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ONLY 9% loss of votes??? Rubbish!!!

makapaaa

Alfrescian (Inf)
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Coffeeshop Chit Chat - ONLY 9% loss of votes??? Rubbish!!!</TD><TD id=msgunetc noWrap align=right></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=msgtable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="96%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=msg vAlign=top><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=msghead><TD class=msgbfr1 width="1%"></TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=msghead vAlign=top><TD class=msgF width="1%" noWrap align=right>From: </TD><TD class=msgFname width="68%" noWrap>PAPalBull <NOBR></NOBR></TD><TD class=msgDate width="30%" noWrap align=right>5:39 am </TD></TR><TR class=msghead><TD class=msgT height=20 width="1%" noWrap align=right>To: </TD><TD class=msgTname width="68%" noWrap>ALL <NOBR></NOBR></TD><TD class=msgNum noWrap align=right>(1 of 12) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD class=msgleft rowSpan=4 width="1%"></TD><TD class=wintiny noWrap align=right>50165.1 </TD></TR><TR><TD height=8></TD></TR><TR><TD id=msgtxt_1 class=msgtxt>
PAP will win this GE with a 60% +/-3% overall share. Their original (optimistic) assessment was that they would win this with a 63%+/- 3%share. The worst case scenario for PAP is actually 56% +/- 3% vote share.
(See http://forums.delphiforums.com/3in1kopitiam/messages?msg=50138.1 for full quote).

What! What kind of utter bullshit statistical model produces this kind of 63% +/- 3, 56% +/-3 nonsense? That's a potential range of around 53% to 66% i.e. 13% - or in other words little better than a wild guess! Thirteen percent! If anyone dared to put a paper with this kind of number in front of me and expects me to take it seriously I would tear it up into neat squares and wipe my arse with it right in front of him. Rubbish! Even the most die-hard Global Warming apologist wouldn't have the nerve (or the blinding stupidity) to put this up except as a joke.

We already know FOR A FACT (not a guess) that there was a swing of around 9% against the incumbent between the 2001 and 2006 elections. Given the momentous global events of the past 5 years and especially the local fallout, do we seriously expect PAP to get away scot free with the 60% +/- 3% vote they predict, i.e. 66% last time, now 57% (worst case)??? That's a 9% drop - THE GOD DAMNED SAME as last time! I say that goes against all the bounds of common sense and what we have seen in just the past one week of electioneering. It's as if there aren't almost 50% FTs here, no floods occurred, we didn't lose $100b of the Reserves, no PMETs have lost their chances of employment forever...there is a graveyard peace all over. C'mon!

If it was a mere 9% fall in popularity they fear,
  1. Would there have been a last-minute public apology from no less a personage than the PM - an event that has never happened in the worse of times in 52 years?
  2. Would we have had the Foreign Minister GY crying mea culpa with a face as long as a coffee pot?
  3. Would you have seen the arrogant 'send your mother to the JB old-age home, cheaper' Minister weeping hot tears of regret for his cruel words?
  4. Does tthe even more cruel MCYS Minister look like a confident winner when you have had the grim pleasure of hearing him back-pedal furiously on his callous remark "Do you want these poor folk to eat in a hawker centre, a food court or a restaurant?"
The author of this so-called 'scoop' first admits he wasn't privy to any high-level discussion whatsoever ('I would have loved to be the fly on the wall at such a meeting') then goes on to give us the whole bloody chapter-and-verse 'Based on my sources'. Fark that, he's playing roulette, isn't he? Based on MY sources why should I believe a word of his wild speculation then? My unidentified sources are every bit as good as his, no?

I tell you what that post is meant to do - it is called 'putting a brave face on a likely disastrous outcome' for the PAP in GE2011. Or in other words 'putting lipstick on a pig'.

Why? Because it is sowing disinformation, a well-known propaganda tool, in an attempt to create F.U.D. - Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt. The kiasu/kiasi weaker minds might be swayed at the last minute to cast their vote for the incumbent because nobody wants to be in the camp of the loser when the victor comes to rape and pillage.

Pay no attention if you have more than two brain cells left. This is the last-gasp twitch of a dying totalitarian mammoth and the sooner we dispose of its carcase the better or it will stink the whole nation of Singapore up.

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