What is KJ's problem?

Your second upper didn't teach you the cost of conducting a referendum?

aurvandil said:

Why is everyone so leery of doing a referendum? Is it because of the very real possibility that a majority of Singaporeans will vote against the loan pledge? If a majority of Singaporeans vote against making the loan pledge, should we still proceed?

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Please name where we should deposit the $4 billion then. Citibank?

Goh Meng Seng said:

Nobody is disputing that such loan will have priority in repayment. However, having said that, it doesn't mean that it will definitely be repaid. i.e. There are still billions of dollars of debt being written off. One should be very careful in making such half-truth representation which may give the wrong impression.

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No, Londtrader, this is here we disagree.

The amendments were done by PAP with this in mind: What if there is a "rogue" government that beats PAP and become the ruling party? Thus, the idea of Elected President as the "second key" of safe guard, which in my view, a self-serving attempt to take EP as the second defence line against PAP's opponents, to make it difficult for them to rule proper.

With that in mind, these amendments were made and of course, as you have said, at this moment, they won't want these amendments to make life difficult for them! However, this knife cuts both ways but you just need somebody to hold the knife and know how to use it.

Whether the constitutional law experts rally behind KJ is one thing... but I am sure PAP will be the one making hell lots of noise about such loans and will do even more constitutional challenge if they ever become "opposition".

Goh Meng Seng

londontrader said:

NO GMS, you make the same mistake as KJ
The constitution makes no such reference or else the constitutional law experts (who were very vocal about the Hougang BE case) would rally behind KJ (which they are not)

Think about this.
This constitutional amendment was personally supervised by LKY himself. I understand that the old goat read and approved every line and punctuation mark! He would never have made the govt accountable to anyone with respect to making loans to others ie. just imagine the implications for GIC and Temasek!!

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I attach below an article vis sa vis the IMF by Kenneth Rogoff as distinguished a critic of its operations and methodology as any. The distinguishing factor for any IMF loan to a country is that it remains super senior and repayment of it supersedes any private sector debt.

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Prof Rogoff is as distinguished as they come with regards to International Monetary Economics. However, he was the Fund's Chief Economist for a long period, where he got into a rather public tiff with Joe Stiglitz (the real IMF critic).

For example if in a currency crisis, MAS utilizes its forex reserves to defend another central bank , or maintain currency stability is that a loan ?

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That facility exists thru the Chiangmai agreement etc.. So no problems with that since some form of oversight actually took place
That sudden pledge to Suharto's govt (at the height of the Asian crisis) on the other hand went beyond what is acceptable
That's the point we're all trying to make here

It should be announced and it should be discussed, but as to seeking parliaments approval, certain things should be at the discretion of the leadership of the day, vis va vis actions for the global good

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Yes it's troublesome to seek approval now and then and govts deserve some discretion to operate smoothly
BUT when the sitting govt displays "dictator-like" tendencies, I would think most people would prefer less discretion than more!

Goh Meng Seng said:

Ironically, the arrogance belongs to JW5, not me. I have never want to mention my Second Upper Hons so far but if he thinks he can take potshot at my whole cohort, he better thinks again.

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I was not taking a potshot at your whole cohort. I was taking a potshot at YOU!
What I said was that for someone with a second class honours in economics, your lack of basic knowledge is shocking. That means YOU!
The rest of your cohort probably has the basic knowledge. But NOT YOU!

I have also had dealings with quants for years. Prior to 2007, they used to sneer at everybody as if they knew something that the rest of the world did not. If you understood the math and pointed out the flaws in their empirical work, they would wave you off as someone who just "did not understand". There was the unshakable faith of all and sundry in the financial industry that math had conquered risk. Those who worked at Lehman and their like were revered as servants of the Gods. It took the events of 2007 to show to the world the bullshit of these Wall Street rocket scientists.

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Dude (?)

I'm not a Quant. Don't have the Phd and never learnt enough Math nor ever interested
I do supervise several Quants and they know shit about things like the IMF because political economy never did fit into comfy equations
Was never a believer in quantitative modelling (but do understand a fair amount of it) per se and hence, survived the Lehman crisis and even made $ from it. I'm not shoving anything down anybody's throat and do respect a diversity of views
My only peeve - people who don't respect facts

The current Euro crisis has shaken the faith the markets used to have in sovereigns

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Look, if you worked in the industry, you will know that we all lost faith in sovereigns a long time ago ie. recall Russia and the LTCM crisis??

the IMF has somehow been rebranded to become some sort of super loanshark who never loses money. What is even more amazing is that although the IMF have lost their 3 largest contributors, there is this strange conviction that it is "safe" to pledge money to the IMF to bailout Europe. Some even likened it to depositing money in a bank which can be withdrawn at any time on demand.

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Never said the Fund doesn't lose money.
Did say that the IMF loses money IT CAN AFFORD TO LOSE
big difference there
Also, the Fund is pretty well funded for an institution that lost it's biggest funders
Figure that out?

Why is it safe to make that Pledge (that many others have made too)
Because the IMF will never be allowed to (nor would it want to) commit suicide by lending Europe more than it can afford
That's why super loan shark will be around long after the euro bits the dust
Remember the IMF is run by POLITICIANS and not Economists or Quants!
And politicians are like roaches ie. hard to kill!

Will folly never cease ..

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The folly lies in the belief that institutions like the IMF actually offer real help to anyone

Where once being called a quant was regarded as a mark of respect, it began to become an insult that the person is someone who cons using maths no one understands.

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You never did work on a trading floor did you?
Quants command respect?????
No Dude, TRADERS command respect!
Quants get sent to Macdonalds to buy breakfast

Goh Meng Seng said:

I cannot help to think what a simpleton you are.

No wonder so many Singaporeans fall for scams! What has the PRC contributes to the value of the condo? By just selling it at S$2.4m? It is just the same condo with the same size which he purchased for S$1.2m! Well, my correction, together with foreign "investors", they have contributed to creating the bubble! This same "asset" can just fall and turn into S$1m! It is a bit too presumptuous for you to talk about "asset" just yet! I guess many people just forgotten that property prices can and will go down!

Never mind about that. We are talking about FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES. I am just asking you, whether the initial "GAIN" of US$1million to Singapore OFR is a good thing? Let's put it simpler, there are no other foreign Currency inputs into the economy, only this US$1m. One year later, Singapore govt will have to raise another US$1m to repay this PRC a total US$2m! So my question is this, is the initial US$1m "gain" in foreign currency reserve really a "gain"? You don't need to be an expert in finance or account to answer this simple question. For this initial US$1m, the country has to come up with US$2m for repayment! So is this a gain or a loss to the State's Foreign Currency Reserves?

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The country comes up with nothing to pay the PRC, because the person who bought the condo from the PRC is an individual.
The country makes money from stamp duty on the real estate transactions and from the original land sales to the developer.
The private real estate transaction does not affect the foreign reserves one bit.
Any foreign exchange conversion made by the prc upon purchase or sale is handled by the private commercial bank which he banks with.
The condo at no time enters the government's balance sheet as an asset, let alone any liability.
The country at no time books this transaction as part of its reserves, assets or liabilities, except for stamp duty and the land sales.
There is no gain or loss to the country's foreign currency reserves.
As for the asset bubble which you mentioned, if that happens, the fool who bought the condo from the prc will take the hit.
His personal balance sheet will see a write down in the value of the condo. Neither the country nor the developer's balance sheets will be affected.

Btw, this simpleton has a first class honours and a master's degree. Have never stood and will never stand for elections, unlike you, the egoistic moron.

I can't wait for the next election to taken this bugger. By then, only the SDP will accept him.

jw5 said:

Btw, this simpleton has a first class honours and a master's degree. Have never stood and will never stand for elections, unlike you, the egoistic moron.

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If you have such a cynical view of the IMF, why bother to pledge any money at all?

londontrader said:

The folly lies in the belief that institutions like the IMF actually offer real help to anyone

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This is the owner of a computer shop in Tampines who has not seen the real word notwithstanding his Second Upper.

londontrader said:

You never did work on a trading floor did you?
Quants command respect?????
No Dude, TRADERS command respect!
Quants get sent to Macdonalds to buy breakfast

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With that in mind, these amendments were made and of course, as you have said, at this moment, they won't want these amendments to make life difficult for them! However, this knife cuts both ways but you just need somebody to hold the knife and know how to use it.

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The "knife" is already sharp enough the original way LKY drafted the amendments. There really is no need to restrict loans made by the govt because the legislation covers all aspects with regards to spending down the reserves. The real power lies in control of the reserves and not lending money. The sitting President can also raise all kinds of hell even if the lending is legit (Tony Tan just chooses not to do so right now).

Just imagine the implications for GIC and Temasek if the Constitution really did restrict lending! The govt would then need to reveal lots of stuff to Parliament on a periodic basis! NO way LKY would have wanted that!

Whether the constitutional law experts rally behind KJ is one thing... but I am sure PAP will be the one making hell lots of noise about such loans and will do even more constitutional challenge if they ever become "opposition".

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What's impt is to have the Constitutional law experts behind you, as the Hougang case illustrates
Let face it, Constitutional Law is a difficult area to tread where even lawyers (like the late JBJ) can still screw up
From a legal point of view, KJ and yourself are plain wrong and any court in Singapore and other commonwealth countries will concur

This is a post 2007 view of quants. Traders like to think that they have the biggest dicks and that they are the masters of the universe. Most are however not too clever and like to pretend they understand the math behind whatever is the trading strategy of the month.

Also if your models were really any good, you would not be working for anybody. You would set up shop and work for your own.

londontrader said:

You never did work on a trading floor did you?
Quants command respect?????
No Dude, TRADERS command respect!
Quants get sent to Macdonalds to buy breakfast

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If you have such a cynical view of the IMF, why bother to pledge any money at all?

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If you claim to have interactions with this industry, it should be plain enough to you!
Any banker worth his salt knows that the international finance system works on CONFIDENCE
This "Confidence Game" works because we all think the money is really there and the IMF will really do something good if the shit hits the fan
Even if they don't do anything much for real, the belief + war chest full of $ is enough to make people confident enough to do business and keep the global economy running.
That's how you avert a crisis
That's why even an IMF cynic like myself can see the need for such pledges

cass888 said:

I can't wait for the next election to taken this bugger. By then, only the SDP will accept him.

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I agree that he will stand again (just cannot resist) and suspect that he may try to join RP. Hope KJ can resist.
You may hate CSJ, but you have to admit that a candidate like Vincent is much smarter and more sensible than him. Perhaps even CSJ is smarter and more sensible than him.
Bad news for you, he may even try to join PAP, but probably even PAP has MPs who are less self serving than this egoistic twit.

This is a post 2007 view of quants. Traders like to think that they have the biggest dicks and that they are the masters of the universe. Most are however not too clever and like to pretend they understand the math behind whatever is the trading strategy of the month.

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Like I said, you never worked in the business
Back in the late 1980s, when Quants were creeping onto the trading floor, they were treated like shit
then, the craze started over quantitative modelling and they were treated like shit you can take advantage of
Post 2007, Quants are treated as DANGEROUS shit that need close supervison

Yes, traders overrate themselves and think they are too clever. That's why we have controllers on the floor (who rank higher than quants)
BUT at the end of the day, it's the trader who puts his and the banks balls on the line and takes on the risk that pays everyone's salaries
THAT's why traders are top of the food chain on the floor, even though they are as dumb as anyone else

Also if your models were really any good, you would not be working for anybody. You would set up shop and work for your own.

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Why would I want to do that???
Now, I get to risk other peoples' money
In my own shop, I would have to deal with irritating things like customers (sales people do that) and PR to raise funding etc. and actually have to do stuff real managers do like HR crap etc

cass888 said:

This is the owner of a computer shop in Tampines who has not seen the real word notwithstanding his Second Upper.

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He must have spent all his time playing computer games, trolling forums, blogs and fb pages, and thinking of ways to get back at WP.
Don't think he even knows what constitutes an asset and what constitutes a liability. Cannot even grasp simple business transactions.
Ignorant people still can learn and read, the bigger problem is that he talks shit because his unjustifiable ego doesn't allow him to admit he knows shit.

You may hate CSJ, but you have to admit that a candidate like Vincent is much smarter and more sensible than him. Perhaps even CSJ is smarter and more sensible than him.

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Well they both have Phds
Since we've brought degree certs into the equation

londontrader said:

Well they both have Phds
Since we've brought degree certs into the equation

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GMS has proven that a degree cert is worth nothing when you are dealing with an egoistic moron.

Never mind about that. We are talking about FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES. I am just asking you, whether the initial "GAIN" of US$1million to Singapore OFR is a good thing? Let's put it simpler, there are no other foreign Currency inputs into the economy, only this US$1m. One year later, Singapore govt will have to raise another US$1m to repay this PRC a total US$2m! So my question is this, is the initial US$1m "gain" in foreign currency reserve really a "gain"? You don't need to be an expert in finance or account to answer this simple question. For this initial US$1m, the country has to come up with US$2m for repayment! So is this a gain or a loss to the State's Foreign Currency Reserves?

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Ok I think you're confused about the data that goes into the OFR and what belongs in the country's BOP (Balance of Payments)

I guess I have to admit the Chinese economic writers in mainland are much smarter in every sense. At least, they know the very basics and look beyond the "glory" of "big Foreign Currency Reserves"!

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Well the chinese already have the world's largest foreign currency reserves, so maybe need to look at other things