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The GE Gold Cup Thread

What You Guys Think ?

  • less than 8 seats

    Votes: 4 12.1%
  • 8 to 15 seats

    Votes: 10 30.3%
  • 16 up to 34 seats

    Votes: 9 27.3%
  • 35 seats or more

    Votes: 10 30.3%

  • Total voters
    33

cunnosieur

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Sam's Singapore Pools - GE 2015 Aljunied GRC - WP Give 0.5 Ball - Takers?

GE 2015 Aljunied GRC - WP Give 0.5 Ball - Takers?

放半球

0.5 ball = win by 5% margin
 

cunnosieur

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Sam's Singapore Pools - GE 2015 East Goast GRC - PAP Give 0.5 Ball - Takers?

GE 2015 East Goast GRC - PAP Give 0.5 Ball - Takers?

0.5 Ball = 5% margin win
 

GoldenDragon

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Re: Sam's Singapore Pools - GE 2015 East Goast GRC - PAP Give 0.5 Ball - Takers?

Being ably led by a world class minister, can easy easy pang 2 ball - 20%.
 

xpo2015

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Re: Sam's Singapore Pools - GE 2015 Hougang - WP Give 2 Balls - Takers?

20% aren't we a little bit optimistic?
 

Narong Wongwan

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Re: Sam's Singapore Pools - GE 2015 Aljunied GRC - WP Give 0.5 Ball - Takers?

GE 2015 Aljunied GRC - WP Give 0.5 Ball - Takers?

放半球

0.5 ball = win by 5% margin

What do you mean any takers?
If that's the odds then punters can choose to eat or give....
If the odds are off then punter can counteroffer with better odds.
 

swissbank

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Re: Sam's Singapore Pools - GE 2015 Hougang - WP Give 2 Balls - Takers?

WP gives 2 1/2 balls at Hougang what the odds ???
 

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aurvandil

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Final Poll before GE2015

Blackbox Research has published their final poll before GE2015. Conducted in July 2015, this is the last poll that is legally allowed.

http://www.blackbox.com.sg/wp_new/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/YKA-July-2015.pdf

The MSM has been intentionally mis-interpreting the poll to give the impression that the PAP is having a surge of popularity. A more detailed examination of the results shows the contrary.

The critical graph to watch is on page 1. It shows satisfaction with the Singapore Government over time. In interpreting this graph it is important to understand how the numbers are constructed. The % number is based on a 5 point scale where 1 is undesirable score and 5 is a desirable score. Blackbox groups respondents that gave a 3 to 5 score as being "satisfied" with the government. This is a questionable grouping as it includes the neutral 3 grouping. A more orthodox grouping would be to group the results based on the 4 to 5 as being satisfied. In most studies of this sort, the typical incidence of respondents which would give a 3 score ranges from 30% to 40%. This translates to an estimate of 30% to 40% of Singaporeans actually being satisfied with the Singapore Government. This proportion corresponds more closely to actual core support of Singaporeans who consider themselves PAP supporters.

The critical graph on pg 1 is distorted because the scale does not start from 0. As such, we get the perception of wild swings in support from Jan 2014 to Jul 2015. We can easily remove this distortion by looking at a simple table of the results.

Jan 14 74%
Feb 14 72%
Mar 14 72%
Apr 14 73%
May 14 71%
Jun 14 72%
Jul 14 74%
Aug 14 74%
Sep 14 74%
Oct 14 72%
Nov 14 73%
Dec 14 76%

Jan 15 74%
Feb 15 75%
Mar 15 76%
Apr 15 80% (Poll done after the death of LKY)
May 15 79%
Jun 15 79%
Jul 15 76%

Once the distortion from the chart has been removed, it can be seen the numbers tend to be fairly stable over time. The only blip occurred in Apr 2015 after the death of LKY. Since the the numbers have fallen back to the pre-LKY range of around 76%

The stability of the numbers suggest that for its sound and fury, the AHPETC saga did not have much impact. LKY's death had a impact but this impact appears to have largely evaporated.

The outcome of GE 2015 is therefore going to be largely determined by the demographic change enveloping Singapore. This demographic change is the rise to demographic majority of Singaporeans born after 1965. Such Singaporeans would have turned 25 in 1990 and entered the work force. They will be the first generation to have experienced all of the PAP policy mistakes from the 1990s till now. The outcome is therefore pretty much carved in stone.

My prediction: The PAP vote share will drop to between 53% to 58%. The 2/3 majority is under threat for GE 2015. The Opposition will win between 25 to 35 seats.

Aftermath of GE 2015: The bigger battle will be after GE 2015. If the 2/3 majority is lost, the PAP will no longer have the ability to amend the Constitution. The paves the way for the election of a President who is unfriendly to the PAP and who can order an audit of the PAP.
 

GOD IS MY DOG

Alfrescian (Inf)
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Re: Final Poll before GE2015

if PAP votes drop to 53%................they still have 2/3 majority lah..........need to be no more than 51% realistically..........need 30 seats leh...
 

aurvandil

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Re: Final Poll before GE2015

WP is surging. Their brand equity has reach parity with the PAP. The vote swing towards them is likely to be between 8% to 10%.
With the exception of Macpherson SMC, there is a >50% chance they will win all other contests, giving WP 27 seats in Parliament.

The other parties have yet to catch fire. Their vote swing, if any, if likely to be between 3% to 5%.
With the exception of Potong Pasir, there is a > 50% chance the PAP will be able to retain the other seats.

Whether the PAP can retain their 2/3 majority will come down to Holland Bukit Timah. This GRC is led by an unpopular Minister who launched numerous attacks on WP via NEA. The SDP team there is led by CSJ and includes Paul Tambayn. This GRC is the best chance for SDP to make a breakthrough. Their numbers are just slightly below the 50% and they are close enough to convert this to a win.
 
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silverv

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Re: Final Poll before GE2015

WP is surging. Their brand equity has reach parity with the PAP. The vote swing towards them is likely to be between 8% to 10%.
With the exception of Macpherson SMC, there is a >50% chance they will win all other contests, giving WP 27 seats in Parliament.

The other parties have yet to catch fire. Their vote swing, if any, if likely to be between 3% to 5%.
With the exception of Potong Pasir, there is a > 50% chance the PAP will be able to retain the other seats.

Whether the PAP can retain their 2/3 majority will come down to Holland Bukit Timah. This GRC is led by an unpopular Minister who launched numerous attacks on WP via NEA. The SDP team there is led by CSJ and includes Paul Tambayn. This GRC is the best chance for SDP to make a breakthrough. Their numbers are just slightly below the 50% and they are close enough to convert this to a win.

Any update on the odd ?
 

GOD IS MY DOG

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

my latest predictions after all rallies...............final projections



SURE WIN
-----------
Fengshan - 1
Hougang - 1
Punggol East - 1
Potong Pasir - 1
Aljunied GRC - 5
East Coast GRC - 4


LIKELY TO WIN
----------------
Sengkang West - 1
MacPherson - 1
Marine Parade GRC - 5



POSSIBLE TO WIN
-------------------
Jalan Besar GRC - 4
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC - 5
Holland-Bt Timah GRC - 4
Nee Soon GRC - 5
 

Charlie99

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Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

Thank you for your latest predictions.

I wish, hope and pray that the following [Likely to Win] and [Possible to Win] turn into WIN's for the non-PAP candidates:
Sengkang West
Marine Parade GRC
Jalan Besar GRC
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC
 

GOD IS MY DOG

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC

Thank you for your latest predictions.

I wish, hope and pray that the following [Likely to Win] and [Possible to Win] turn into WIN's for the non-PAP candidates:
Sengkang West
Marine Parade GRC
Jalan Besar GRC
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC



hope so lah.............but i expect 20 Opposition MPs............minimum..........
 

GOD IS MY DOG

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