The GE Gold Cup Thread

Thick Face Black Heart · Jul 28, 2015

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

aurvandil said:
The PAP share of the popular vote will be between 53% to 58%.

The Opposition will win 26 to 32 seats for the upcoming GE.

Opposition winning over 26 seats will most likely mean PAP's national vote share will be very near 50%. Your range of 53% to 58% is too optimistic relative to your prediction of oppo seats won.

LOL2015 · Jul 28, 2015

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

Seriously i am NOT surprise if total seats won by the Oppo more than 30 seats :wink:

Since 2011, alot of things has changed. And if you look back the previous record, a GRC can have a swing of more than 10% :eek:

GoldenDragon · Jul 29, 2015

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

zhihau said:
I think I'll check around first after nomination day

I think TFBH is right. If can win another SMC that would be great. The other parties, I doubt will win any.

zhihau · Jul 29, 2015

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

GoldenDragon said:
The other parties, I doubt will win any.

Wah piang... then when can I see a coalition government? :(:(:(

aurvandil · Jul 29, 2015

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

This will be true if there is no gerrymandering.

The purpose of gerrymandering is to keep the expected vote percentage above 60%. Te 60% mark is critical his is because of statistical sampling error. If you group constituencies so that the expected popular vote is above 60%, you will almost be certain to win.

When your popular vote is between 53% to 59%, you cannot obviously group so that all the groupings are above 60%. You will have to sacrifice some of the groupings. The more groups you sacrifice, the more secure the remaining groups become.

In setting up these sacrifice groups, a useful strategy would be to make it obvious so that multiple parties become interested. If there is a serious multi-party fight, you might be able to steal victory even if your share of the vote is less than 50%.

Thick Face Black Heart said:
Opposition winning over 26 seats will most likely mean PAP's national vote share will be very near 50%. Your range of 53% to 58% is too optimistic relative to your prediction of oppo seats won.

Thick Face Black Heart · Jul 29, 2015

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

aurvandil said:
This will be true if there is no gerrymandering.

The purpose of gerrymandering is to keep the expected vote percentage above 60%. Te 60% mark is critical his is because of statistical sampling error. If you group constituencies so that the expected popular vote is above 60%, you will almost be certain to win.

When your popular vote is between 53% to 59%, you cannot obviously group so that all the groupings are above 60%. You will have to sacrifice some of the groupings. The more groups you sacrifice, the more secure the remaining groups become.

In setting up these sacrifice groups, a useful strategy would be to make it obvious so that multiple parties become interested. If there is a serious multi-party fight, you might be able to steal victory even if your share of the vote is less than 50%.

This is a highly divisive strategy that will ultimately fail in the long run.

If PAP is indeed doing this, they are sowing not just their own downfall in 15-20 years time, but also creating massive political divisiveness in Singapore.

mojito · Jul 29, 2015

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

Thick Face Black Heart said:
This is a highly divisive strategy that will ultimately fail in the long run.

If PAP is indeed doing this, they are sowing not just their own downfall in 15-20 years time, but also creating massive political divisiveness in Singapore.

Who cares? There is money to be made today

aerobwala · Jul 29, 2015

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

Your statistics sounds reasonable. Last round your info on casevac operation made me google earth where to park Super Puma at Oxley Road. :mad:

aurvandil said:
This will be true if there is no gerrymandering......

Huat-Ah · Jul 29, 2015

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

mojito said:
Who cares? There is money to be made today

And who cares about your idiot post anyway ? :biggrin:

GOD IS MY DOG · Jul 29, 2015

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

mojito said:
Who cares? There is money to be made today

yes...........even the Lee Clan is only into making $$$ out of Sinkies.............when they're almost kicked out, they'll abandon ship with all their ill-gotten money..........S'pore sink beneath the waves also they don't care...........

LOL2015 · Jul 30, 2015

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

Where is our lovely joker JohnTan :biggrin:

sleaguepunter · Jul 31, 2015

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

Votes percentage mean nothing at FPTP voting system.

It would be great if WP can gain more seats than the 7 it current has. It will be even better if other parties to step up onto the plate too.

LOL2015 · Jul 31, 2015

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

sleaguepunter said:
Votes percentage mean nothing at FPTP voting system.

It would be great if WP can gain more seats than the 7 it current has. It will be even better if other parties to step up onto the plate too.

Ultimately IF Oppo can win more seats, i am very happy liao :biggrin:

PTADER · Aug 8, 2015

The LKY Swing - 2015 Polling Results

Week ending 08 August 2015

Current polling points to a 5.3% swing towards the PAP if elections are held now. However, this swing, henceforth to be called the "LKY Swing", is not uniform, particularly in opposition held wards. Results of particular significance are:

Aljunied GRC

Polling in Aljunied GRC shows a hardening of attitudes, especially by Indian and particularly by Malay voters, against the WP. Current polling indicates a swing of 7.6% against the WP and towards the PAP. As the WP secured 54.72% of the votes in the 2011 election, this translates to a return of Aljunied to the PAP if elections are held now.

Hougang SMC

Polling in Hougang indicates a smaller swing of 4.2% against the WP and towards the PAP. As the WP secured 64.8% in the 2011 election and 62.08% in the 2012 by-election, this translates to the WP comfortably retaining its Hougang stronghold if elections are held now.

Potong Pasir

Polling in Potong Pasir indicates a swing of 5.7% towards the PAP. As the SPP secured 49.64% in the 2011 election, this translates to the PAP comfortably retaining Potong Pasir if elections are held now.

More to come...

Narong Wongwan · Aug 8, 2015

Re: The LKY Swing - 2015 Polling Results

Nabei eh lao cheebye. Pulling fake stats from arsehole.....everyone also can pull from thin air

LOL2015 · Aug 8, 2015

Re: The LKY Swing - 2015 Polling Results

Stupid useless crap thread :biggrin:

Microsoft · Aug 8, 2015

Re: The LKY Swing - 2015 Polling Results

who speculate huan? Pele? hokay go ahead n speculate... :biggrin:

PTADER · Aug 8, 2015

Re: The LKY Swing - 2015 Polling Results

Narong Wongwan said:
Nabei eh lao cheebye. Pulling fake stats from arsehole.....everyone also can pull from thin air

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2%.

Due to the significant swing, the results should hold even if it's -2%.

Thick Face Black Heart · Aug 8, 2015

Re: The LKY Swing - 2015 Polling Results

Satirical article.

Must be a New Nation writer.

JohnTan · Aug 8, 2015

Re: The LKY Swing - 2015 Polling Results

Wah!! As expected, PAP to win big big big this year for GE2015!! I can't wait to hire more EP workers. My department is in need of talent to expand! Got business opportunities! I am so happy!

The GE Gold Cup Thread

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