Democrats claim majority to form new Thai Govt

[uncleyap]

http://nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/07/politics/politics_30090358.php

Democrats claim majority to form government


By THE NATION ON SUNDAY
Published on December 7, 2008




The opposition Democrat Party yesterday unveiled a new coalition with representatives of smaller political parties and defectors from the disbanded People Power Party.


However, the Pheu Thai Party, the reincarnation of the PPP, vowed to fight back in a political tug-of-war that intensified shortly after the return to Thailand of Khunying Pojaman Damapong, ex-wife of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.


The Democrat camp managed to attract MPs from Puea Pandin and Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana parties, the disbanded Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya parties and the Friends of Newin faction from the PPP, whose MPs are loyal to banned politician Newin Chidchob.


The new coalition claimed to have at least 250 MPs, which is a majority in the House with 447 MPs remaining in the wake of last week's court verdict disbanding three coalition parties and banning their executives from politics for five years.


The Pracharaj Party and some MPs from Puea Pandin, including party leader Mun Patanothai, remained in the Pheu Thai camp.


Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban called a press conference at the Sukhothai Hotel yesterday evening to announce the new coalition. He said the new coalition wanted to push for political changes to meet the wishes of the people.


"We have agreed to form a government to revive the country's economy and confidence," Suthep said after meetings with the PPP's former allies. "We are not doing this for personal or vested interests. No bargaining has been done, and all of us want to cooperate to solve the country's problems."


Sanan Kachornprasart, who represented Chart Thai, said the previous coalition had not been able to run the country effectively so his party had decided to switch sides for the sake of the country.


Ranongrak Suwanchawee said her Puea Pandin Party had decided to do the best thing for the country by switching its allegiance. "All of us agreed that this was the best way to tackle the national crisis. We have made the best choice for Thailand," she said.


Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana representative Pattana Wannarat Charn-nukul said his party would adhere to the majority decision. He said he would inform his party of the joint decision of the Democrat and smaller parties.
Pornthipa Nakhasai, a representative of Matchima Thipataya, said her party, seeing that the Pheu Thai could not put together a new coalition, had the right to switch sides. She said it had decided to do so for the sake of the country. Boonjong Wongtrairat, from the Friends of Newin faction, said his group had decided to support the Democrats so that a new government could solve the country's problems.


He then read from a prepared statement, saying that MPs in his group would vote for Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as the next prime minister and decide whether to join a new political party later.


Meanwhile, leading Pheu Thai members held a press conference at party headquarters to insist on the legitimacy of their party forming a new government and on its ability to muster enough MPs to support the bid.
Deputy House Speaker Apiwan Wiriyachai told the press conference that his group had been informed by some members of the Friends of Newin and Chart Thai leader Banharn Silapa-Archa that they would still support Pheu Thai in a new coalition.


Pheu Thai launched a fierce lobbying campaign yesterday, sources said. The "homeless" MPs, whose groups had pledged allegiance to the Democrats, received phone calls urging them to switch camps.


The sources said that if Pheu Thai could not lure enough MPs to its side, caretaker Prime Minister Chaovarat Chanweerakul would be instructed to dissolve the House of Representatives.


Yet it remained unclear yesterday whether he had the clout to do so. Chaovarat's son Anutin, one of the banned former executives of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party, is a close associate of Newin.


If the plan fails, according to the sources, the alternative is for pro-Thaksin red-shirted protesters to besiege Parliament in a bid to obstruct selection of a new premier, a tactic that was used recently by the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy.

 

[cleareyes]

http://nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/07/politics/politics_30090358.php

Democrats claim majority to form government


By THE NATION ON SUNDAY
Published on December 7, 2008




The opposition Democrat Party yesterday unveiled a new coalition with representatives of smaller political parties and defectors from the disbanded People Power Party.


However, the Pheu Thai Party, the reincarnation of the PPP, vowed to fight back in a political tug-of-war that intensified shortly after the return to Thailand of Khunying Pojaman Damapong, ex-wife of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.


The Democrat camp managed to attract MPs from Puea Pandin and Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana parties, the disbanded Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya parties and the Friends of Newin faction from the PPP, whose MPs are loyal to banned politician Newin Chidchob.


The new coalition claimed to have at least 250 MPs, which is a majority in the House with 447 MPs remaining in the wake of last week's court verdict disbanding three coalition parties and banning their executives from politics for five years.


The Pracharaj Party and some MPs from Puea Pandin, including party leader Mun Patanothai, remained in the Pheu Thai camp.


Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban called a press conference at the Sukhothai Hotel yesterday evening to announce the new coalition. He said the new coalition wanted to push for political changes to meet the wishes of the people.


"We have agreed to form a government to revive the country's economy and confidence," Suthep said after meetings with the PPP's former allies. "We are not doing this for personal or vested interests. No bargaining has been done, and all of us want to cooperate to solve the country's problems."


Sanan Kachornprasart, who represented Chart Thai, said the previous coalition had not been able to run the country effectively so his party had decided to switch sides for the sake of the country.


Ranongrak Suwanchawee said her Puea Pandin Party had decided to do the best thing for the country by switching its allegiance. "All of us agreed that this was the best way to tackle the national crisis. We have made the best choice for Thailand," she said.


Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana representative Pattana Wannarat Charn-nukul said his party would adhere to the majority decision. He said he would inform his party of the joint decision of the Democrat and smaller parties.
Pornthipa Nakhasai, a representative of Matchima Thipataya, said her party, seeing that the Pheu Thai could not put together a new coalition, had the right to switch sides. She said it had decided to do so for the sake of the country. Boonjong Wongtrairat, from the Friends of Newin faction, said his group had decided to support the Democrats so that a new government could solve the country's problems.


He then read from a prepared statement, saying that MPs in his group would vote for Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as the next prime minister and decide whether to join a new political party later.


Meanwhile, leading Pheu Thai members held a press conference at party headquarters to insist on the legitimacy of their party forming a new government and on its ability to muster enough MPs to support the bid.
Deputy House Speaker Apiwan Wiriyachai told the press conference that his group had been informed by some members of the Friends of Newin and Chart Thai leader Banharn Silapa-Archa that they would still support Pheu Thai in a new coalition.


Pheu Thai launched a fierce lobbying campaign yesterday, sources said. The "homeless" MPs, whose groups had pledged allegiance to the Democrats, received phone calls urging them to switch camps.


The sources said that if Pheu Thai could not lure enough MPs to its side, caretaker Prime Minister Chaovarat Chanweerakul would be instructed to dissolve the House of Representatives.


Yet it remained unclear yesterday whether he had the clout to do so. Chaovarat's son Anutin, one of the banned former executives of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party, is a close associate of Newin.


If the plan fails, according to the sources, the alternative is for pro-Thaksin red-shirted protesters to besiege Parliament in a bid to obstruct selection of a new premier, a tactic that was used recently by the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy.

Get ready for full dictatorship in Thailand

 

[The Monkees]

good,let them form the next parliament and government.
see what they are capable of doing.

 

[uncleyap]

Get ready for full dictatorship in Thailand

I can predict that it will be still unstable as the fight isn't over yet.

Thug-Sin is going back for some bleeding terrorism, he already bombed every where, just the brave PAD people are not afraid to die for their country.

When the divide / contention is as strong as this, it is not going to be resolved until the fight depletes one of them towards zero. The price is high but the spirit is very respectable.

One thing the rest of the world had learn now about Thailand is their people are non-compliance and their resolve are very strong their courage are very high. They can not be easily conquered and ruled.

They don't need National Service.

Singapore even with NS can be any time conquered and ruled and the people will easily comply.

The world saw that Thais are willing to pay huge economic price to settle political differences. The hundreds of thousands of PAD protesters came from all walks of their society including military and police, including those who make a living from tourism related industries, students etc. When Thug-Sin's bombs hit them, they did not run away, they are braver than our NS men. They served their nation proudly and practically.

The highest price they had paid are not limited to lives and money, but actually the rule of law that may be hard to reinstall.

When Democrats form government now, the Thug-Sin's camp will disrupt in similar or worst ways. I am expecting bombs to blast everywhere. Rule of Law is something more fragile than people really know. Once it is destroyed it is not so easy to restore. This is the highest price. It rendered elections meaningless when people will not just accept it's result and are willing to fight things out until they are satisfied.

I am proud for the Thais, admire them for willing to pay this price.

It is not over yet, keep your eyes opened.

 

[uncleyap]

good,let them form the next parliament and government.
see what they are capable of doing.

If I were these guys, I will still not be in a hurry to take over.

To hold the executive position now, it is just a huge liability. The enemy still have resources to fight back and if you took over the office the table will turn and it will be their turn to play you out easily. The office positions are not really advantage but burdens indeed.

This is why I think Anwar is smart, and he left UMNO in a weakening power position like sitting duck for him to destroy part by part. If Anwar took over right now, he will be unstable and easily fixed by UMNO in reversed.

So there is no point just to take over the hot seat of PM, it is no fun, will just burn your ass. You would rather keep the enemy's ass burning on it until none of them is willing to be sitting on that any more. One by one - Abdullah already can not stand it, so next burn up Najib, fry another one if necessary, when there is no others to come to get fried by you, then the seat will be comfortably yours.

It will be similar also in SGP, to get stable rule, Ass Loong and some more transitional PM must to and sit in the hot seat and get burnt. 马英九 already knew the taste of it, recently after the major violent protest when BeiJing's envoy visited, he admitted his ass burnt he said 总统实在很不好干。



Same for Obama. He is going to find out very soon.

 

[Alu862]

Please respect others names yap. Do you see Zimbabwe's opposition twisitng Mugabe's name?

 

[uncleyap]

Please respect others names yap. Do you see Zimbabwe's opposition twisitng Mugabe's name?

They don't play this it does not mean that I can not do so. I respect only those who deserve respect. I don't screw the good guys.

 

[The_Latest_H]

They said that in politics, especially in democratic ones, getting elected is actually the easiest part. Because once you're sworn in, there will be people targetting you, especially if you're a new kid in the block.

Even some people were targeting Tony Blair after he was elected, age 43 in 1997.

In politics, sometimes one needs a crocodile hide at some periods of his political life. Still it doesn't mean that the new Democrat leader will get any easier if he becomes PM. Both sides will be gunning for him if he disappoints either of them.

Thaksin guys are waiting for him to fail; the PAD are waiting if he is able to deliver what they demand. I don't admire him for what he's gonna do. I only admire him for his guts. It takes a brave man to accept what is an unbearable job and position in the next year or so.

 

[uncleyap]

They said that in politics, especially in democratic ones, getting elected is actually the easiest part. Because once you're sworn in, there will be people targetting you, especially if you're a new kid in the block.

Even some people were targeting Tony Blair after he was elected, age 43 in 1997.

In politics, sometimes one needs a crocodile hide at some periods of his political life. Still it doesn't mean that the new Democrat leader will get any easier if he becomes PM. Both sides will be gunning for him if he disappoints either of them.

Thaksin guys are waiting for him to fail; the PAD are waiting if he is able to deliver what they demand. I don't admire him for what he's gonna do. I only admire him for his guts. It takes a brave man to accept what is an unbearable job and position in the next year or so.

:-)



Fully agreed.

 

[Nomad]

so now that the yellow protestors had won this round and the opposition is forming the next government with a slim majority of 21.
what is next ?
maybe now those supporters of Thaksin,the so-call Red's Army will protest next.
this is really bad for the country and economic but good for democracy and openness.

 

[Alu862]

Suddenly new govt--better standard of living or no standard of living?

If Dr Chee cannot stand a humnger protest himself why should be accept a Chee administration where we will be hungry?

 

[mentor_LEE]

http://nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/08/politics/politics_30090418.php


POLITICAL REALIGNMENT
Abhisit poised to be PM as democrats seek house vote
By The Nation
Published on December 8, 2008


Pheu Thai tries to woo back fleeing allies with offer of premiership

As Abhisit Vejjajiva inches towards becoming the 27th prime minister of Thailand, his Democrat Party will gather signatures from at least one-third of the MPs today before calling for a special parliamentary session to elect a new prime minister.

The Pheu Thai party continues to rival the Democrat Party in forming the new government and has softened its position by saying it is ready to allow its current coalition partners to propose their own candidates to be the prime minister.

Suthep Thaugsuban, secretary-general of the Democrat Party, has been assigned to gather the signatures from the MPs. He will file the motion at 10.30am with House speaker Chai Chidchob, who in turn will seek royal endorsement to convene the extraordinary session.

Parliament by law will have to vote on a new prime minister within 30 days after Somchai Wongsawat's departure.

Smiles were everywhere at the Democrat Party. The atmosphere was jubilant as it appeared that the grand old party had secured more than half of the representatives in Parliament to form the next coalition government.

The Democrats have drawn about 250 House votes, consisting of 166 from the Democrats and the rest from the Newin Chidchob and Sora-at factions in the now-defunct People Power Party, Chart Thai, Matchima Thipataya, Puea Pandin and Ruamjai Thai Chat Pattana.

Newin Chidchob, once Thaksin's right-hand man, is defecting from People Power with about 37 MPs. The Newin and Sora-at groups are critical in tipping the balance of power in Parliament in favour of the Democrat Party, which has been confined to the opposition since 2001.

Abhisit said he would like to thank all the MPs who have extended their support for the Democrat to form the next coalition government.

"The next step is the opening of a special parliamentary session to vote for the new prime minister. I and other fellow Democrats are determined to do our best to tackle the problems of the country," he said. "Any MPs who believe that we can manage the country's problems can join us."

Suthep also expressed confidence that there would not be any incident preventing the Democrats from forming the next coalition government.

The Democrats welcomed Sakol Muangsiri, a former People Power member, as their new member. Sakol also brought along his two brothers, who serve as Bangkok city councillor and district councillor, to join the Democrats.

The Pheu Thai Party, the reincarnation of the defunct People Power Party, is facing the prospect of becoming the opposition. It is now left with only one ally, the Pracharaj Party of Snoh Thienthong, and some other MPs.

But Pheu Thai has promised to put up a big fight to form the new government. Yesterday it held a meeting to elect Yongyuth Wichaidit as the new leader of the party.

Yongyuth said his party's first priority was to try to form an elected government.

He added that his party was offering a chance for the current coalition partners to propose their own candidates to be the new prime minister. The remark points to a softening of the Pheu Thai Party stance. Earlier it had always insisted that the new PM must come from its party, while coalition partners had suggested the new PM should be from small and medium parties, not from the Pheu Thai Party.

"We will separate the party's executives from the country's executives. Unlike the other parties, we don't allow our party's executives to run the country," the new party leader said.

Former premier Somchai Wongsawat and his wife Yaowapa also observed the Pheu Thai's meeting to vote for the new executive board at the party's headquarters.

Yongyuth was the only candidate for party leader. He was nominated by acting party registrar Kamol Bandaiphet.

Yinglak Shinawatra, a sister of ex-prime minister Thaksin, who was sitting in the front row, seemed surprised that her name was not put forward as a candidate for the party leader.

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

PAD and the Democrats being the "good guys" Again thank goodness you are only a party of ONE plus your doppleganger ah pek at HL:p

They don't play this it does not mean that I can not do so. I respect only those who deserve respect. I don't screw the good guys.

 

[silverfox@]

Those seats that were switched over to Democrats will not be able to hold on to the next election.
Because the people voted PPP to be in that ward. Now they switched just like that, the people who voted will definitely be unhappy, if not they would have voted Democrats to be in rather than PPP in.

 

[yinyang]

Satirical dig at the political charade, inside looking out... insight at jostling now.

Political intrigue, with Taksin's hand (oops, proxy in his ex better half) and horse trading.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/topstory/read.php?newsid=30090182

 

[cheongsimon]

Lucky is not the Singapore Democrat forming the government here.

The only similarity between the Thai and Singapore Democrats here are - They are all POLITICAL HOOLIGANS! They all use protests and break laws to try to seize power for their own self-fish political gains. Look at what happened to bkk airport? you want it in Singapore?

They are only interested in exercising their RIGHTS to "freedom" and in the process try to deny other citizens of our RIGHTS to a peaceful life, to vote and choose the PAP(singapore) or Thaksin's PPP as our governments respectively.

Make no mistake... if SDP forms the government.....

OUR MEN WILL HAVE NO JOBS.... AND OUR WOMEN WILL BECOME MAIDS IN OTHER PEOPLE'S COUNTRY.

 

[taksinloong]

Saving Private Abhisit

http://nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/09/headlines/headlines_30090182.php

FOLLOW IT WITH THE EDITOR
Saving Private Abhisit
By Tulsathit Taptim
[email protected]

Follow the race to world's hottest political seat _ Thailand's PM post _ as it happens.

Are you confused, or tired, or even afraid to know? Don't worry. You are not alone. We are in this together and we'll go through it together. And after a very sad week, the next few days may turn out to be fun for a change. Key developments will be updated and analysed as soon as they occur, so please check this space regularly.

Dec 3, 9 pm: The ruling politicians who survived the Constitution Court's axe are still pondering simple options: Take advantage of the Suvarnabhumi infamy that put their enemies in bad lights, or go down a catastrophic path of their own by naming Chalerm Yoobamrung as new prime minister.

At this hour, they remain undecided. Some have suggested that maybe the House dissolution is the best solution after all. Chalerm's possible nomination has struck fears into both allies and opponents alike, with the influential Newin Chidchob faction reportedly balking at it like a kid in front of a dentist chair. Moreover, the People's Alliance for Democracy members may miss Government House already.

The next candidate, Mingkwan Sangsuwan, is a far less controversial figure. Better still, he is backed by another influential man close to Thaksin Shinawatra, Yongyuth Tiyapairat. But since Mingkwan doesn't possess enough clout among ruling politicians, it may need to take something as commanding as a message from overseas to get him nominated.

Can House Speaker Chai Chidchob be in contention? Well, his sweet, endearing character cannot hide the glaring fact that he is Newin's father. Again, Chai's nomination can get the PAD's marching song blaring at all city corners.

What about Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva? You just can't stop dreaming, can you? Wishful thinkers envision all coalition partners defecting from the dissolved People Power Party to his side, but did you see Banharn Silapa-archa's tearful, contorted face on Tuesday? If Banharn agreed to back Abhisit after that demonstration of unbearable pain, grief and anger in the wake of his party's dissolution, why doesn't he go for a better option of entering monkhood and take a shot at nirvana?

Yet there are people who insisted that the Chat Thai Party did not earn the nickname "Eel" for nothing. They believe the enigmatic Culture Club song, Karma Chameleon, was written specifically for this Thai political party. These Chat Thai-can-do-anything faithfuls have pointed at a tantalizing statement by the party's only surviving senior member, Sanan Kachornprasart, who said The Eel was still keeping its options open. "We will listen to what the people want," Sanan said, ominiously invoking the doomed party's much-invoked motto.

There have also been talks of Newin leading a defection (again) to back Abhisit. Too far-fetched, of course. But again, that a Newin-backed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is an outrageous political scenario doesn't mean politicians on both sides haven't seriously discussed the possibility.

All in all, if Chalerm rising to the premiership will be considered a travesty, Prime Minister Abhisit backed by remnants of Chat Thai and/or the Newin faction will be a black comedy.

One crucial development to watch is who will be the leader of the recently-registered Puea Thai Party, which has become the new home for many PPP MPs. The party is scheduled to elect its leader and 29-member executive board on Sunday, which could give us strong hints as to who will be nominated the next prime minister when Parliament convenes an urgent session next Monday.

About 80 of 218 MPs from the disbanded ruling party have already completed the process to switch to the Puea Thai banner. Deputy House Speaker Apiwan Wiriyachai, seen as a contender for premiership, is now officially a Puea Thai member. He remained humble on Wednesday, saying Industry Minister Mingkwan was a more suitable candidate for the position of prime minister.

Well, this should be it for Wednesday. Am I missing anyone? Oh yes, political speculation cannot complete without a "dark horse". In this case, it's Transport Minister Santi Prompat. I know, to many of you it's like "Santi who?" Don't be too hard on yourself; it's the third or fourth generation of "nominees" we are talking about here.

Dec 4, 11 am: The government camp still doesn't seem to be in a hurry, with news, or rumours, of lobbying not as intense as initially expected. A key development has been a Newin faction member saying that his group will join Puea Thai. "We don't want to be seen as a factor in the appointment of new prime minister," said Boonjong Wongtrairat. "We just want to play an advisory role." That can mean anything.

House Speaker Chai has warned that a rush to decision (on nominating the prime minister) could refuel political tension that had just decreased a little bit. Veera Musigapong, one of three hosts of the pro-government "Today's Truth" TV programme, has insisted that there is no way government politicians would betray their voters by switching camp to the Democrats. Talks about Newin backing Abhisit have also died down.

Another PM candidate has emerged. It has been reported that coalition partners, the Newin group and MPs of the dissolved PPP are looking together at the possibility of installing Ruamjaithai Chat Pattana leader Gen Chetta Thanajaro. He is less controversial than Chalerm, seems a lot more distant from Thaksin Shinawatra and his military backgrounds give him a bigger clout than Mingkwan. His nomination won't send the PAD back to the streets.

But, and it's a BIG BUT, what will Thaksin say?

Dec 4, 2 pm: It's getting a bit ridiculous now but I should have seen this coming. Snoh Thienthong, yes, you heard it right, has emerged as another candidate. With most big names falling out of the picture because of party dissolutions, this is not such a big shock, though. All remotely familiar names are being explored and more fun may be in store.

Anyway, if you put a gun to my head and ask me to choose between Chalerm and Snoh, my choice is simple. Pull the damned trigger.

part 1

 

[taksinloong]

Re: Saving Private Abhisit

Dec 4, 3 pm: Is Newin dragging his feet to raise his stock prices? There have been contradicting reports on exactly how many members of his faction have joined Puea Thai. We believe that about half of the 40-strong faction have registered with the new party.

Some sources said Newin was being careful because whereas the Constitution allows MPs from dissolved parties to find a new home, it is not that clear if they are entitled to joining a brand-new party which has never contested an election and been represented in Parliament.

Meanwhile, Chuan Leekpai's name has finally emerged, albeit just in theory. With Abhisit too controversial because of his associations with the PAD, Chuan looks a sound alternative who could lure coalition partners and some of the Newin faction to the Democrat side. To me, this theory is simply too good to be true.

Dec 4, 4 pm: The Newin faction, or about 30 members of the faction, is reportedly set to announce its decision to join the Poomjai Thai Party, set up as a spare part of the now-dissolved Matchima Thipataya Party.

Meanwhile, the expected trouble has finally materialised. A group of 40 senators has asked the Senate speaker to seek rulings from the Constitution Court on the status of party-list MPs of the People Power Party and status of the caretaker Cabinet.

Constitution writers didn't foresee this problem, apparently. But serious questions are being asked. Can the party list MPs move to a new party, since they became MPs in the first place not on their own but through a proportional representation system? In other words, since voters voted for their dissolved parties, not for them, can they defy the voters' will by joining another party that may not be the preferred choice of some voters? To go to the extreme, should the party list MPs disappear along with the dissolved parties?

The Senate group also wants the court to rule whether Deputy Prime Minister Chaovarat Chanweerakul could become caretaker prime minister since he is not an MP. Also, the status of the Cabinet has been brought into question, as several ministers are PPP party-list MPs.

At this moment, a House dissolution appears a strong possibility.

Dec 4, 5pm: HM the King was represented by the Crown Prince and HRH Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn at the much-anticipated ceremony to thank high-level well-wishers on the eve of his birthday. The royal children told the audience, who had been apparently unaware of the changed agenda, that the king was a bit unwell with fever and sore throat. The Crown Prince and the princess conveyed his gratefulness for the well-wishers and his best wishes for all of them.

Thai people did not expect the monarch's absence either. I can't remember if the King had ever missed giving his birthday speech before. Even if he had, it must be really, really rare. Our newsroom fell silent after the brief statements by the Crown Prince and the princess which lasted less then 10 minutes altogether.

Dec 4, 8.30 pm: We may have to be here for much longer than expected. A royal decree to reconvene the House on Monday has been cancelled, amid doubts about its legality since it was initiated by the Cabinet under premiership of Somchai Wongsawat. And the Cabinet has decided that when to convene the extraordinary House forum to name the new prime minister will be up to MPs themselves, not the government. In other words, the government is saying "It's parliamentary affair now."

So, with the King unwell the political side is unlikely to put forward another request for an extraordinary House session for him to sign in the next few days.

Sorry, but it seems the names of Chalerm, Newin, Snoh and the likes will keep haunting us for the next 10 days, at least. Think of it as a breath of fresh air after months of Sondhi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimuang.

Dec 4, 9.30 pm: The Newin group's newly-released press statement has confirmed its rebellious stand. Basically, the group said it wants to reserve its right not to vote for any controversial figure whose nomination could rekindle political confrontation.

Is this burning a hole in someone's pocket? We shall see, especially if the faction ends up saying either Chalerm or Snoh can bring peace and harmony to Thailand.

Dec 5, 10 am: The Matichon website has reported that there were rumours Thaksin Shinawatra was getting worried and had made some phone calls to Bangkok. There are strong reasons why he should be anxious. The Newin camp, it has been confirmed, is sitting on the fence and refusing to join Puea Thai. Its press statement was clear-cut that the faction would support only a non-controversial PM candidate, which Puea Thai will find it hard, if not impossible, to find from within.

And although the coalition allies met Thursday night and confirmed they would stick together, such commitment was vague at best when choosing the next PM is taken into account. "There won't be a core change," said former PM secretary Chusak Sirinil, meaning the allies won't switch side to the Democrats. "As for selecting the new prime minister, the coalition partners have conveyed their concerns to Puea Thai, asking the party to make a careful selection because there remain many booby-traps in the road ahead and there can be another big problem if the next prime minister is not chosen carefully."

Thaksin reportedly made his phone calls Wednesday evening, following reports that the allies were searching for a non-controversial prime ministerial nominee outside Puea Thai. Matichon quoted senior government insiders as saying that he was desperate to have the allies back a Puea Thai candidate.

Negotiations _ obviously on who gets what if a Puea Thai member is to be nominated _ are to begin shortly. The allies are having an upper-hand (take away the House dissolution card of the Puea Thai camp which doesn't like the option itself) and they must be rubbing their hands enthusiastically.

A total of 155 MPs have joined Puea Thai and 12 others are finalising their documents. The party expect at least 30 more to join in the next two days.

Part 2

 

[taksinloong]

Re: Saving Private Abhisit

Dec 5, 5 pm: Many newspapers may scream "Deadlock" on their front pages tomorrow. Don't get overly excited. No Thai government has ever been formed without that word gracing the headlines once or twice.

Puea Thai today has threatened House dissolution as coalition partners, Snoh in particular, are getting noisier about the new prime minister having to be acceptable to the public. Yep, he of all the people.

The Newin camp has also reiterated its stand against any controversial nominee, and reports about the faction's secret talks with the Democrats have come back again.

Dec 5, 8 pm: Forgive me for all the "rumours". You will see this word with increasing frequency in this live update. There are two main reasons for it: The politicians are spreading all kind of stories that could benefit their bargaining and journalists like me need to protect ourselves. If the "rumours" turn out to be right, credit to us. If not, you know who to blame.

Will Thaksin's ex-wife Pojaman be arriving in Thailand at 10 pm? Nobody can confirm that, even the sources in the defunct PPP who leaked the story were not 100 per cent sure. We should know soon, however, so stay tuned to our website.

Another "good one" is the Thaksin-Newin break-up. The faction has been reported today to be trying to draw more MPs to its side. The group is boasting 37 MPs who are ready to go "independent" when the House of Representatives vote to elect the new prime minister, but claiming that as many as 13 others will join it. The rumours have it that Thaksin, whose leg Newin tearfully clung to like a toddler on first day at school when the former leader vacated Govenrment House just before the 2006 coup, was upset. He allegedly tried to summon Newin but the latter refused to leave the country.

Dec 5,10.30 pm: Pojaman must have landed or she will definitely be landing any minute now, a mini irony as she is one of the first passengers to land at Suvarnabhumi after its reopening.

Among the first questions: Will she be arrested? The only arrest warrant against her, in her capacity as a defendant in the Ratchadapisek land case, has been cancelled after she was acquitted. She was sentenced to jail in a seperate case of tax evasion, but she is still technically in the process of appeal.

Why is she back? Look what Snoh and the Newin group have to say now about the next prime minister and we shall know the answer. Unlike her husband, Pojaman has never spoken politics in public. In fact, I have never seen her speak anything in public. But she is known to be very effective when it comes to backdoor arrangements.

Get ready for renewed talks about Chalerm and Mingkwan as the new PM. As for Chuan and Abhisit, it's back to "so near yet so far" once again.

Dec 6, 10 am: Pojaman is quiet. The Newin group is quiet. The Democrats are quiet. The Puea Thai Party is quiet. Smaller coalition partners are quiet. By "quiet" I mean they are not talking to the media or having nothing new to say. But at times like this, important things usually happen behind the scenes.

Thaksin's spokesman Pongthep Thepkanchana said Pojaman came back to visit her ailing mother. Speculation that she returned to settle things with Newin has been predictably denied. Her house is quiet. Nobody's getting out. Nobody's coming in. There are such things as cell phones, though.

Dec 6, 4 pm: Sorry for my own long silence. The deceptive calm is set to be shattered in the next hour or so. Reports and, ahem, rumours are flooding in at the moment, revolving around the initially scorned scenario of the Democrats serving as the new core of the next government.

The Democrats' "press conference" on the formation of the next government was said to have been scheduled at 5 pm. Shortly after this news reached the press, the Puea Thai side claimed it would have a media conference of its own before that.

Who's the real deal? We shall know soon. Please stay tuned.

Dec 6, 4.20 pm: Democrat sources claim the party now has a commitment of approximate 240 MPs, considerably exceeding the simple majority mark of 224 MPs. The news has come from nowhere as there were no visible talks between the Democrats and the coalition partners over the past two days.

Looking at the reaction from the Puea Thai Party and you feel the Democrat claims have rattled the ruling politicians. "I don't believe the coalition partners will be doing that, especially just a day after pledging their support for us," said Nong Khai MP Pongpan Sunthornchai. "Have Chat Thai and Machima Thipataya MPs forgotten already why their parties were dissolved in the first place?"

Well, we can look at it two ways. Perhaps MPs from both parties "remember" too well why their parties were dissolved in the first place.

A big humble pie awaits me if Abhisit or Chuan is the next prime minister. My no-nonsense dismissal of their chances must have found its way into news groups or web blogs all across the globe.

Dec 6, 4.45 pm: Well, the humble pie is still hanging in the balance. Latest reports from the Democrat camp itself said the 5 pm press conference is now in doubt. Reasons given were Chat Thai playing hard to get. Senior Chat Thai adviser Sanan Kachornprasart, predictabaly, has emerged as a PM contender. There have also been reports that Snoh _ who somehow is still convinced that he is an influential factor _ remains adamant that he wants neither Abhisit or a Puea Thai candidate.

Dec 6, 5 pm: Only some junior Democrats have shown up at the Sukhothai Hotel where the Democrat press conference is scheduled to take place. None of them can give useful information to reporters. The MPs basically know as much as you and me.

However, there is one interesting arrival. Manit Nop-amornbordi from the defunct Machima Thipataya Party told reporters he represented about 10 members of his former party to support the Democrats as the core of the next government.

The press conference has not been officially cancelled. Whatever is going on behind the scenes must be very hectic.

Dec 6, 5.30 pm: It seems the Democrats are being stood up at the Sukhothai Hotel. To be exact, the reporters are being stood up by the Democrats at the hotel. Nobody important has arrived.

On the other side, the Puea Thai Party's headquarters has seen senior members of Puea Paendin and Pracharaj parties arriving. No official announcement has been made, though.

Maybe I have watched too many movies, but in my head I'm seeing Thai politicians sitting in front of laptop computers watching obscene amounts of money going in all directions in frantic wired transfers.

Dec 6, 6.30 pm: I was about to change the headline to "Loosen your seatbelt" when Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban told reporters "It's still on. We are the real deal."

Talks are still ongoing, he said. Suthep's confidence is based on the Newin faction still leaning toward the Democrats. The Democrats, as of now, seems to still have Ruamjaithai Chat Pattana under their wing. Puea Paendin is allegedly split, torn between both camps. And Pracharaj seems firmly with Puea Thai.

For now, the fight for Chat Thai votes will be fierce. Sanan's stocks are rising. But actually, with every vote more important than before, everyone's stocks are rising.

Part 3

 

[taksinloong]

Re: Saving Private Abhisit

Dec 6, 6.45 pm:Urgent, Suthep announces the Democrat Party will form a new government with former Chat Thai MPs, Newin faction members, Ruamjai Thai Chat Pattana, Puea Paendin and Matchima Thipataya parties.

Top representative from Chat Thai, Sanan, is at the press conference, along with leaders of the all mentioned camps.

The humble pie, that is.

Dec 6, 7.10 pm: After taking many deep breaths, it has occurred to me that the party dissolutions mean it won't be that easy for the Democrats. The Sukhothai Hotel press conference looked credible enough, but we have to take into account the fact that Sanan was representing a dissolved Chat Thai, whose MPs are free to go anywhere. The same goes for the defunct Matchima Thiptaya Party.

Snoh is with Puea Thai and Puea Thai souces claimed Chat Thai leader Banharn remained committed with them.

With Puea Thai having 190 MPs at the moment, all it takes is like 35 more MPs to at least create a deadlock. Every vote counts now. I'm keeping the humble pie ready but not eating it yet.

Well, and the thought of Newin being a new kingmaker......

Dec 6, 8 pm: Details of today's behind-the-scenes drama have begun to trickle in. It was said that Pojaman might have returned to Thailand a bit too late, because by the time of her arrival, Sanan's secret talks with the Democrats had already made much progress.

Sanan, according to sources, had been given a greenlight by ex-Chat Thai leader Banharn to decide the dissolved party's future. (What a big irony if you remember the fierce rivalry between the two men when Sanan was secretary-general of the Democrat Party).

The Democrats were confident until their planned press conference was announced early in the afternoon, triggering a hectic response from the Puea Thai Party. Puea Thai senior members, probably acting under instructions of Pojaman, frantically tried to contact Sanan and gave him a BIG offer. After days of insisting that the new prime minister must be someone from Puea Thai, now Sanan was reportedly told by Sompong Amornwiwat that he (Sanan) could take the chief executive post. (Hence the breif rumours in the afternoon that Sanan was the latest prime ministerial candidate)

That proved to be too late, though apparently it managed to throw the Democrats into disarray for a while. Torn between the great Puea Thai offer and fears that he could end up like Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat and his government could be short-lived, Sanan chose to back his former rival Abhisit as the new prime minister.

The Democrats claim they now command 250-260 MPs. The biggest question now is whether the proclaimed numbers are secured.

Dec 6, 8.40 pm: It's not over yet. Puea Thai is reportedly trying to tear as many Newin faction members from the Democrat alliance as possible. As I have mentioned before, the party dissolutions have created some sort of a free-for-all situation, and in cutthroat politics like this you are naturally tempted to make yourself available for the highest bidder.

And we are having by-elections coming for 29 seats in the House. What if Puea Thai sweep that?

Dec 6, 9.10 pm: Puea Thai is said to have launched one of the fiercest lobbyings Thai politics has ever seen. The "homeless" MPs whose groups have pledged allegiance with the Democrats are getting phone calls and everyone who matters on the Puea Thai side is being mobilized to make it happen.

They are even having Plan B and Plan C in store. Sources said if Puea Thai couldn't lure enough MPs to its side, acting prime minister Chavarat Charnveerakul could be instructed to dissolve the House. Problem is Chavarat's close connection with Newin may prove a major obstacle.

Plan C is for red-shirt protesters to do a PAD. It will be quite a sight if Parliament is swarmed by demonstrators in red hellbent on obstructing election of the new prime minister.

Dec 7, 1 am: Yes, I was watching Liverpool on TV, but No, nothing important that we know of has happened on the Thai political front. The intense lobbying must have been continuing but I guess we will know nothing until tomorrow.

A lot of thanks for your emails that feel like a year-end bonus. I mean it. Nothing makes a journalist happier than the sort of feedbacks you guys gave me.

Kevin, it's still hard at the moment to know exactly how many MPs from each of the previously pro-government groups are defecting to the Democrats. All we know are proclaimed numbers provided by the Democrats. They say the alliance is made of 166 Democrat MPs, 15 Chat Thai MPs, 10 Machima Thipataya MPs, 22 Puea Paendin MPs and 37 Newin faction MPs.

The Democrats also claim 12 more, mostly from the dissolved PPP, could also join them.

Tomorrow it can be either clearer or messier.

David, I hope your cold dinner still tasted good. You really deserve that for your e-mail. Rupert, "Old Farang", Kenneth, thank you all.

Dec 7, 1.30 am: Gossip time. We have assessed the following information, compared notes with some other news websites, and decided that we should share it with you. Please bear in mind, however, that this is the time when half-truth or lies are usually told by politicians, be it the most rigtheous or shameless ones.

Gossip One: Newin has told Suthep: "Thaksin no longer trusts me. That makes it difficult to stay with the other side."

Gossip Two: Thaksin was one of those who called Sanan to offer him the premiership. The others include ex-PM Somchai Wongsawat and Sudarat Keyuraphan.

Gossip Three: Key members of the Democrat-led alliance went to meet Army chief Anupong Paochinda at his Army reception home before the press conference.

Gossip Four: Newin's initial condition was that Chuan had to be prime minister. Suthep talked him out of that by citing Chuan's rigid principles when it comes to naming Cabinet ministers. Abhisit was much more flexible, Newin was told.

Gossip Five: Newin's faction was not as united as we believed, and up to 17 (out of 37) may remain "up for grab".

Part 4