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孟加里八百里急报：米国好象已终Huat Big Big 了
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U.S heading for a recession? Here are all the key indicators that point towards it
Agencies
Synopsis
Despite a 2.5% U.S. GDP growth, concerns about global economic impacts from China's slowdown have been rising for weeks.
By The Feed
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Last Updated: Aug 04, 2024, 10:28:00 AM IST
Is the world's largest economy heading for a recession? Or is the economy simply hitting a rough spot? Recent economic indicators in the United States seem to point towards that direction with many analysts saying the economy could be in a recession early next year.
Recession concerns are capturing attention as market participants speculate on the Federal Reserve's potential actions with an increase in public communications expected next week. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, raising alarms about a weakening labor market and the economy's susceptibility to recession
For a year, the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year peak of 5.25%-5.50%. Some analysts worry that this prolonged tight monetary policy might be pushing the economy toward a recession. The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, which breached the 0.50 threshold, has historically signaled the early stages of a recession in the U.S. economy. While significant data is expected before the September 18th meeting, an acceleration in employment trends in August could strengthen the case for a 50 basis point cut. However, at present, the consensus leans towards a 25 basis point reduction.
Bloomberg rates strategist Simon White notes, "The market may be prematurely anticipating a recession that is unlikely to occur before next year at the earliest."
He adds that while the Sahm Rule's trigger heightens recession worries, it often lags and misses many equity downturns, making it neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for a recession.
Today's unemployment rise was primarily due to an increase in the participation rate.
He adds that while the Sahm Rule's trigger heightens recession worries, it often lags and misses many equity downturns, making it neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for a recession.
Today's unemployment rise was primarily due to an increase in the participation rate.
Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, expressed concerns, saying, "The Fed is on the verge of turning a win into a loss.
Economic momentum has slowed to the point where a rate cut in September might be insufficient. They may need to implement a more substantial reduction than the typical quarter percentage point cut to prevent a recession."
Economic momentum has slowed to the point where a rate cut in September might be insufficient. They may need to implement a more substantial reduction than the typical quarter percentage point cut to prevent a recession."
What is a recession?
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity across the economy, lasting for an extended period, typically visible in GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. It is often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.Recessions can result from various factors, including reduced consumer and business spending, high unemployment, and financial crises. During a recession, businesses may cut back on production and investments, leading to job losses and decreased consumer confidence.
Governments and central banks often respond with monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stimulating the economy and mitigating the downturn's effects.
Without Bidens huge stimulus, US was on recession years ago.
It's currently a artificial economy held together with huge borrowings.
It's currently a artificial economy held together with huge borrowings.
Dollar Path Divides Goldman, Fidelity Over Emerging-Market Bonds
- US elections are likely to hurt local-currency bonds: Goldman
- Fidelity says ‘stars are aligning’ for EM rates, FX to rally
By Marcus Wong
August 4, 2024 at 8:30 PM GMT+8
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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says emerging-market investors should favor dollar-denominated bonds over local-currency ones. Fidelity International says the opposite.
Goldman argues that dollar debt will outperform as potential US election volatility bolsters the greenback and leads to policy changes that could hurt developing-nation assets.
Fidelity says local-currency assets will perform better as the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates.
They print USD at God Forbidden Speed Digital Speed....now even BBFA believe NTUC toilet papet is better than USD
UK Police Make at Least 100 Arrests Over Public Disorder
- Rioters have clashed with police, damaged public property
- Violence presents challenge to month-old Labour government
Police officers face off with protesters in Bristol, on Aug. 3Photographer: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images
By Lucca De Paoli
August 4, 2024 at 5:36 PM GMT+8
Updated on
August 4, 2024 at 7:29 PM GMT+8
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At least 100 people have been arrested after far-right protests descended into rioting this weekend in England and Northern Ireland, with police warning that the violence may not be over.
Disturbances have broken out in towns and cities including Blackpool, Belfast and Bristol since Friday night, with a number of police officers attacked and injured. The riots represent one of the biggest challenges facing the month-old Labour government, as it struggles to rein in the unrest.
Markets Now Fear the Fed’s Waiting Game Is Too Long
What a difference a day makes. After rising on expectations of a September rate cut, stocks sell off after a slew of data points to recession.August 2, 2024 at 12:53 PM GMT+8
By John Authers
John Authers is a senior editor for markets and Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former chief markets commentator at the Financial Times, he is author of “The Fearful Rise of Markets.”
One day at a time for the Fed and markets.
Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
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Data-dependency can be painful. Wednesday finished on a high for the US stock market as investors reacted to strong hints from the Federal Reserve that it would be cutting rates in September. Thursday, however, saw a selloff as some downbeat economic data immediately prompted fears that the Fed had made a mistake and should already have cut.
If the Fed is wrong, note that the market’s behavior this week suggests that plenty of others would have made the same mistake. One big data point against the FOMC: the latest jobless claims numbers. Taken in conjunction with the figures on continuing claims, which come out every two weeks, they’re now on a clear rising trend, and their highest since late
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