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PRC New Citizen Li Yeming: Is S’pore Ready To Change Govt?

xingguy

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Source: TR EMERITUS

Li Yeming: Is S’pore ready to change govt?
December 19th, 2014 | Author: Online Press

li-yeming2-209x300.jpg

Former PRC Li Yeming

Editor’s note: TRE has published Mr Li’s article in full without censorship.

<< 换政府?你准备好了吗?>>

2014-12-17,刊于《联合早报》(刊出时,部分内容被删节)


日前,李显龙总理在人民行动党干部大会上称,来届大选将是一场极其严峻的决战,大选决定的不只是反对党拿下多少国会议席,而是攸关谁将组织政府。因此他告诫全党不能轻敌,呼呼党员要努力为行动党发声,深入基层,了解民心,争取选民的支持。

这番话,不但被认为是大选即将来临的信号,更像是吹响了战斗的号角。不过对于总理把来届大选形容为“决战”,称其攸关谁来执政,很多网民却不以为然,认为总理夸大了工人党的实力,有的干脆以“危言耸听”来形容。

《联合早报》社论则认为,总理的这番话不是危言耸听。该文以其国际视野,列举了不少国家发生突变,很多老牌执政党意外败选的事实,证明危机是真实存在的。不过,这篇社论的题目是《国人须有忧患意识》。什么叫忧患意识?简单说,就是居安思危。可是在我看来,居安思危和危言耸听,除了在褒贬上明显不同,两者对现状的基本判断却是一致的,那就是认为还算安全,没有太大问题。

行动党到底领先多少?

上届大选,行动党虽然丢掉一个集选区,得票率也明显下滑,但还是占60%之多。这个成绩在很多国家可算是大胜了。再看赢得的议席,行动党有81席。后来榜鹅东补选丢掉一席,剩下80席,可是与工人党的区区七席相比,还是占有绝对优势。这也是多数舆论认为,反对党要想在下届大选扳倒行动党,几乎没有可能的原因。

既然如此,那李总理的决战一说,岂不真成了危言耸听?

可我不这么认为。稍微分析一下上届大选的结果,其他多个反对党表现并没那么亮丽,有的得票率甚至出现下滑。只有工人党,除在堡垒选区后港大获全胜,在阿裕尼集选区赢的漂亮,在其他参选的所有选区,工人党的得票率也均超过41%;其中,如切单选区仅以微差落败。若是单以工人党参选的选区来比较,此长彼消,行动党的得票率就不是60%了,其对工人党的领先幅度会大幅缩水。

尤其在后来具有指标意义的榜鹅东补选,工人党派出的是在上届大选中落败,得票率在所有工人党候选人中排名垫底的李丽莲。结果,李丽莲在补选中出人意料地以得票率超出对手近11个百分点的傲人战绩胜出。

有舆论认为,李丽莲以上届大选得票最低的工人党候选人身份,在短短不到两年,就以大比分逆转获胜,靠的不是她个人的魅力或实力,而是工人党连战连胜的气势。如此说来,如果再选,工人党派出的候选人可能全数当选也不一定。

工人党上届共参选四个集选区、四个单选区,候选人共23位。如今,工人党不仅掌握更多资源,而且被越来越多人看好,这有利于吸引更多优秀人才加入。在来届大选中,工人党推出的候选人肯定不止23位。假如工人党能推出超过43名候选人,并且真的全部拿下,那就真的可以组织政府了。

不要忘了,新加坡实行的是选区制,工人党不需要在全国拿下超过50%的总票数,只需确保参选议席过半,就有赢得大选,把行动党拉下马的可能性。如果你担心工人党的新人没有经验,那新加坡的集选区制度,此时显然有助于工人党化解这一问题。

我想,这也是在榜鹅东补选获胜后,工人党支持者情绪高涨,喊出刘程强将是下届总理的原因。但刘程强本人在一次受访时明确表示,自己没有当总理的野心。他还认为,工人党目前仍处在问政阶段,还没有准备好当替代政府。工人党主席林瑞莲也表示,榜鹅东补选工人党之所以赢那么多,补选效应或是原因之一。

补选效应会持续吗?

什么是补选效应呢?我的理解是,由于补选不影响大局,不会导致换政府,因此选民在投票时毫无顾忌,会将任何对现状的不满,转化为对反对党的支持。尤其在2011年大选后,选民普遍认同工人党提出的第一世界国会的理念,并将行动党在大选后调整政策和执政理念所带来的好处,都归功于反对党的有效制衡。

对此,总理显然是了解的。所以他在行动党大会上强调,(未来)每个议席的选战都是大选,不是补选。他还说,这是有关我们能否继续拥有“第一世界政府”,而不是“第一世界国会”的一场大选。他说:当有人提起“第一世界国会”时,我们不明白这个说法的具体含义,但是当我们提到“第一世界国家”时,这样的国家就在我们眼前。

坦白讲,我认为总理的这些话,很难改变新加坡人对于第一世界国会的向往。在民主已成为普世价值,监督与制衡被认为是天经地义的今天,我相信多数选民会觉得,第一世界国会与第一世界政府或第一世界国家并不矛盾;相反,只有实现第一世界国会,其他两项才更有保障。

我相信很多新加坡人也明白第一世界国会的具体含义,基本上就是工人党提出的超过三分之一国会议席,这样有利于反对党进行有效监督。而从目前的席次来看,工人党连十分之一都没达到,所以选民会认为,反对党依然过于弱小,无论怎么支持,都不会有换政府之虞。所以他们仍可以毫无顾忌的投票给反对党。

这就类似于补选效应了。如果这一效应持续到来届大选,无论行动党交出怎样的成绩单,可能都无法换来选民的肯定。意外换政府的可能性也就大大增加了。虽然工人党曾经表示没有准备好做替代政府,那又怎样?就算现在再去问,工人党,你到底准备好了没有?我想工人党也不会回答你。难道声称自己准备好了,会更有助于他们赢得选票吗?我看恰恰相反。

我倒觉得,应该问一问的是选民自己,我们是否已经准备好让工人党执政?如果真的准备好了,那换政府就换政府吧。民主社会总会有那么一天。怕就怕选民还在认为,最好的投票策略是投给反对党,以便让行动党做的更多、更好。假如在这样的投票模式下,真的把政府给换掉了,而选民却还没有准备好,那恐怕就是在开民主的玩笑,或是被民主开了一次不大不小的玩笑。

作者:李叶明


2014-12-17

www.sgwritings.com/45


End Of Article​

Google Translation:

<< Change the government? Are you ready? >>

2014-12-17, published in the "Lianhe Zaobao" (when published, some of the content is truncated)

Recently, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at the People's Action Party cadres conference that the next general election will be a very tough battle, not just the number of congressional seats in elections the opposition won the decision, but who will organize the government stake. So he warned the party can not underestimate the enemy, whistling party members should strive to DAP vocal grassroots level, to understand the people, to win the support of voters.

Words, not only is considered a signal of the coming general election, more like a battle horn sounded. However, the general election for prime minister described as a "decisive battle", who called the death ruling, many users did not agree that the Prime Minister exaggerated the strength of the Workers' Party, some simply as "alarmist" to describe.

"Lianhe Zaobao," the editorial argued that the Prime Minister's remarks are not alarmist. In this paper, its international outlook, citing a number of countries, mutations, many of the old ruling unexpected defeat of the facts prove that the crisis is real. However, the editorial entitled "people should have a sense of crisis." What is the sense of urgency? Simply put, is vigilant. But in my opinion, be prepared and alarmist, in addition to the distinct appraise both the status of the basic judgment is consistent, that is considered fairly safe, there is no big problem.

DAP leader in the end how much?

The last election, the PAP lost a GRC though, the vote also marked decline, but still accounted for 60 percent. In many countries, this result can be regarded as a victory. Look to win seats, the PAP has 81 seats. Punggol East by-election later lost one seat, and the remaining 80 seats, compared with the Workers' Party but a mere seven seats, or has an absolute advantage. This is also the majority public opinion, the opposition in the next general election in order to bring down the PAP, almost no probable cause.

That being the case, a battle that Prime Minister Lee said, would not really become an alarmist?

But I do not think so. Little analysis of the results of the last election, and several other opposition parties did not show so bright, some votes even declined. Only the Workers 'Party, except in Hong Kong after the victory fort constituency in Aljunied Group Representation Constituency win pretty, in all other constituencies election, the Workers' Party of the vote were also more than 41%; of which, such as cutting the radio area only with millisecond defeat. If a single constituency Workers 'Party candidate to compare this long, Falling, Action Party vote is not 60%, and its leading range of the Workers' Party will be substantially diminished.

Especially in the later Punggol East by-election as an index, the Workers 'Party is sent in the last general election defeat, the votes bottom of the rankings in all the Workers' Party candidate in 李丽莲. As a result, 李丽莲 in surprise election to vote beyond the impressive record of nearly 11 percent of the opponent wins.

Some hold that the lowest number of votes over the next general election worker Li Lilian Party candidate status, in just less than two years, the reversal to win by a large margin, it relies not on her personal charm or strength, but the Workers' Party Lien Chan streak momentum. Having said that, if re-elected, the Workers' Party candidate might send the full elected not necessarily.

Workers' Party last election four GRC total, four radio area, a total of 23 candidates. Today, the Workers' Party not only have more resources, but more and more people are optimistic that this will attract more talented people to join. In the general election, the Workers' Party's candidate, certainly more than 23. If the Workers' Party to launch more than 43 candidates, and really all won, it would really be a government organization.

Do not forget, the constituency system practiced in Singapore, the National Workers' Party does not need to win more than 50% of the total votes, just make sure to run more than half the seats, there is to win the election, the possibility to unseat the PAP. If you are worried about the Workers 'Party of newcomers without experience, and that Singapore's GRC system, then clearly contributes to the Workers' Party to resolve this issue.

I think this is the Punggol East by-election after winning mood Workers' Party supporters shouted Low Thia Khiang will be the next prime minister of reasons. Low Thia Khiang but when I first interviewed made it clear that he did not become prime minister's ambitions. He also believes that the Workers' Party is still in the stage of politics, is not ready when the alternative government. Workers 'Party Chairman Sylvia Lim also said that the Workers' Party Punggol East by-election win as much reason, or reasons, one of the by-election effect.

Election effect will last?

What is the effect of it-election? My understanding is that, because the election does not affect the overall situation, the government does not lead to change, so voters at the polls with impunity, any dissatisfaction with the status quo will be transformed into support for the opposition. Especially after the 2011 general election, voters generally agree that the Workers' Party of the First World Congress proposed the idea, and the action of the party after the election adjustment policies and the benefits brought about by the concept of governance, thanks to the opposition of effective checks and balances.

In this regard, the Prime Minister is clearly aware of. So he's Action Party Congress stressed that (future) Each seat is the election campaign, not a by-election. He also said that this is related to our ability to continue to have the "first world government" instead of "First World Congress" in a general election. He said: When anyone mentions "First World Congress," we do not know the specific meaning of this statement, but when we talk about the "first world country" when this country is in front of us.

Frankly, I think the Prime Minister of these words, it is difficult to change the First World Congress for Singaporeans yearning. Has become the universal values of democracy, checks and balances are considered perfectly justified today, I believe the majority of voters will feel that the first World Congress of the First World governments or first world countries are not contradictory; on the contrary, only to achieve the first world Congress, the other two are more secure.

I believe many Singaporeans understand the specific meaning of the First World Congress, basically Workers' Party raised more than a third of parliamentary seats, which will help to effectively supervise the opposition. The seats from the current point of view, the Workers' Party did not reach even one tenth, so voters would think the opposition is still too weak, no matter how support, there will be no danger of the government of change. So they can still vote for the opposition with impunity.

This is similar to the effect of the election. If this effect continued coming general election, regardless of what action the party to hand over transcripts, voters might not return for sure. The possibility of unexpected change of government will be greatly increased. Although the Workers' Party has said that the government is not ready to make an alternative, but so what? Even now go ask the Workers' Party, in the end you ready yet? I think the Workers' Party will not answer you. Does claiming to be ready, and will also help them to win the votes it? I see the opposite.

I would think, is that voters should ask ourselves if we are ready to make the ruling Workers' Party? If you really ready, and that the government would change the government to change it. Democratic society there will always be one day. Afraid afraid of voters still believe that the best strategy is to vote for the opposition vote, so that the PAP do more and better. If in such voting patterns, really put the government to replace, while voters are still not ready, it is probably in the open democratic joke, or was a sort of open democracy joke.

Author: Lee Ye Ming
 

xingguy

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Asset
Source: Temasek Review

A Singaporean living in Taiwan replying to blog post made by PRC new citizen Li Ye Ming on "Are you ready to change Government in Singapore"

一位在台灣的新加坡人回復李葉明先生的部落格 “換政府?你准備好了嗎?”的發文

世界潮流,浩浩蕩蕩,順之者昌,逆之者亡

上月底,年輕的台灣選民狠狠地用他們手中的選票教訓了擁有實力與財力雄厚的國民黨。國民黨竟然在一夕間丟了五個縣市的執政權,在野的民進黨也在他們原有執政的縣市以更大的差距大敗國民黨的候選人。台灣的年輕世代告訴無力解決高失業率,薪金長期停滯增長,官商與權貴勾結的馬英九政府 “我們已經受夠了﹗”

台灣經歷了2000年首次政黨輪替,又於2008年見證了政黨再輪替。有了這兩次的先例,台灣的兩大政黨都更努力和謙卑的面對選民。

新加坡的三十五歲以下的年輕選民沒有他們長輩的“行動黨”的情結。他們是一群網路時代的務實派。他們已經察覺李顯龍總理掌權的十年,新加坡變得“國將不國”,官僚主義和腐敗開始入侵原本廉潔的政務官們。

葉明先生在文中提到“工人党連十分之一(的國會議席)都沒達到”何以論一個 “第一世界國會”? 上屆新加坡大選在野黨的得票率近40百分點可是得到的席次只有少於10百分點,試問葉明先生這樣的制度是否符合了一個“第一世界國會”?

民主政治的宗旨是任何一個領導人或政黨一旦施政與作風只要不符合選民的利益,都有被選下臺的可能。

查歷史,人民行動黨在上世紀五十年代末也是個在野黨。請問當時的新加坡人為何給一個毫無執政經驗的行動黨機會來帶領新加坡走向獨立建國?

政黨輪替在獅城何嘗不是好事?

Edward Lim
台灣台中市 敬上


End Of Article​

Reader's Translation:

Albert Tan
The Singaporean in Taiwan basically describe the politics in Taiwan, after 2 changes of govt, the political parties become more modest to serve the people, during the last Taiwan election, people vote out most of the KMT candidate to punish the Ma govt for not able to solve the high unemployment rate. He further said that it could be good for Singapore to change govt. He mentioned the younger generation has no emotion passion with PAP unlike the older generation. He rebutted the Chinese writer Yeming to say opposition has no experience in running the countries, it is the same thing for PAP 50 years ago and our parent let them take charge. So it is ok to change this govt too. "Hope the summary is good enough".

Edited and added by xingguy:
"葉明先生在文中提到“工人党連十分之一(的國會議席)都沒達到”何以論一個 “第一世界國會”? 上屆新加坡大選在野黨的得票率近40百分點可是得到的席次只有少於10百分點,試問葉明先生這樣的制度是否 符合了一個“第一世界國會”? "
Yeming also mentioned in his article that how can WP claim a "first world parliament" when they can't even obtain one tenth of the parliamentary seat? Let me ask Yeming, in the last GE, opposition has gotten 40% votes but gotten less than 10% parliamentary seats, does this system conforms to a "first world parliament"?
 
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makapaaa

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
This PRC FTrash cannot be more empathetic when it comes to understanding the 60% mindset. They will rather vote in more Yang Yin's and Yes Ming's than the Oppos.
 

Poomer

Alfrescian
Loyal
Bloody joker coming from communist China and extolling his views on our democracy.

Why don't he touch on the Mao or LKY's unparallel experience in running countries when they first became leaders?
 

ginfreely

Alfrescian
Loyal
What so difficult to change govt, especially one that is performing badly for the last 10 years? Civil service can do the day to day job. Better to have no PM than a lousy PM. At least won't anyhow open the Immigration flood gate.
 

master

Alfrescian
Loyal
knnbccb fuck his pap master recently keep talking about sg history on how they fought with the Communist. Then y now they let in so many Communist.

What the fuck does a Communist know about democracy to talk about it !!!
 
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