https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Uk...=3&pub_date=20220403093000&seq_num=5&si=44594
Is Putin cracking? Voice analysis belies steely exterior
Russian leader's initial optimism of conflict gave way to high stress, audio indicates
An analysis of Russian President Vladimir Putin's speech on the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea indicated lower stress levels but an inward-looking mindset. (Source photo by Getty Images)
KOJI KATO, MASAYUKI TERAZAWA and HIROAKI USUI, Nikkei staff writersMarch 31, 2022 02:01 JST
TOKYO -- With Russia now more than a month into its invasion of Ukraine and showing little sign of backing down, how has Russian President Vladimir Putin's mindset changed over the course of the conflict? The answer may lie in his voice.
Nikkei and Yokohama-based Risk Measurement Technologies looked at 1 hour and 19 minutes of voice samples from Putin from between Feb. 1 and March 18. An analysis of the audio suggests his stress levels were elevated starting in the days before the invasion and climbed sharply in early March, when Moscow responded to the tightening sanctions net around the country.
Changes in a person's mental state can affect their vocal cords, altering speech and potentially offering insights into their mentality that might be difficult to glean from their words or facial expressions.
Using Putin's comments at the U.N. General Assembly in September 2020 as a baseline, the analysis found a significant shift three days before the invasion, during a Feb. 21 meeting of the Russian Federation Security Council.
The president heard from top officials, including the prime minister, foreign minister and the heads of the two chambers of the Federal Assembly, on the question of whether to recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.
During the meeting, Putin's voice indicated swings between high and low levels of stress in a short time, a sign of wavering feelings. "We can conjecture that he was in a state of psychological instability," said Risk Measurement chief Kanji Okazaki.
Nikkei's analysis also looked at Putin's gestures. Ikuo Daibo, president of Hokusei Gakuen University in Sapporo and an expert on the relationship between body language and mental state, noted that Putin supported himself with his hands on his desk. "He felt determined to carry out something he'd decided on," Daibo said.
In a televised speech on Feb. 24, the day of the invasion, Putin used forceful language, emphasizing that "today's Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states."
Though his stress levels varied here as well, there were times when it trended lower, which Risk Measurement says indicates an optimistic mindset. Here, Putin may have been confident in the Russian military's ability to quickly meet its objective, which was reportedly to seize Kyiv in a lightning strike.
The president seemed tense again on March 10, in a meeting with Russian officials in which he indicated that Moscow would retaliate against foreign companies that withdraw from the country.
His vocal stress levels were over 40% higher than usual. Combined with his body language, "he seemed to be showing defiance," Daibo said.
The stress readings were lower on March 18, when Putin delivered a speech to mark the eighth anniversary of the annexation of Crimea in front of a crowd of 200,000. He claimed that the purpose of the conflict was to relieve residents in the eastern region of Ukraine "of suffering, of this genocide" allegedly being carried out by Kyiv.
While his voice indicated stability, analysis of the video footage showed signs of an inward-looking mindset.
Research on the relationship between voice and emotional state is ongoing. Reports suggest that vocal analysis can identify people with depression, and there are studies showing that the results of such analyses match closely with people's self-reported mood and stress levels.
Correction: An earlier version of this storyincorrectly named Risk Measurement Technologies as Risk Management Technologies.
Is Putin cracking? Voice analysis belies steely exterior
Russian leader's initial optimism of conflict gave way to high stress, audio indicates
An analysis of Russian President Vladimir Putin's speech on the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea indicated lower stress levels but an inward-looking mindset. (Source photo by Getty Images)
KOJI KATO, MASAYUKI TERAZAWA and HIROAKI USUI, Nikkei staff writersMarch 31, 2022 02:01 JST
TOKYO -- With Russia now more than a month into its invasion of Ukraine and showing little sign of backing down, how has Russian President Vladimir Putin's mindset changed over the course of the conflict? The answer may lie in his voice.
Nikkei and Yokohama-based Risk Measurement Technologies looked at 1 hour and 19 minutes of voice samples from Putin from between Feb. 1 and March 18. An analysis of the audio suggests his stress levels were elevated starting in the days before the invasion and climbed sharply in early March, when Moscow responded to the tightening sanctions net around the country.
Changes in a person's mental state can affect their vocal cords, altering speech and potentially offering insights into their mentality that might be difficult to glean from their words or facial expressions.
Using Putin's comments at the U.N. General Assembly in September 2020 as a baseline, the analysis found a significant shift three days before the invasion, during a Feb. 21 meeting of the Russian Federation Security Council.
The president heard from top officials, including the prime minister, foreign minister and the heads of the two chambers of the Federal Assembly, on the question of whether to recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.
During the meeting, Putin's voice indicated swings between high and low levels of stress in a short time, a sign of wavering feelings. "We can conjecture that he was in a state of psychological instability," said Risk Measurement chief Kanji Okazaki.
Nikkei's analysis also looked at Putin's gestures. Ikuo Daibo, president of Hokusei Gakuen University in Sapporo and an expert on the relationship between body language and mental state, noted that Putin supported himself with his hands on his desk. "He felt determined to carry out something he'd decided on," Daibo said.
In a televised speech on Feb. 24, the day of the invasion, Putin used forceful language, emphasizing that "today's Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states."
Though his stress levels varied here as well, there were times when it trended lower, which Risk Measurement says indicates an optimistic mindset. Here, Putin may have been confident in the Russian military's ability to quickly meet its objective, which was reportedly to seize Kyiv in a lightning strike.
The president seemed tense again on March 10, in a meeting with Russian officials in which he indicated that Moscow would retaliate against foreign companies that withdraw from the country.
His vocal stress levels were over 40% higher than usual. Combined with his body language, "he seemed to be showing defiance," Daibo said.
The stress readings were lower on March 18, when Putin delivered a speech to mark the eighth anniversary of the annexation of Crimea in front of a crowd of 200,000. He claimed that the purpose of the conflict was to relieve residents in the eastern region of Ukraine "of suffering, of this genocide" allegedly being carried out by Kyiv.
While his voice indicated stability, analysis of the video footage showed signs of an inward-looking mindset.
Research on the relationship between voice and emotional state is ongoing. Reports suggest that vocal analysis can identify people with depression, and there are studies showing that the results of such analyses match closely with people's self-reported mood and stress levels.
Correction: An earlier version of this storyincorrectly named Risk Measurement Technologies as Risk Management Technologies.
