2010. you'd witness the real singapore sale then.

privately held property values in singapore will continue to fall through 2010. personally, would estimate property prices to fall by ~30%. central private properties (especially town area) may fall by more since most of them have been artificially inflated during boom time.

in the coming months, pressure to sell will mount as property owners face higher credit spreads, tougher underwriting standards and lower loan-to-value ratios. And *rational* buyers will continue to sit on the sidelines waiting for valuations to tumble.

i do not expect to see any near-term catalyst for real estate values until confidence has been restored and there is a substantial contraction of 'fear premium' for financial assets.

if you really wish to optimize your investments, it would be a much safer bet to lay your money on real estate securities. we are now in a market environment characterized by low interest rates due to continued flight-to-quality, threat of inflation, and higher premiums for liquidity, transparency, and diversification. hence, many big boys are now looking to access pockets of longer-term growth opportunities in Asia and EM via increased allocations of fresh / existing capital to e.g. public REITS.


juz beach

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published January 9, 2009

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Bargain hunting starts in tepid property market
Four recent sub-sales have been transacted at 20% below launch prices

By ARTHUR SIM
<TABLE class=storyLinks cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=1 width=136 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20> </TD><TD>Email this article</TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20> </TD><TD>Print article </TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20> </TD><TD>Feedback</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
THE hunting season seems have begun in the property market, with at least four buyers making a killing.

A UBS report says that according to URA data, four recent sub-sales have been transacted at 20 per cent below launch prices.
Two units at Ardmore II were sub-sold for $2,000 per sq ft, compared with the last-transacted price of $2,400 psf. One unit at Scotts Square was sold at $3,050 psf, compared with the last-transacted price of $3,850 psf in the second quarter of last year.
And one unit at Sky @ Eleven was sold at $880 psf, compared with the last transacted price of $1,270 psf in Q2 2007.
'Prior to this, we believe there has not been a single sub-sale transaction more than 11 per cent below the new sale price for the same unit,' said UBS analyst Regina Lim.
UBS believes that the sharply lower sub-sale prices signal a major change in buyers' risk appetite and the outlook for Singapore residential property.
It noted that some projects sold in 2006 and expected to be completed by Q4 this year could be the subject of defaults by buyers if sub-sale prices fall 30 per cent below launch prices.
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>'This is especially as 40 per cent of buyers of new apartments above $1.5 million were foreigners or companies in 2006 and 2007, and it may be difficult not to repudiate the sale-and-purchase agreements for these buyers if they default,' UBS said.
Cushman and Wakefield managing director Donald Han said that he does not expect many sub-sales to be transacted at big losses because developments that will receive their temporary occupation permit (TOP) this year - and hence, requiring loan draw-downs - are likely to have been launched in 2006 before prices peaked.
But he added: 'People that bought in 2007 and 2008 will want to get out of the market.'
Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak said that 'not all sub-sales lose money'. Some recent sub-sales showed price increases, he noted.
Still, prime properties are likely see the biggest drop in prices, as these rose the most in the past few years, he said.
In its report, UBS says that prices in the primary market have also been cut.
Among new launches, the 104-unit Newton Edge, priced at $1,201 psf, is some 23 per cent cheaper than Viva, where 15 units were sold in Q3 last year for around $1,550 psf. And at RV Suites in River Valley Road, 19 units have been sold at $1,350 psf, which is 15 per cent below Wharf Residences at $1,600 psf and 38 per cent below Martin 38.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[downgrader]

the earliest to go back is when price index touches 1997 level

remember this is worst recession since 1930s, won't rebound so fast

buyers can take their own sweet time, sellers will have to cut loss once they fall behind mortgage payments and in this climate, many will

 

[JadedBeach]

the recession will play out for the next one year and things may only start to get back on track end 2009 / early 2010.

although this is the worst recession since 1930s, let's not forget corporate fundamentals have improved dramatically.

i still see light at the end of the tunnel albeit some way to go.

the earliest to go back is when price index touches 1997 level

remember this is worst recession since 1930s, won't rebound so fast

buyers can take their own sweet time, sellers will have to cut loss once they fall behind mortgage payments and in this climate, many will

 

[downgrader]

the recession will play out for the next one year and things may only start to get back on track end 2009 / early 2010.

although this is the worst recession since 1930s, let's not forget corporate fundamentals have improved dramatically.

i still see light at the end of the tunnel albeit some way to go.

corporate fundamentals such as ..plse elaborate

Q4 earnings will be shit, even dbs and mediacorp, the government linked giants are putting in sevre measures, what about the others and SMEs

this recession is big, property market is one way down, at thevery least until 1997 index

 

[angie II]

remember this is worst recession since 1930s, won't rebound so fast

LKY's grandfather, Lee Hoon Leong, rose to riches but saw his fortunes decline with the Great Depression in the 1930s.


​

 

[angie II]

LKY's root can be traced to his great-grandfather Lee Bok Boon, who left Guangdong, China, at 16 to eke out a living in Singapore.


​

 

[angie II]

"Oh dear... i dread to think my turn to join them is coming soon"
​

 

[JadedBeach]

*pouts* well, i was merely giving as much details as your blanket statements deserved. but let me apologize for sweeping through.

elaborate? well erm well erm...

let's take a step back - in 1930s, asian markets were basically undeveloped. logically, you cannot neglect improved corporate fundamentals since the 1930s (up until the 1970s) hence, a more suitable benchmark would be to compare asian fundamentals to those in the asian crisis.

in a way, the asian financial crisis contained several blessings in disguise. for one, since 1997, asia has built-up ample forex reserves (~$4 trillion). asian banks have been relatively risk adverse. in asia, with the exception of singapore and hong kong, most banks have had negligible exposure to us subprime mortgages/cdo. in the asean bloc, corporate balance sheets and leverage remain relatively healthy with net gearing of less than 0.5x for 2008.

so now, let's take a quick look at singapore. in my previous posts, there is no doubt that singapore will be plunged further into recession. singapore's a very small and very open economy. therefore, it is highly correlated hence, sensitive to global economic growth. in fact, singapore (and hong kong) will face one of the sharpest economic decline in asia.

but let's not forget that singapore will be slightly buoyed by strong fiscal position and low political risk. singapore has ~$170 billion in reserves and a surplus current account. besides, the mas has accepted $30 billion of swap lines from the fed. these factors will add to maintain confidence in the currency (although i still think aud will be a better currency to buy) and hence, the economy. it will be interesting to see how the next few months unfold.

to sum it all up - in medium to long term - the broad market is stronger than it was in 1997-98. household balance sheets are better and in for financial institutions, non performing loans are significantly lower and strengthened by increased sophistication in risk management techniques since asian financial crisis. corporates have also deleveraged since.

well, it's now a good time to buy TOTO though hahaaa


juz beach

corporate fundamentals such as ..plse elaborate

Q4 earnings will be shit, even dbs and mediacorp, the government linked giants are putting in sevre measures, what about the others and SMEs

this recession is big, property market is one way down, at thevery least until 1997 index