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Flu death toll in Hong Kong could be highest in 15 years expert warns

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Flu death toll in Hong Kong could be highest in 15 years expert warns, as 12 more die


Chinese University microbiologist says current strain is more contagious, but so far is still killing mainly the elderly and chronically ill

PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 11 February, 2015, 12:29am
UPDATED : Wednesday, 11 February, 2015, 9:53am

Emily Tsang [email protected]

flu.jpg


Hongkongers have been hit hard this year. Photo: Edward Wong

A microbiologist has warned that the dominant strain of H3N2 is more infectious than usual and may push up this year's death toll to one of the highest in 15 years. This came as 12 more patients with flu died yesterday.

Announcing the results of a Chinese University study, microbiologist Professor Paul Chan Kay-sheung said the city was now halfway into the flu peak season, which could last six to nine weeks.

The weather would determine the severity of the virus in the coming weeks, he said

"A dry and warm spring would be able to stop the spread of influenza," Chan said. "The virus is more active when the weather is very hot or very cold. Humidity exceeding 70 per cent can also help it spread."

He said the virus could not survive when the temperature ranged between 22 and 27 degrees Celsius, which meant there could be another peak season in the hot months of June and July.

Yesterday's 12 deaths pushed the death toll this year to 157, with 236 requiring intensive care as of Monday.

A total of 10 deaths were recorded last month at the Prince of Wales Hospital, which is Chinese University's teaching facility in Sha Tin.

Chan said all 10 deaths involved elderly or chronically ill patients. He said this compared with two deaths at the hospital in the same month last year.

According to data from the Hospital Authority, 2012 had the highest number of deaths, with 222 flu sufferers dying. Twenty-six deaths took place at the Prince of Wales Hospital in that year.

Chinese University data for the past 15 years showed that 1.8 out of 1,000 patients at the Sha Tin hospital had flu. But this figure rose to 3.8 last month.

The annual death rate averaged 1.19 among 10,000 patients. But the figure rose to 1.25 patients with flu last month.

"It seems the total number of deaths this year could be one of the highest in 15 years," he said.

"The severity caused by the virus has not changed compared to previous years, but it is stronger in the sense that it is more contagious and making more people sick."

Meanwhile, World Health Organisation Director General Margaret Chan Fung Fu-chun told Health Secretary Ko Wing-man at an event in Singapore that halting the supply of live chickens would lower the risk of bird flu being spread to humans, according to a government source.

She was addressing Ko's concern that H3N2 could mix with H7N9 bird flu and turn into a new, more contagious virus.

A spokesman for the bureau said Ko had commissioned a study on the feasibility of banning live poultry here.


 
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