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Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai leow!

Rogue Trader

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Why Singapore’s economy looks set for a contraction
Published: Tuesday, 1 Oct 2013 | 12:50 AM ET
By: Dhara Ranasinghe | Senior Writer

100954928-singapore.240x160.jpg


If recent weaker-than-expected economic data from Singapore is anything to go by, the city-state is heading for a quarterly growth contraction, economists say.

A negative quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the third quarter should not be a surprise given an unusually firm annualized quarter-on-quarter rise of 15.5 percent in the second quarter, but the scale of the contraction is something to watch for, they add. The latest GDP data is expected later this month.

CIMB Regional Economist Seng Wun Song forecasts that Singapore's economy probably contracted 2-3 percent on a seasonally adjusted, quarter-on-quarter annualized basis in the third quarter. Hak Bin Chua, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoAML), is looking for a 4-5 percent contraction.

"It is a case of two steps forward, one step back for Singapore's economy," said CIMB's Song. "It's not that we are heading back down the hill, but the recovery is fragile."

And that's something the latest economic numbers highlight: data last week showed industrial production rose 3.5 percent on year in August, missing market expectations for a 4.9 percent rise.

On a monthly basis, output has declined for three months in a row, falling 1.4 percent in August.

Non-oil domestic exports, one of Singapore's most closely-watched economic indicators, fell 6.2 percent in August from a year earlier – an unexpected decline.

"The quarterly number for Q3 GDP is likely to be negative because the surge was so strong in the second quarter and also because recent data has been weaker-than-expected," said Chua at BoAML. "The year-on-year number should still be positive and the bigger picture is that the services sector continues to be a driver of growth."

Analysts at OCBC Bank said in a note on Tuesday that they tipped third quarter GDP growth at 2.3 percent on-year, with a 9.4 percent contraction on-quarter, in seasonally adjusted annualized basis.

Singapore, home to one of Asia's biggest financial centers, is export-dependent, which makes it vulnerable to what's happening in the global economy, analysts said.

"There is growth in the Singapore economy, it's just not in the straight line we'd hoped for and that's partly due to worries about the impact of Fed tapering, the strength of the rebound in China and the impact of currency weakness in neighboring Asian countries," said Song.

Worries about an unwinding of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus program have unsettled global markets in recent months and hurt emerging market currencies such as the Indonesian rupiah as markets brace for a tightening of liquidity conditions.



—By CNBC.Com'sDhara Ranasinghe; Follow her on Twitter<iframe id="twitter-widget-0" class="twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" title="Embedded Tweet" style="width: 1px; height: 1px; border-style: none; position: absolute;"></iframe>


 

TuaCheeBye

Alfrescian
Loyal
Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

If we all have to live our lifes based on data, life will be a torture!

Finance players in this world are using this statistics to measure shit! :oIo:
 

Rogue Trader

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Asset
Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

Singapore economy "may contract in third quarter"
By Wong Siew Ying
POSTED: 17 Sep 2013 18:36


SINGAPORE: Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) contracted unexpectedly in August, falling 6.2 per cent on-year following a 1.9 per cent drop in July.

August's fall is the seventh straight month of decline, according to figures from trade agency International Enterprise Singapore (IE Singapore).

The pullback in trade performance surprised some economists who had expected a 2.4 per cent on-year increase in August NODX.

Compared to July, NODX declined by 6.0 per cent in August, following the previous month's 1.8 per cent contraction.

From January to August, NODX fell 7.7 per cent on-year, and some economists say Singapore could miss its official forecast of a 0 to 1 per cent growth this year.


Singapore's economy may even see a contraction in the third quarter, following a strong 15.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter.


DBS Bank senior economist, Irvin Seah, said: "If we do get a contraction in August industrial production number, I think it is almost a given that we will get a contraction in GDP growth for the third quarter.

"Over the last one month or so, we have seen problems emerging in two of our key neighbouring trading partners, essentially Malaysia and Indonesia.

"These two countries account for quite a big chunk of our exports. With the problems in these two countries, the depreciation of their currencies, it will certainly affect our non-oil domestic exports performance and indirectly our GDP growth."


IE Singapore said exports to all of the 10 major markets, except China and Hong Kong, decreased in August.


The top three contributors to the export contraction were the European Union, South Korea and Taiwan.


Shipments of both electronics and non-electronics products were all lower in August.


Exports of electronics goods fell 9.2 per cent on-year in August, after posting an 11.1 per cent drop in the previous month.

The more volatile segments like pharmaceuticals and structures of ships and boats also saw sharp declines in August.

Year-on-year, pharmaceuticals exports slipped 31.1 per cent, structures of ships & boats plunged 95.8 per cent and aromatic chemicals NODX fell 54.4 per cent during the month.

But non-oil re-exports rose 14.4 per cent on-year last month.

UOB economist Francis Tan said: "Non-oil re-export has been rising on a year to date basis, 6.9 per cent compared to the same period a year ago. That goes to show that even though domestic exports have been weak for the first few months of this year, Singapore's status as a transhipment hub, as a logistics hub, as a trading hub, is still in place because a lot of re-export is going through Singapore, and that also goes to show that in Asia, in terms of trade volume, things are actually on the rise."

Some economists say that the poor trade performance in August suggests that global growth outlook may not be as rosy as expected, and perhaps market expectation has gone ahead of fundamentals.

Apart from uncertainties in the emerging markets, some economists say growth in the US and Europe is also far from being firm, with unemployment still high in the developed economies.


The government expects the Singapore economy to grow by between 2.5 and 3.5 per cent this year.



- CNA/ir
 

HighwayStar

Alfrescian
Loyal
Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

I am fat so tightening my belt will make breathing difficult.
 

Rogue Trader

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Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

hee hee hee....
ay daddy ... now how ah?

images



.......
lky03.JPG
 

laksaboy

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Asset
Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

Alright! It's about time this artificially propped up bubble economy gets burst. :cool:

Printing lots of money and keeping interest rates low can only do so much for your shitty economy. :wink:
 

winnipegjets

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Asset
Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

Wah lau eh ...we have the most expensive government in the world and this is the kind of result they deliver?????

Everywhere economies are sliding along ...not negative, just small growth but ours is negative. Please explain why is ours negative????
 

The_Hypocrite

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Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

In order to keep the economy going
They can just push the popn up to 10 million next year tha the economic can just get kicked down the road. Those who r cash rich will b glad as they can buy cheaper property.
Alright! It's about time this artificially propped up bubble economy gets burst. :cool:

Printing lots of money and keeping interest rates low can only do so much for your shitty economy. :wink:
 

Annunaki

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Loyal
Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

From the number of new Mercedes, volvo, bmws, audis on the road, I cannot tell recession is coming.
 

Rogue Trader

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Asset
Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

From the number of new Mercedes, volvo, bmws, audis on the road, I cannot tell recession is coming.

That's the consequence of cheap money fuelling consumption.

What is sinkapore economy's real export and competitive advantage?
 

SuayCheeBye

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Loyal
Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

Screwing the economy by using cheap Foreign labour has its consequences.
 

Rogue Trader

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Asset
Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

Wah lau eh ...we have the most expensive government in the world and this is the kind of result they deliver?????

Everywhere economies are sliding along ...not negative, just small growth but ours is negative. Please explain why is ours negative????

That's why I damn envy our Mah bow tan.... after making a pile and creating a time bomb, just retire and enjoy life... like one of those Lehman brother fund managers.
 

amazedbyyou

Alfrescian
Loyal
Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

Sgp need a (long-waited) correction, like the stock market.
Need to flush out all the undesirables n fakes.
 

Rogue Trader

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

Clean drinking water.

Hyflux and Creative were the only 2 real innovators who could export their homegrown technologies.

The other MNCs we have are GLCs like keppel, sembcorp, singtel, capitaland... gives you an idea how desperate our economy has become.
 

The_Hypocrite

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Asset
Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

One thing i learnt is its better to b in a low interest rate economy than a high one if u have housing loan. I believe 90% of Singaporens have a loan. High interest rates cause high repayments tat hits the back pocket. No difference to paying more tax. If the economy slows down even more tat means interest rates wont b raised.

That's the consequence of cheap money fuelling consumption.

What is sinkapore economy's real export and competitive advantage?
 

johnny333

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Asset
Re: Sinkies, tighten your belts and prepare to take bitter medicine! Recession lai le

There's so much construction going on in Spore & yet the economy is in trouble. Must really be bad for people out there.
 
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