Chitchat [US election] Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado

Florida: 29 electoral votes
Ohio: 18 electoral votes
North Carolina: 15 electoral votes
Arizona: 11 electoral votes
Colorado: 9 electoral votes

These are the battleground states which have the closest margins and which carry the most number of electoral votes.

Trump needs ALL of them to win the election. He also needs to win in all other states in which he has a lead.

Clinton only needs ONE of the above states of win the election, provided she wins all other states in which she has a lead of 4 percentage points or higher.

Donald Trump took the lead over Hillary Clinton in a poll published Tuesday as the Democratic presidential nominee's campaign worked to recover from last week's surprise FBI announcement.

An ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll put Trump about 1 point ahead of Clinton. It was the first time since May that he edged out the former secretary of state in an ABC/Washington Post poll.

In a four-way race that included Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump had 46% support and Clinton has 45%.

Trump's 0.7-point lead was, however, within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

The poll was conducted from October 27-30. FBI Director James Comey announced on Friday, October 28, that the FBI had reopened its investigation into Clinton's private email server.

Comey told Congress that the FBI had found new documents "pertinent" to the Clinton email investigation. The FBI had closed the investigation in July.

Clinton's campaign blasted Comey for his decision to break with protocol by announcing the investigation just days before the election. The FBI typically does not comment on ongoing investigations.

The FBI's announcement seemed to have had an effect on the polls. Enthusiasm for Clinton lessened Friday through Sunday, according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll. Enthusiasm for Trump held steady.

Clinton has largely been ahead of Trump in the polls for months, aside from temporary bumps the Trump campaign has seen. But just one week before the election, the race seems too close to call — in polls conducted after the FBI announcement, Clinton's lead narrowed.

If Trump wins all the states (206 electoral votes) that the Republican candidate (Mitt Romney) won four years ago:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Results



then he only needs to win the states where Romney lost by the four narrowest margins:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Close races

Florida - 29 electoral votes:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida, 2012

Ohio - 18 electoral votes:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Ohio, 2012

Virginia - 13 electoral votes:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Virginia, 2012

Colorado - 9 electoral votes:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Colorado, 2012

206 + 29 + 18 +13 + 9 = 275
(Trump needs 270 to win, out of 538 electoral votes)

Thick Face Black Heart said:

Clinton has largely been ahead of Trump in the polls for months, aside from temporary bumps the Trump campaign has seen.

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Polls, especially polls for U.S. elections, should never be trusted, right?
Simply because the sample sizes are too small, and voter turnout in the past eleven U.S. Presidential Elections have consistently remained below 60%:
presidency.ucsb.edu/data/turnout.php
which means that at least 40% of eligible voters (especially those from the "swing states") consistently seldom bother to vote at any election, unlike last year's:
wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_2015#Results_summary
in which well over 90% of eligible Sinkie voters bothered to vote.

No. It all goes down to Pennsylvania.

At least the Americans have a choice.

We don't.

Our opposition has been destroyed since they made it harder and harder to stand for elections. The only hope for a Choice is when the PAP splits - but this is unlikely in the near future.

mojito said:

No. It all goes down to Pennsylvania.

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philadelphia transit workers on strike. fat, lazy, procrastinating democrats will have a difficult time making their way to voting stations.

mojito said:

No. It all goes down to Pennsylvania.

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Yes, Pennsylvania happens to be the state where Romney lost by the fifth narrowest margin four years ago:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United States presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2012
and its 20 electoral votes can replace Virginia's and Colorado's combined 22 electoral votes, and Trump can still win with a total of 273 electoral votes, instead of the 275 I mentioned earlier:

flatearther said:

If Trump wins all the states (206 electoral votes) that the Republican candidate (Mitt Romney) won four years ago:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Results
then he only needs to win the states where Romney lost by the four narrowest margins:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Close races

Florida - 29 electoral votes:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida, 2012

Ohio - 18 electoral votes:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Ohio, 2012

Virginia - 13 electoral votes:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Virginia, 2012

Colorado - 9 electoral votes:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Colorado, 2012

206 + 29 + 18 +13 + 9 = 275
(Trump needs 270 to win, out of 538 electoral votes)

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flatearther said:

Polls, especially polls for U.S. elections, should never be trusted, right?
Simply because the sample sizes are too small, and voter turnout in the past eleven U.S. Presidential Elections have consistently remained below 60%:
presidency.ucsb.edu/data/turnout.php
which means that at least 40% of eligible voters (especially those from the "swing states") consistently seldom bother to vote at any election, unlike last year's:
wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_2015#Results_summary
in which well over 90% of eligible Sinkie voters bothered to vote.

Click to expand...

Trump will have that slight advantage if poll shows it a near 50-50 contest since republican voters will likely turnout to vote as compare to Democrat voters. The party that can achieve a higher turnout rate amongst their likely supporters will likely win.

I am neutral to both Clinton and Trump, both have their pros and cons.

Having said that, I noticed most Trump supporters have very unrealistic expectations of their candidate despite all the respected pollsters predicting his chances of winning are from none to meager. Even the excellent track record 538 model by respected statistician Nate Silver gives him at most 30+% and he is one of those who give Trump the biggest benefit of doubt.

All I hear are unsubstantiated wishful thinking like:

1) Pollsters are just faking it to support Clinton
2) Pollsters methodolgy is bias and support Clinton
3) Trump has the silent majority lurking and voting for him last minute
4) Trump supporters are highly enthusiastic and will surge to voting booths last minute
5) Trump has the momentum
6) Clinton supporters are demoralized and will stay home

The reality is despite all the hubris, Clinton has been leading nationally throughout the entire campaign. Clinton has many possible electoral paths while Trump basically needs all the stars to align on that one single shot.

It is important to look at the facts objectively and assess his chances realistically even if you support Trump. No point coming up with a laundry list of "maybes" just to arrive at a conclusion you like. In 2012 each and every single one of the above points was raised for Romney and Obama as well. The end result was that Romney lost by an even larger margin than predicted by pollsters.

Clinton will win. Those who support Trump will have to chop! And Trump will go to jail for years for fraud, sexual harassment, lying and hate speech.

maxsanic said:

...all the respected pollsters predicting his chances of winning are from none to meager. Even the excellent track record 538 model by respected statistician Nate Silver gives him at most 30+% and he is one of those who give Trump the biggest benefit of doubt.

All I hear are unsubstantiated wishful thinking like:

1) Pollsters are just faking it to support Clinton
2) Pollsters methodolgy is bias and support Clinton

...Clinton has been leading nationally throughout the entire campaign.

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But no "excellent track record" is perfect, right?

maxsanic said:

In 2012 each and every single one of the above points was raised for Romney and Obama as well. The end result was that Romney lost by an even larger margin than predicted by pollsters.

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The end result for the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Results
four years ago, was that the Republican candidate won 60,933,504 (47.20%) of the popular vote and 206 electoral votes, while Obama won only 65,915,795 (51.06%) of the popular vote and 332 electoral votes.
Whereas the end result for the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Results
eight years ago, was that the Republican candidate won 59,948,323 (45.65%) of the popular vote and only 173 electoral votes, while Obama won 69,498,516 (52.93%) of the popular vote and 365 electoral votes.

Therefore, the fact is that the Republicans won about a million more popular votes and 33 more electoral votes in 2012, compared to their 2008 results, right?

maxsanic said:

3) Trump has the silent majority lurking and voting for him last minute
4) Trump supporters are highly enthusiastic and will surge to voting booths last minute
5) Trump has the momentum
...

It is important to look at the facts objectively and assess his chances realistically even if you support Trump. No point coming up with a laundry list of "maybes" just to arrive at a conclusion you like.

Click to expand...

So far, the only "facts" you have posted that support Hillary winning (and Trump losing) are the so-called "respected pollsters" and Hillary's so-called "many possible electoral paths", right?

As I've said before in another thread:
sammyboy.com/showthread.php?236823-US-politics-Compilation-of-Hillary-Clinton-lies-and-flip-flops&p=2527854#post2527854

flatearther said:

...the political climate in the USA during the past half-decade has gradually become pro-Republican again, judging by the past three:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2014
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2010
and even the last:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2014
caused the Republicans to regain the majority of the Senate.

So I suspect that two weeks from now, the "swing states" will simply decide that they do not want a Democrat President again, and therefore vote for the Republican candidate, even if they dislike Trump.

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maxsanic said:

I am neutral to both Clinton and Trump, both have their pros and cons.

Having said that, I noticed most Trump supporters have very unrealistic expectations of their candidate despite all the respected pollsters predicting his chances of winning are from none to meager. Even the excellent track record 538 model by respected statistician Nate Silver gives him at most 30+% and he is one of those who give Trump the biggest benefit of doubt.

All I hear are unsubstantiated wishful thinking like:

1) Pollsters are just faking it to support Clinton
2) Pollsters methodolgy is bias and support Clinton
3) Trump has the silent majority lurking and voting for him last minute
4) Trump supporters are highly enthusiastic and will surge to voting booths last minute
5) Trump has the momentum
6) Clinton supporters are demoralized and will stay home

The reality is despite all the hubris, Clinton has been leading nationally throughout the entire campaign. Clinton has many possible electoral paths while Trump basically needs all the stars to align on that one single shot.

It is important to look at the facts objectively and assess his chances realistically even if you support Trump. No point coming up with a laundry list of "maybes" just to arrive at a conclusion you like. In 2012 each and every single one of the above points was raised for Romney and Obama as well. The end result was that Romney lost by an even larger margin than predicted by pollsters.

Click to expand...

Your points 3,4,5 and 6 are correct. Trump voters will turn out bigly and democrats will lack to will to go vote. Or they will vote for the independent candidates and thereby hand the election to Trump.

Thick Face Black Heart said:

Your points 3,4,5 and 6 are correct. Trump voters will turn out bigly and democrats will lack to will to go vote. Or they will vote for the independent candidates and thereby hand the election to Trump.

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And what evidence is there that supports this? It's just a one-sided claim made by Trump supporters and pro-Trump networks like Fox, Inforwars and Washington Post. Also bear in mind the exact same stuff was said for Romney as well, we know how that ended.

maxsanic said:

And what evidence is there that supports this? It's just a one-sided claim made by Trump supporters and pro-Trump networks like Fox, Inforwars and Washington Post. Also bear in mind the exact same stuff was said for Romney as well, we know how that ended.

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I am mentally and psychologically preparing myself for a Trump presidency. Trust me, if on the off chance Clinton wins i will likely be the happiest forummer

Where is winnipegjets? We need a few more liberals and pro choice feminists to weigh in. Its getting awfully lonely in this forum!

JohnTan said:

Clinton will win. Those who support Trump will have to chop! And Trump will go to jail for years for fraud, sexual harassment, lying and hate speech.

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JohnTan said:

Hillary will win. I have already bought more stock from the US markets in anticipation of a mild rally when Hillary wins as expected. Easy money!

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fuck you gongcheebye grassloot JohnTan

maxsanic said:

And what evidence is there that supports this? It's just a one-sided claim made by Trump supporters and pro-Trump networks like Fox, Inforwars and Washington Post. Also bear in mind the exact same stuff was said for Romney as well, we know how that ended.

Click to expand...

Trump has won.

The pollsters were wrong, their numbers were off, the mainstream media did not see it coming, and my statistical analysis was ultimately correct.

Thick Face Black Heart said:

05 November
-------------

Current model predicts TRUMP TO WIN.

***

Best case scenario for Trump is to win 299 electoral votes.
Best case scenario for Clinton is to win 312 electoral votes (highly unlikely).

Most probable scenario is for Trump to win Florida, and take exactly 270 EVs by also taking North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona.

***

Critical swing states:

Florida: 29 EV (predicted winner: Trump)
Pennsylvania: 20 EV (predicted winner: Clinton)
North Carolina: 15 EV (predicted winner: Trump)
Ohio: 18 EV (predicted winner: Trump)
Arizona: 11 EV (predicted winner: Trump)
Colorado: 9 EV (predicted winner: Clinton)

Click to expand...

Thick Face Black Heart said:

I certainly don't wish to see Trump in office and i am not doing this arbitrary either.

For states that has Clinton lead at less than 2%, i assign them to Trump. Simple reason. Dem voters lack the enthusiasm and will have lower turnout. The poll ignores the turnout rate because no poll can take that into account.

In fact it is safe to say that if Rep turnout in record numbers, every news poll out there will be severely underestimating Trump's vote count.

Early voting numbers already confirm Dem's worst fears.

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Thick Face Black Heart said:

Current model predicts trump will won florida and north carolina. That will make him almost certain to win the white house

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Thick Face Black Heart said:

I already placed my bet bro. Heart is with Hillary but money is on Trump.

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Thick Face Black Heart said:

Trump will win Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa.

I don't see any route for Clinton to 270

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