Hougang By-Election Playbook

scroobal · Feb 15, 2012

Couple of things to get out of the way.

The Govt can drag its feet as they have done in the past in calling for a by-election as both the Consitution and the Parliamentary Elections Act is silent on this. Secondly, if it is called, it will be the usual ligthing speed of 9 days. With the above in mind, couple of scenarios are likely.

Before going into these scenarios, I would suggest that a landmark 70% vote to WP is possible if the right strategy is in play.

The PAP has vast resources at its disposal but do bear in mind that it did not help Tony Tan and he limped home with votes slightly over 30%. So it not just resources but how well they are prepared to treat Singaporeans.

If it indeed garners 70% and above, its sets the tone on many fronts for the Singapore in terms of expectations. It may also open the doors to competent and capable individuals who in the past had negative connotation of politics. The pool then become wider for those keen on opposition politics. It can only mean good things for Singapore.

kingrant · Feb 15, 2012

I am also predicting an overwhelming win for WP. This is when voters can vote in peace due to the by-election effect. I asked elsewhere, and I'll ask here again - Can WP pull Gerald or Yee out from NCMP and field either in HG? In that case, their replacement can go to Lina? Not sure if she was the third best loser.

scroobal · Feb 15, 2012

Yes, then can. Its an option but I would suggest that a bird in hand is worth 2 in a bush. Yee is too valuable and Joo Chiat voters might not like it. I am sure that WP leadership have already identified their choice.

kingrant said:
I am also predicting an overwhelming win for WP. This is when voters can vote in peace due to the by-election effect. I asked elsewhere, and I'll ask here again - Can WP pull Gerald or Yee out from NCMP and field either in HG? In that case, their replacement can go to Lina? Not sure if she was the third best loser.

wikiphile · Feb 15, 2012

i believe the candidate in waiting is either Png Eng Huat or John Yam

kingrant · Feb 15, 2012

See yr point. I also noted that you are thinking Png. That's also a good strategy to expose as many faces as possible, after Giam, Yee..

If LTK adopts the correct shrewd strategy, he can grow his Opposition team as he has planned as well as beat a path for others by what he chooses to do in HG.

I also dont think other parties will come in to spoil the party. That would make Singaporeans unhappy and will be a lose-lose for all except PAP ( who may send in clowns as spoilers ).

scroobal said:
Yes, then can. Its an option but I would suggest that a bird in hand is worth 2 in a bush. Yee is too valuable and Joo Chiat voters might not like it. I am sure that WP leadership have already identified their choice.

Char_Azn · Feb 15, 2012

Think 70% is too much to ask for.

1)Yaw have been working in Hougang for some time. The new guy coming in, does he have that long a history in Hougang?

2)There is also the LTK effect, when LTK left Hougang, some of those in Hougang saw themselves as the last bastion for opposition and it cannot fall hence they voted for the opposition. Aljunied was the same, a number of pple I've met have express the same during the last GE, they were afraid that Hougang might fall and they thought themselves responsible for ensuring the continuing presence of opposition members in Parliament. Now that LTK have secured Aljunied, some of those votes might be gone. Those are critical coz those demographics are basically the middle ground

3)WP major screw up during the ministerial debate

4)They did score some points by sacking Yaw but the fact that it had to drag this long basically only ensures they win back the opposition vote rather then the middle ground. They should have been more decisive and do it within the first 2 weeks.

5)PAP making various policies in recognition of the problems in the last GE.

I have no doubts in a straight up fight the PAP will lose, but WP will do very well to get the same number of votes as the last GE. 70% is too much to ask IMO

kingrant · Feb 15, 2012

It will be more of a visceral and emotional reaction as a morale booster and "reward" for LTK and his leadership courage etc.

Char_Azn said:
Think 70% is too much to ask for.

brocoli · Feb 15, 2012

Char_Azn said:
1)Yaw have been working in Hougang for some time. The new guy coming in, does he have that long a history in Hougang?

kingrant said:
See yr point. I also noted that you are thinking Png. That's also a good strategy to expose as many faces as possible, after Giam, Yee..

beside swee bee and yaw, who has the longest history in hougang...??? there are 2 of them...

one is a student and one is an instructor....

and no I am not talking about ah huat or choon yong....

hougang ground will know... but all this ah peks... will they know... ? ow will they eat shit again ???

I just eat shit so I am not goin to predict liao...

kingrant · Feb 15, 2012

Length of service is but only one factor, bro. what you need is not only a worker, but also a fighter. can they fight and become a good MP where verbal skills are required?

brocoli said:
beside swee bee and yaw, who has the longest history in hougang...??? there are 2 of them...

one is a student and one is an instructor....

and no I am not talking about ah huat or choon yong....

hougang ground will know... but all this ah peks... will they know... ? ow will they eat shit again ???

I just eat shit so I am not goin to predict liao...

Goh Meng Seng · Feb 15, 2012

I agree with your observations.

The Yaw-gate has caused the middle ground voters to lose confidence in WP, as well as opposition movement. The sacking of Yaw could only savage part of the middle ground voters portion. The win will be less than 60%, provided that it is a straight fight.

Goh Meng Seng

Char_Azn said:
Think 70% is too much to ask for.

1)Yaw have been working in Hougang for some time. The new guy coming in, does he have that long a history in Hougang?

2)There is also the LTK effect, when LTK left Hougang, some of those in Hougang saw themselves as the last bastion for opposition and it cannot fall hence they voted for the opposition. Aljunied was the same, a number of pple I've met have express the same during the last GE, they were afraid that Hougang might fall and they thought themselves responsible for ensuring the continuing presence of opposition members in Parliament. Now that LTK have secured Aljunied, some of those votes might be gone. Those are critical coz those demographics are basically the middle ground

3)WP major screw up during the ministerial debate

4)They did score some points by sacking Yaw but the fact that it had to drag this long basically only ensures they win back the opposition vote rather then the middle ground. They should have been more decisive and do it within the first 2 weeks.

5)PAP making various policies in recognition of the problems in the last GE.

I have no doubts in a straight up fight the PAP will lose, but WP will do very well to get the same number of votes as the last GE. 70% is too much to ask IMO

brocoli · Feb 15, 2012

Goh Meng Seng said:
provided that it is a straight fight.

Goh Meng Seng

are you or are you not goin to?

Goh Meng Seng · Feb 15, 2012

At this current stage and situation, I do not think opposition should go into multi-corner fight. I will definitely not contribute to such multi-corner fight.

We have come so far in building democracy in Singapore and now, opposition is taking a hit from Yaw-gate. It is only right for opposition to unite at this instance to safe guard Hougang.

Goh Meng Seng

brocoli said:
are you or are you not goin to?

brocoli · Feb 15, 2012

Goh Meng Seng said:
At this current stage and situation, I do not think opposition should go into multi-corner fight. I will definitely not contribute to such multi-corner fight.

We have come so far in building democracy in Singapore and now, opposition is taking a hit from Yaw-gate. It is only right for opposition to unite at this instance to safe guard Hougang.

Goh Meng Seng

quote 1st....

zhihau · Feb 15, 2012

brocoli said:
quote 1st....

ahahahah ahahaha hahahahahahaha...

bro,

i meant to add to your points for this classic quote but realized i couldn't because i need to add to others before i can add your points again! this is a good one!

ahahahah ahahahahahhahahahahahaha...

brocoli · Feb 15, 2012

zhihau said:
ahahahah ahahaha hahahahahahaha...

bro,

i meant to add to your points for this classic quote but realized i couldn't because i need to add to others before i can add your points again! this is a good one!

ahahahah ahahahahahhahahahahahaha...

quote 1st so that I can ask for points later.. HEE HEE HEE

Varuna · Feb 15, 2012

kingrant said:
It will be more of a visceral and emotional reaction as a morale booster and "reward" for LTK and his leadership courage etc.

I think so too. I believe Hougang residents voted for Yaw because of LTK. Furthermore with LTK watching over WP and doing the right thing in pulling out the party whip on Yaw, their confidence in WP can be even greater. It shows the party is capable of self-administering and enforcing discipline within itself. It's a good move to cut this rotten apple off the tree early.

Varuna · Feb 15, 2012

Goh Meng Seng said:
At this current stage and situation, I do not think opposition should go into multi-corner fight. I will definitely not contribute to such multi-corner fight.

We have come so far in building democracy in Singapore and now, opposition is taking a hit from Yaw-gate. It is only right for opposition to unite at this instance to safe guard Hougang.

Goh Meng Seng

Agree. Let the best man who has the highest chance of winning represent opposition party to fight with the ruling party.

Toronto · Feb 15, 2012

Perhaps, it would be wonderful for Goh Meng Seng to fight the by-election as a WP candidate...
Someone close to WP can raise the suggestion.

gohsanho · Feb 15, 2012

Its good to have by-election during mid-term. We are seeing increase in foreign workforce in SG, a breaking of the promise to maintain at one third and other issues. The by-election will act as a checking mechanism. Very healthy.

GoldenDragon · Feb 16, 2012

Goh Meng Seng said:
The win will be less than 60%, provided that it is a straight fight. Goh Meng Seng

Want to bet? Bets between friends is no offence. So, no worries whether the cops will come after us. 1k, on? I sui sui lah, win you 800 lose you 1k?

Hougang By-Election Playbook

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