阿比悉需要更加有效的策略瓦解达信余党

http://uncleyap-kh.blogspot.com/2010/03/blog-post_28.html


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<!-- Begin .post --> 阿比悉需要更加有效的策略瓦解达信余党

相关新华社新闻报道链接

以我个人的看法，泰国现任总理阿比悉对付达信余党和红衫军的策略不十分有效。

特别是这轮谈判就是最具有反效果的。红衫军已经是无功而返，在泄气了，现在去跟达信余党谈判就反而是在给他们加油！策略上是最具有反效果的。谈判让达信余党重燃希望，红衫军重振旗鼓。他们会开始认为自己的行动有效果了，他们会再加油重来。那样，阿比悉就砸了自己的脚了。

泰 国的乡下穷人，会出来参加红衫军，主要是受奸贼达信的指使和利用。乡下的穷人不精明，而认贼作父，误以为亿万富翁的奸贼达信会是乡下穷人的英明救主。奸贼 达信利用一点小甜头，轻易收买了大量不精明的乡下穷人，替自己卖命，令自己家族和朋党急速致富掌权。阿比悉是显然根本不针对这致命要点下手。我认为他在这 里是失策了。

阿比悉在政治上最重要的关键是破解；分割奸贼达信的朋党与乡下穷人的关系。这只是奸谋利用穷人和无知被利用者之间的关系而已，只要清楚点破这个容易明白的玄机就够了。

阿 比悉已经在任(2008年12月）已经多时了，我未见他的政府实现任何有效的善待乡下穷人的政策。而从奸贼达信的前政府倒戈与阿比悉联盟合作的小政党，早 已经对阿比悉道破奸贼达信如何收买乡下穷人的秘诀。阿比悉政府直到现在还无法采取有效的替代政策来吸收乡下穷人对奸贼达信的政治支持，在我来看，这样子很 失败。难怪他要再次的面对红衫军的烦恼。

以民主党政治背景的阿比悉和亿万富翁的奸贼达信来对比，实际上阿比悉的背景对乡下穷人更加吸票。 身为执政首相，在吸收乡下穷人的支持上阿比悉居然还斗不过被流放在外的前首相奸贼达信？这样子的政治失败算阴沟里翻船了！我希望阿比悉能猛然醒悟。他的政 府应当实现改善乡下穷人福利，比奸贼达信更合理的政策。阿比悉本身应该非常直接和亲切的与乡下穷人对话，而绝不是通过达信余党（所谓的红杉军领袖）谈判。

即 使所谓的红杉军领袖要求谈判，即使不拒绝谈判也应该让谈判无效果；无结果。让乡下穷人对所谓的红杉军领袖（达信余党）毫无信心和寄托任何希望，失去参加红 杉军运动的耐心和兴趣。这样才是上策。另一方面，必须釜底抽薪，实现改善乡下穷人福利，非常直接和亲切的与乡下穷人对话，取代达信余党（所谓的红杉军领 袖）支配乡下穷人的领导地位。阿比悉是当任的首相，很容易达到这个政治目标。他必须掌握好这个任务才能彻底瓦解达信余党。

阿比悉对奸贼达 信的家族财力没收和冻结，这样只做对了一半。因为另外的一半没有做好，所以原来做对了的一半，生成了副作用－也就是没收和冻结奸贼达信的家族财产引发了乡 下穷人的反弹和同情奸贼达信，造成了这轮的红杉军抗议。假如该做的领一半先做得足够好，那乡下穷人醒悟了以前曾遭奸贼达信所利用，会反过来支持阿比悉的。

阿比悉所剩的任期有限，必须再面对大选。再不掌握好对付奸贼达信余党和红杉军问题，就可以准备下台了。我希望泰国百姓有福，早日清除奸贼达信余党。





posted by uncleyap at 7:36 PM

阿比悉对应红衫军抗议的反应十分笨拙。我不是要恶意批评他。

我本身曾经和阿比悉的政党代表在不同国家一同参加政治交流和研讨会。

我认为当红衫军抗议的时候，阿比悉如临大敌，去躲在陆军营里面，这样是大失策，让红衫军有信心认为阿比悉害怕不安。阿比悉如果对泰国的政治局面能有把握，在红衫军抗议之前，可以宣布大概的选举日期（表明还需要进一步看情况）。就这样简单的一招，就可以化解掉大部分的政治炸药了。躲在陆军营里面是没有什么用的。

当红衫军下毒咒撒鲜血的时候，不必大事宣传的消毒清洗。因为这样面对鲜血会反效果，使人反感。可以劝红衫军医院去捐献救人。亲自替医院的病人请愿。这样做法比较得人心。他可以说：你们的抗议我心领了。请到医院捐血救人。在我门口洒红漆算了，我不计较。他可以自己领头带自己的支持者到医院捐血。以身作则。

在红衫军下毒咒撒鲜血之后，必须以德报怨。可以回送鲜花。可以对捐血者发出补血的铁质药丸。必须让撒鲜血的人自己感觉到自己所做的抗议没有意思。

要反问红衫军，奸贼达信何德何能？为何要为逃税；出卖国家；与外敌私通合作的奸贼达信撒鲜血？有什么意义？不如去医院捐血救人。

What Abhisit is currently doing is exactly what I had pointed out recently. :p
However he is still making the worst mistake, he should not be negotiating with Thug-Sin's dogs. Play them out! & Buy over the peasants!

uncleyap said:

阿比悉对应红衫军抗议的反应十分笨拙。我不是要恶意批评他。

我本身曾经和阿比悉的政党代表在不同国家一同参加政治交流和研讨会。

我认为当红衫军抗议的时候，阿比悉如临大敌，去躲在陆军营里面，这样是大失策，让红衫军有信心认为阿比悉害怕不安。阿比悉如果对泰国的政治局面能有把握，在红衫军抗议之前，可以宣布大概的选举日期（表明还需要进一步看情况）。就这样简单的一招，就可以化解掉大部分的政治炸药了。躲在陆军营里面是没有什么用的。

当红衫军下毒咒撒鲜血的时候，不必大事宣传的消毒清洗。因为这样面对鲜血会反效果，使人反感。可以劝红衫军医院去捐献救人。亲自替医院的病人请愿。这样做法比较得人心。他可以说：你们的抗议我心领了。请到医院捐血救人。在我门口洒红漆算了，我不计较。他可以自己领头带自己的支持者到医院捐血。以身作则。

在红衫军下毒咒撒鲜血之后，必须以德报怨。可以回送鲜花。可以对捐血者发出补血的铁质药丸。必须让撒鲜血的人自己感觉到自己所做的抗议没有意思。

要反问红衫军，奸贼达信何德何能？为何要为逃税；出卖国家；与外敌私通合作的奸贼达信撒鲜血？有什么意义？不如去医院捐血救人。

Click to expand...

http://bangkokpost.com/news/local/173466/pm-9-month-timeframe-negotiable

PM: Dissolution date is negotiable

• Published: 1/04/2010 at 04:13 PM
• Online news: Local News

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<!-- end heading-panel --> The government's proposal for a House dissolution in nine months is negotiable, but there must be an improved political climate and clear election rules before the country goes to the polls, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Thursday.
He insisted that the government was not trying to buy time.

The prime minister said his secretary-general Korbsak Sabhavasu was still trying to get the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) leadership to attend further talks.

Mr Abhisit today returned to Government House for the first time since the UDD began its rally in Bangkok on March 14.

UDD leaders, meanwhile, said they were no longer interested in attending talks and would further step up pressure on the government, beginning with a mass rally this Saturday.

The government's peacekeeping operation centre has predicted there will be fewer demonstrators at this weekend's red-shirt rally than the previous week, not more as organisers promise.

Col Sansern Kaewkamnerd, the peacekeeping centre's spokesman, said quite few protesters have already returned home. The centre is not worried about this weekend's rally, he said.

The government estimated there were 4,500 protesters from the North at the main rally on Wednesday night, and 3,000 from the Northeast, Col Sansern said.

Tens of thousands of people took part in the rallies on March 20 and 27.

UDD leaders have said their supporters are rotating and reinforcements are coming from the North and Northeast.

Spokesman for the Metropolitan Police Bureau Piya Uthayo said 45 companies of police will be deployed to maintain peace and order during the weekend rally.

Where they are sent would be decided when the protest details were more clear, Pol Maj Gen Piya said.

UDD co-leader Jatuporn Prompan warned on Thursday that the red-shirts may gather at the NBT if the state-run television station continues to air reports suggesting that it is against the country's most revered institution. He said it was quite clear that the red-shirts' ire was aimed at Privy Council president Prem Tinsulanond, and not the highest institution.
He also said a news report that the UDD plans to set the country on fire [during its mass rally] this Saturday was unfounded.
Red-shirts may also rally at the Election Commission on Monday and call on the EC to expedite a decision on the 258 million baht donation case against the Democrat Party.

"The EC has been very slow in investigating the case because it is using a double standard," he said.

He also suspected the tourism and peace groups who will wear pink and converge at Lumpini park on Friday to counter the prolonged UDD rally could be the same group who joined the yellow-shirt People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protests against ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra and the pro-Thaksin governments.

"They could also be the people who laid siege to Government House, Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi airports and I believe they have worn yellow shirts in the past.

"I also would like to warn academics at Chulalongkorn University not to make an enemy of the red-shirts.

Academics who have been on the PAD stage should not play dirty by dragging the public into siding with the government and put pressure on the red-shirts," Mr Jatuporn said.

阿比悉用错策略，火上添油，难以收拾了。



http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/04/07/politics/State-of-emergency-declared-30126634.html

谈判是大错特错的。谈判造成了更大规模，更凶猛的抗议潮流。

因为是阿比悉自己好心提出要谈判，这当然是好心没好报的。自找麻烦！

现在去冲击国会了，宣布紧急状态也是下策。只会延长危机而已。

现在只有撤销所有的谈判和撤销所有的善意条件。冷淡；冷漠；低调反应，才可以让对手泄气。一定要更加坚定沉着，不要着急，避免大动作，要让对方感觉自己的举动让自己距离所要求的目标更加遥远了。

把国会的所有议程延后，会期延后，让对方觉得解散国会的目的更遥远了。

呼吁其他人民耐心应对红衫的行动，下令军警轮班休息。准备长期的应对。消磨时间。自己转去关注其他政治工作，冷落和忽略红衫的行动。

这样才是上策。

这只是短期，亡羊补牢的上策而已。长期必须切断狗贼达信继续利用乡下贫民的管道。隔离狗贼达信和贫民的政治关联。善待乡下贫民，收复乡下贫民对自己的支持率。消灭达信余党对乡下贫民的影响力，和信赖关系。才能在政治上成功。

亡羊补牢，只能暂时补救自己去要求谈判所造成的错误而已。

阿比悉处理红衫军很无能。这是公道话。

比马英九差劲，比任何台湾政党都更无经验。:(

阿比悉的谈判做法大力鼓舞了红衫军士气，使原本散伙的红衫军士气大振，卷土重来。然后他再向军警施压，指责军警镇压无力。这样两面使劲，必然有血腥结局。而阿比悉本身是民主派的，根本不是强硬的军人政权，根本不是玩硬功夫的料子。怎么可以这样的两面使劲？

现在无论用什么说法都让人觉得好像是推卸责任。最好的亡羊补牢，还是亲自去医院捐血救人，发动捐血运动。慰劳军队。

泰国皇家或非政府组织最好现在揪狗贼达信出来。

狗贼达信才是这次红衫军血腥的幕后黑手！

狗贼达信的手下全都被他所利用了！当了炮灰!做了替死鬼了！

欺骗不精明的乡下贫民来替自己当替死鬼，自己却安全躲在外国逍遥自在！实在是卑鄙的阴险小人！必须把他揪出来。傻瓜的乡下贫民居然还把狗贼达信当成英雄好汉？是好汉的现在就立刻回泰国自首！不要让无辜的人民替自己死亡流血！还躲什么？混帐东西！滚出来！:oIo::oIo:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/hom...ms-killed-by-super-power-rifles-30127091.html

NATIONAL »



BLACK SATURDAY
Nine of 12 victims killed by super power rifles


By The Nation



High power rifle



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An independent panel conducting autopsies on 12 bodies of the red shirts protesters who were killed when the red shirts protesters battled with troops revealed that nine of them were shot by high power rifles.


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<!-- Google Dtail Ads --> Pol Lt Gen Jongjet Aojenpong, a chief doctor of the Forensic Institute, a member of the panel, talked to reporters after completing 11 bodies.
Jongjet said that Hiro Muramoto , a Japanese television cameraman of Reuters news agency was killed by a gun bullet.
But detail of his autopsy was withheld at the family's request.
Muramoto was killed on Saturday as he was taking photos in the red shirts' sides.
Monchai Jong, 54, died from heart failure while a man whom he did not identify was killed at close range.
The independent autopsy panel announced that 9 protesters were killed by high-powered rifles while another protester died of heart failure due to chronic diseases.
High-powered rifles can only be used by specially trained gunmen particularly in the army.


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