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NKL: Rebutting Mahbubani’s $5 meals, $500 holidays and $50k homes for SG50

makapaaa

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[h=2]Rebutting Mahbubani’s $5 meals, $500 holidays and $50k homes for SG50[/h]
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July 15th, 2014 |
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Author: Contributions

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Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Kishore Mahbubani

I refer to Mr Kishore Mahbubani’s 12 Jul 2014 Straits Times column “$5 meals, $500 holidays and $50k homes for SG50”.
Mr Mahbubani mistakenly confines our extraordinary success to just the last 50 years. Singapore had become prosperous soon after our founding in 1819.
• Since its foundation, Singapore had rapidly developed into a prosperous international free port. Its success was due to joint Sino-British expertise, capital and labour. By the 1930s Singapore had become a trade focus for an immense and wealthy area stretching from the Bay of Bengal to China and embracing the whole of Southeast Asia.
[Yeo Kim Wah, Political Development in Singapore, 1945-55, page 14]
• Singapore was the example par excellence of a colonial port that had prospered on global trade because its overlord had the wisdom not to confine its trade for narrow imperial gain.
[Abu Talib Ahmad and Liok Ee Tan, New terrains in Southeast Asian history, page 152]
• Before World War II Singapore had already experienced very considerable economic development. At the beginning of the 1950s it was the most important communications centre in the Far East, not just for shipping but as a focal point for airlines, telecommunications and distribution of mail, Singapore in the inter-war period, was the biggest market in the world for natural rubber, internationally important as a specialized futures market for tin, and a major world oil distribution centre. There existed a reservoir of human capital: the city had an entrepreneur class which is both extensive in numbers and high in quality, and substantial industry, not least as a centre for ship repair with the skilled labour force this implied. Quantitative evidence confirms this impression of rising living standards. In 1956 the first estimates of national income for Singapore showed that per capita income had been increasing fairly steadily and rapidly since 1948 and were very much greater than almost anywhere else in Asia. Per capita income was probably over a third of that in the United Kingdom.
[The Economic Growth of Singapore: Trade and Development in the Twentieth Century, W. G. Huff, pages 31-33]
Mr Mahbubani claims that the increase in our per capita income from US$500 in 1965 to US$64,584 is unmatchable by any other nation state. Mr Mahbubani is again mistaken. According to the Penn World Tables (http://www.rug.nl/research/ggdc/data/penn-world-table), South Korea, Taiwan and China outgrew us in per capita GDP (output) from 1965 to 2011. South Korea also outgrew us in per capita GDP (expenditure) from 1965 to 2011. Our per capita GDP growth has been matched by the other East Asian dragon economies.
CountryPWT 2011 output per capita GDP as multiple of 1965 (both in 2005 USD PPP)CountryPWT 2011 expenditure per capita GDP as multiple of 1965 (both in 2005 USD PPP)
Korea, Republic of22.6Equatorial Guinea28
Botswana19.3Botswana27.1
Equatorial Guinea16.7Korea, Republic of21.6
Taiwan10.8Singapore17.5
China9.6Taiwan10.9
Zimbabwe7.9China9.6
Singapore7.6Hong Kong7.5
Malta7.5Cape Verde7.2
Romania7Romania7.2
Thailand6.8Thailand7
Japan6.6Egypt6.9
Cyprus6.1Cyprus6.5
Ireland6.1Malta6
Cape Verde6Indonesia5.6
Egypt5.6Ireland5.5
Argentina5Malaysia5.4
Hong Kong4.5Argentina5.4
Panama4.4Japan5.2
Portugal4.4Iran5.1
Italy4Portugal4.6

<tbody>
</tbody>
Mr Mahbubani believes we have reached a good base camp in 2014. How can a good base camp be so squeezy and so infrastructurally inadequate?
Mr Mahbubani claims we have had no conflict over the last 50 years as though the recent Little India riot is not a conflict. Like the three wise monkeys, Mr Mahbubani sees no evil, hears no evil and speaks no evil.
Mr Mahbubani takes pride in 90% of our citizens owning our own homes, never mind many retiring today don’t have sufficient CPF retirement money after paying for their homes.
Mr Mahbubani quotes well known journalist Mr M. J. Akbar asking fellow Indians why can’t they have a simple toilet in every home by 2022, broadband in every village and cleanliness. Mr Mahbubani forgets that:
• India has 192.67 million households compared to 1.15 million households in Singapore. If Mr Mahbubani is tasked to supply another 192.67 million – 1.15 million = 191.52 million toilets in Singapore, can he complete the work by 2022?
• If our nationwide fibre optic contractor keeps getting fined for not being able to complete its work on time in small Singapore, can it do better in much bigger India?
• Singapore has hordes of cleaners without which Singapore would look like Little India after every Sunday.
Mr Mahbubani bemoans citizens’ growing tired of success narratives and begrudges them focusing only on huge population increase, crowded trains, long wait for flats, highway jams and soaring COE.
• He should accept that as long as success narratives don’t gel with figures from international agencies and don’t gel with everyday experiences, people won’t buy them.
• He forgets that it was through sound public provision that PAP won over Singaporean hearts so why should it come as a surprise that when the goods dry up, so will the good will?
Mr Mahbubani uses his own example of going from a three-figure monthly salary in 1971 to a five-figure salary now to show how exceptional Singapore’s first 50 years track record has been by historical standards. He forgets that Singapore is winner-takes-all so that when one person takes all, others cannot.
Mr Mahbubani claims that every Singaporean can enjoy cash and credit. But given our high GINI inequality how much cash or credit can low income families enjoy?
Mr Mahbubani boasts of our car ownership being the highest for a city. But Singapore already had the highest car ownership in Asia back in the mid-1950s.
• Prosperity had spread, so that Singapore was almost certainly the only place in Asia where there is a really substantial middle class. In the mid-1950s the island had 30 people per private car and British Malaya 70. No other country in Asia had fewer than 120.
[The Economic Growth of Singapore: Trade and Development in the Twentieth Century, W. G. Huff, pages 31-33]
Mr Mahbubani boasts of us being the first to open up to global MNCs. We were just one of four East Asian dragon economies that were the first to benefit from globalization and MNCs. Furthermore, our pursuit of the FDI strategy was courtesy of Dr Albert Winsemius, our economic advisor from UN.
Mr Mahbubani boasts of Singapore being one of few developed countries where good meals can be had for less than $5 per head. He quoted Mr Steve LaNasa, ex-president of Donnelly College in Kansas praising the amazingly good quality hawker centre food at astonishingly low prices. Mr Mahbubani, please tell Mr LaNasa that Singapore hawkers have existed long before PAP was born so stop trying to sneak this in as another PAP achievement.
Mr Mahbubani asks us to stop dreaming about holidays in London, Paris, New York or Orlando and travel instead to magnificent Southeast Asian historical sites for less than $500 per head. From dreaming about Switzerland in the 1990s, we are now asked to dream about Southeast Asia. Is that progress Mr Mahbubani?
Mr Mahbubani suggests that we buy small homes elsewhere in Southeast Asia for less than $50,000. After studying hard, serving NS and working hard, Singaporeans are now asked to move to poorer parts of Southeast Asia. All our hopes for this country have been in vain. Singaporeans who cannot afford expensive Singapore must vacate this land for rich foreigners who can. This Mr Mahbubani says is normal behaviour in other countries.
Mr Mahbubani wants us to forget all our troubles and party for one year to build up our happiness quotient. But burying our heads in the sand won’t bring us happiness. Mr Mahbubani must supply 40% × 3 million × 365 = 438 million ecstasy pills to dumb ourselves down for one year.
Thank you
Ng Kok Lim
Straits Times, $5 meals, $500 holidays and $50k homes for SG50, 12 Jul 2014, Kishore Mahbunani
BIG Idea No. 6 will seem corny at first glance. This is why it is important to read to the end of this column, especially the last paragraph, to understand its full import.
Here is the idea for my fellow Singaporeans: Let’s decide to be happy for one year – from Aug 10 to next Aug 9, when it will be the 50th year of Singapore’s existence. And why be happy for this one year? The reason is simple.
We have had, by any standards, an extraordinarily successful first 50 years. The chances of us being equally successful over the next 50 years are practically zero.
I will explain why later.
Since we have had a good run and are about to embark on a more difficult run, let us rest and celebrate before the hard slog. A mountaineering metaphor comes to mind. We have reached a good base camp. Before we climb to higher and more difficult altitudes, let us drink teh tarik and celebrate how far we have come.
Since so much has been written about Singapore’s extraordinary success story, I will not dwell much on it. Our per capita income has gone from US$500 in 1965 to almost US$64,584 (S$80,253) last year, based on purchasing power parity terms. No other nation state can match this record.
More importantly, we have had no conflict, at home or with our neighbours. Ninety per cent of our citizens live in homes they own. And we have wonderful education, health, civil service and military systems, and so on.
To understand how well-off we are, just read the following aspirations of Indians after they elected Mr Narendra Modi as their Prime Minister. Mr M. J. Akbar, a well-known journalist, asks his fellow Indians: “Why cannot we have a simple home with a toilet for every Indian family by 2022? Broadband in every village? Electricity around the clock? A clean country, rid of garbage and filth that poisons life and nature, by 2019, as a tribute to Mahatma Gandhi on his 150th birth anniversary? These are not luxuries in the 21st century: they are bare necessities.”
We have achieved everything on his list and achieved it long ago.
Yet, it is also clear that our citizens are tired of this success narrative. They remember only the difficulties of recent years: the surge of foreigners, the crowded Mass Rapid Transit trains; the long wait for Housing Board flats; the traffic jams on our highways; the soaring COE (Certificate of Entitlement) premiums and so on.
Hence, instead of approaching our 50th anniversary in a jubilant mood, there are hints of a sour mood in the air. The goal of this article is to dispel the sour mood.
Hard times ahead
PARADOXICALLY, the best way to do this is to tell Singaporeans that harder times are coming. First, since our track record in the first 50 years was so exceptional (even freakish by most historical standards), it will be impossible to match the same success. My generation has had it exceedingly good. And I experienced it personally. I went from a three-figure monthly salary in 1971 to a five- figure salary now. My children will not experience this dizzy climb upwards.
Second, as I have said in earlier columns, we do not have enough land for each and every Singaporean to achieve the dream of the five Cs (car, condo, country club, cash and credit card). The last two we can all have. The first three we cannot all have. There isn’t enough land to have millions of cars. Singapore already has one of the highest car ownership populations for a city; as of April, about 560,000 households owned at least one car each for a total of 605,184 cars.
Nor can we build condos for each Singaporean family. And the land for country clubs is shrinking. Singaporeans therefore belong to a unique tribe: They have to deal with the existential angst of not having the land to fulfil their dreams.
Third, we are losing, if we have not already lost, our first-mover advantage. We were the first to open up to global MNCs. Today every country does so. We were the first to set new global standards in services and logistics.
Dubai Airport used to describe itself as a disciple of Changi Airport. But now our disciple has a much busier airport. In the past year, 67.3 million international passengers passed through Dubai, compared with 53.1 million through Changi. Indeed, Dubai is now No. 1 in the world for international passengers, surpassing even London’s Heathrow Airport.
Similarly, Emirates used to look up to Singapore Airlines for inspiration. Now it has become twice as big.
In each area that we have excelled, we will have to deal with tougher competition. That’s why the next 50 years will be a harder slog.
So, let’s celebrate this very special moment. And how should we celebrate? There will, of course, be many national parties in 2015. And we should participate in them heartily.
But let us also celebrate at the individual level. Let us appreciate some unique and simple joys that all Singaporeans, rich and poor, can enjoy together. Let me cite some simple pleasures we can indulge in (and since we are celebrating our 50th birthday, I am using the number five in each category).
A toast to $5 meals
FIRST, Singapore is one of the few developed countries where one can get good meals at less than $5 per head. It took a colleague of mine, who recently arrived in Singapore, to remind me of this exceptional gift we have.
Mr Steve LaNasa used to be the president of Donnelly College in Kansas. Since coming to Singapore with his wife and two children, aged 10 and 13, in early January, he has been taking his children out to hawker centre after hawker centre. And he is absolutely amazed at the good-quality food you can enjoy in Singapore at such astonishingly low prices.
He says: “Despite the fact that ‘fast food’ is ubiquitous throughout the United States, it’s nearly impossible to find good, healthy prepared food at convenient locations, and what is available certainly isn’t worth what you pay for it.”
Sometimes it takes a foreigner to remind us that we live in a food paradise. Why not indulge in this food paradise for less than $5 a head and toast Singapore each time we do so?
$500 holidays
SECOND, Singapore is fortunate to be situated in the most diverse cultural environment of our entire planet, South-east Asia. No other region can claim to have all the world’s leading civilisations and religions living in relative harmony in such close proximity to one another. Many middle-class people from all over the world spend thousands of dollars to appreciate the special beautiful attractions of South-east Asia.
So for one year, let us stop dreaming of going to London or Paris, New York or Orlando. Instead, for less than $500 a head, we can experience magnificent historical sites and some of the most hospitable cultures on our planet.
I hope that my next book will be on South-east Asia. Its tentative title is The Most Blessed Corner Of The World. We Singaporeans are truly blessed to be situated in the heart of this blessed corner. Let us enjoy it for one year very cheaply with $500 holidays.
$50,000 homes
MY THIRD suggestion will be both controversial and difficult. It is very difficult to buy a decent- sized condo unit for less than $1 million in Singapore. Yet, we can buy a small home somewhere in South-east Asia for less than $50,000. Ultimately, this may be the best solution to the existential angst of living in Singapore. We can experience the freedom of space in our neighbouring countries if we cannot experience it in Singapore.
In looking for cheap properties in rural areas, we will simply be emulating the normal behaviour of citizens who live in crowded cities and look for homes in rural areas in South-east Asia within easy reach via budget airlines.
Let me add another truly outrageous suggestion. Why don’t we encourage our rich developers, who have profited from 50 years of economic growth in Singapore to develop projects selling $50,000 homes in South-east Asia to fellow Singaporeans? The Government can also step in to help as it will make many Singaporeans happier.
And why is happiness important? I believe that the most important goal for Singapore in the next 50 years will not be economic growth or political stability. Instead, it will be social resilience.
Only strong social resilience will carry us through the inevitable stresses and strains Singapore will encounter in the next five decades. Happiness does not just help at the individual level. Happy societies are also more resilient societies. We have had a happiness deficit for some time. Let us party for one year and build up our happiness quotient. After that, we will be ready for the more challenging five decades coming our way.
Postscript
IN MY column on April 12, I wrote: “Hence, for 2015, when we celebrate our 50th anniversary, I hope that one of Singapore’s philanthropists will award a $500,000 prize for the best history book written on Singapore.”
I am pleased to inform Straits Times readers that an anonymous donor has contacted me to support a project to promote a deeper understanding of Singapore’s history in future generations of Singaporeans and the world.
He has agreed to donate $500,000 for this Singapore history project prize. The money will go towards an endowment fund whose interest will be used to support a book prize every three years. He told me he became a Singapore citizen this year, even though he has lived here for many years. He would like to do something for Singapore.
The writer is dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. He was named one of the top 50 world thinkers this year by Prospect magazine, a British publication.
 

laksaboy

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Kishore - the little think-tank academic doggie of LKY.

Oh, and he's also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
 

johnny333

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Does his figures include Sporeans CPF?

People are having problems getting their CPF out. CPF may turn out to be a hidden tax.
 

Froggy

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Ah neh behaviour caught on camera yesterday in SQ'2 Krisflyer lounce in T2

[video=youtube;Kt9czQmpW-c]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kt9czQmpW-c[/video]
 
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