From Kicking Moon.
I am a Chinese working as a China analyst at a think tank. It is becoming more and more apparent to many people, that the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) knows it is on its last straw of survival.
The party is facing severe and increasing systematic stress on all fronts:
1. Increasing external oppositions from all other countries in the world including all of China's neighbours. They are forming more and more alliances and becoming more outspoken with rising strengths against China, in addition to increasing anti-China sentiment from people in all other countries. Even on these casual internet message boards, when you look past the paid Chinese propaganda professional commenters, you notice rising general anti-China feelings from all over the world.
2. Increasing internal severe and massive violent social unrest and anti-CCP mutiny from people of all Chinese living places e.g. mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Macau etc. To beat down internal dissent, the CCP every year is forced to spend even more money than on its massive military budget. This is continuously worsened by the free flow of information, with Chinese people knowing more and more from travelling abroad and learning about truths from jumping beyond the "Great Fire Wall" on the internet.
3. Its own economy never able to develop to higher level beyond mass skill-less manufacturing, due to complete absence of law and common morals. High technology and innovations and scientific development all require citizens working together long term in a system they trust, with things like rule of law, no restrictions on speech and expression, copyrights, patents, common morals when collaborating and trading with each other etc. These qualities are all destroyed in modern China by the CCP. When was the last time you heard an announcement of technology development or innovations or scientific breakthrough coming from a Chinese organization or company or university? You haven't because there ain't any. The only way modern China gets these things is from stealing and spying from all other countries, but that has become much more difficult since the whole world has caught on to their act. It is also why there is not even one Chinese brand or company that can compete in the international market in any industry of the human race.
4. China's mass skill-less manufacturing itself is going away to other countries due to increasing costs and openly hostile and unfair business environment full of frauds and sanctioned protectionism and government robberies. It is further worsened by the rise of robotic automatic manufacturing and 3D printing. This situation is a death knock to the "growth-based legitimacy" of the CCP, which is the only thing CCP can rely on for continuing ruling power. For sure Chinese people tolerate the CCP when the economy seemingly explodes, but when one day it crashes and the country's hopeless bad shape hit them in the face the people's "support" for the CCP will turn on a dime.
Since six months ago, all the major economic indicators for China have gone on a nosedive - including manufacturing orders, export volume, commercial investments, corporate credits, foreign capital inflow, domestic consumptions, real estate prices, HSBC Service PMI, survey of business sentiments etc. The CCP is on its last resort of printing literally trillions of worthless renminbi to dump into the economy, causing way more long-term harm than short-term help, and when that is over there is nothing else the CCP can do to prop up the failing economy. China currently ranks 82nd on GDP per capita and that is the highest it can go before falling sharply in the coming near future.
5. Fierce unstoppable purges and mutually-destructive infighting among different factions within the party, who are imprisoning and killing each other every day. This power grab goes on under the thin guise of "anti-corruption drive" when everyone knows all officials in china are corrupted.
6. Its many suppressed fatal problems have all grown too big to be contained all breaking out at the same time e.g.
- severe carcinogenic poisonous pollution everywhere in air and water and soil and their own food etc
, with the WHO issuing warnings on Chinese population having the fastest cancer growth rate in the whole world
- skyrocketing unrepayable bad debts of all kinds everywhere, its true scope unknown because all data from China are faked
- biggest housing bubble in human history, in addition to innumerous crumbling "ghost cities" and shoddily-built infrastructure that cannot and will not be used
- rapidly aging and gender-lopsided demographics (from one child policy, culture of "leftover women", and many Chinese families killing their own daughters so as to chase boys)
- world's no.1 wealth inequality, with a Gini coefficient rivaling 18th century France just before the French revolution
- complete absence of soft power / cultural influence / social attraction, one result of which is minimal and sharply dwindling number of foreign professionals and tourists and students going to China
- all Chinese chasing foreign-brand goods and services while ditching low-quality poisonous Chinese-brands, dashing CCP's hope to build domestic consumption economy
- corruptions and fraud throughout the whole rotten core of a system
- desperate mass exodus in all levels of Chinese society to escape the country using emigration or study abroad or marriage to foreigners or plain old human smuggling, resulting in all able Chinese leaving taking huge amounts of talents and money out of the country
- the law of large numbers and the "middle-income trap" all work against the "growth-based legitimacy" CCP desperately needs for its survival
Most importantly, the CCP knows that if 1.4 billion Chinese learn about basic human qualities such as morals, truth, fairness, human rights, rule of law, freedom, universal values etc the CCP will be toppled very quickly. Therefore its brainwashing education and propaganda machine ensure a complete lack of morals and regard for laws in all Chinese. This results in failure in all basic aspects of human interactions with every modern Chinese, whether it is business trading / personal dealings / technology development / creating innovations / human communications / scientific research / artistic expressions / teamwork collaborations / academic exchange etc. An interesting example would be the Chinese reaction to this report - they are expected to dismiss this report as total rubbish and shout China will only get richer and stronger than all other countries, yet they will give no counter-arguments and they will make no acknowledgements to the complete lack of basic human qualities listed above in modern China.
Some people say China has economically developed a lot in past 30 years, but the truth is this "development" is actually debt borrowed against the future. After the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre of its own students, in order to stay in power and rob from the country, the CCP has made China a place with no law, no morals, no basis for future scientific or economic or social development, no other assets apart from money, no spiritual belief apart from money, no trust or cooperation among Chinese, no trust or goodwill from foreigners, no other country as friends, all resources sold away cheaply, entire environment and air and water and soil and food fatally polluted, no creativity or personal development for Chinese young people, a populus not allowed to know the truths and not allowed to say the truths.
The end result is that majority wealth of this "debt borrowed against the future" has gone to the 0.0000001% elite ruling class "princeling" CCP families (about 250 of them) who have already smuggled trillions of dollars abroad along with their U.S. passports and their own children (all Politburo members hold foreign passports, with U.S. and U.K. being the most favorite choice). For the CCP in 1989, 1.4 billion people is great asset when the country starts from nothing and you order them to do backbreaking mass manufacturing repetitive work 20 hours a day without workers protection of any kind. But in the 2014 borderless knowledge economy when that no longer works, 1.4 billion immoral and uncooperative and selfish and undeveloped and angry Chinese contained in a lawless system without any hopes of growth is very, very dangerous liability for the CCP.
All debts against the future have to be paid back - China is no exception. That moment may arrive a bit later than expected but it surely will come, as it has on 100% of occasions in human history. For China the moment has arrived to suffer the consequences for all its own chosen actions in past 30 years. All the festering fundamental systematic problems listed above and much more, are only getting worse and worse everyday until one day when the system can suddenly no longer bear.
Think USSR in 1989.
I am a Chinese working as a China analyst at a think tank. It is becoming more and more apparent to many people, that the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) knows it is on its last straw of survival.
The party is facing severe and increasing systematic stress on all fronts:
1. Increasing external oppositions from all other countries in the world including all of China's neighbours. They are forming more and more alliances and becoming more outspoken with rising strengths against China, in addition to increasing anti-China sentiment from people in all other countries. Even on these casual internet message boards, when you look past the paid Chinese propaganda professional commenters, you notice rising general anti-China feelings from all over the world.
2. Increasing internal severe and massive violent social unrest and anti-CCP mutiny from people of all Chinese living places e.g. mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Macau etc. To beat down internal dissent, the CCP every year is forced to spend even more money than on its massive military budget. This is continuously worsened by the free flow of information, with Chinese people knowing more and more from travelling abroad and learning about truths from jumping beyond the "Great Fire Wall" on the internet.
3. Its own economy never able to develop to higher level beyond mass skill-less manufacturing, due to complete absence of law and common morals. High technology and innovations and scientific development all require citizens working together long term in a system they trust, with things like rule of law, no restrictions on speech and expression, copyrights, patents, common morals when collaborating and trading with each other etc. These qualities are all destroyed in modern China by the CCP. When was the last time you heard an announcement of technology development or innovations or scientific breakthrough coming from a Chinese organization or company or university? You haven't because there ain't any. The only way modern China gets these things is from stealing and spying from all other countries, but that has become much more difficult since the whole world has caught on to their act. It is also why there is not even one Chinese brand or company that can compete in the international market in any industry of the human race.
4. China's mass skill-less manufacturing itself is going away to other countries due to increasing costs and openly hostile and unfair business environment full of frauds and sanctioned protectionism and government robberies. It is further worsened by the rise of robotic automatic manufacturing and 3D printing. This situation is a death knock to the "growth-based legitimacy" of the CCP, which is the only thing CCP can rely on for continuing ruling power. For sure Chinese people tolerate the CCP when the economy seemingly explodes, but when one day it crashes and the country's hopeless bad shape hit them in the face the people's "support" for the CCP will turn on a dime.
Since six months ago, all the major economic indicators for China have gone on a nosedive - including manufacturing orders, export volume, commercial investments, corporate credits, foreign capital inflow, domestic consumptions, real estate prices, HSBC Service PMI, survey of business sentiments etc. The CCP is on its last resort of printing literally trillions of worthless renminbi to dump into the economy, causing way more long-term harm than short-term help, and when that is over there is nothing else the CCP can do to prop up the failing economy. China currently ranks 82nd on GDP per capita and that is the highest it can go before falling sharply in the coming near future.
5. Fierce unstoppable purges and mutually-destructive infighting among different factions within the party, who are imprisoning and killing each other every day. This power grab goes on under the thin guise of "anti-corruption drive" when everyone knows all officials in china are corrupted.
6. Its many suppressed fatal problems have all grown too big to be contained all breaking out at the same time e.g.
- severe carcinogenic poisonous pollution everywhere in air and water and soil and their own food etc
, with the WHO issuing warnings on Chinese population having the fastest cancer growth rate in the whole world
- skyrocketing unrepayable bad debts of all kinds everywhere, its true scope unknown because all data from China are faked
- biggest housing bubble in human history, in addition to innumerous crumbling "ghost cities" and shoddily-built infrastructure that cannot and will not be used
- rapidly aging and gender-lopsided demographics (from one child policy, culture of "leftover women", and many Chinese families killing their own daughters so as to chase boys)
- world's no.1 wealth inequality, with a Gini coefficient rivaling 18th century France just before the French revolution
- complete absence of soft power / cultural influence / social attraction, one result of which is minimal and sharply dwindling number of foreign professionals and tourists and students going to China
- all Chinese chasing foreign-brand goods and services while ditching low-quality poisonous Chinese-brands, dashing CCP's hope to build domestic consumption economy
- corruptions and fraud throughout the whole rotten core of a system
- desperate mass exodus in all levels of Chinese society to escape the country using emigration or study abroad or marriage to foreigners or plain old human smuggling, resulting in all able Chinese leaving taking huge amounts of talents and money out of the country
- the law of large numbers and the "middle-income trap" all work against the "growth-based legitimacy" CCP desperately needs for its survival
Most importantly, the CCP knows that if 1.4 billion Chinese learn about basic human qualities such as morals, truth, fairness, human rights, rule of law, freedom, universal values etc the CCP will be toppled very quickly. Therefore its brainwashing education and propaganda machine ensure a complete lack of morals and regard for laws in all Chinese. This results in failure in all basic aspects of human interactions with every modern Chinese, whether it is business trading / personal dealings / technology development / creating innovations / human communications / scientific research / artistic expressions / teamwork collaborations / academic exchange etc. An interesting example would be the Chinese reaction to this report - they are expected to dismiss this report as total rubbish and shout China will only get richer and stronger than all other countries, yet they will give no counter-arguments and they will make no acknowledgements to the complete lack of basic human qualities listed above in modern China.
Some people say China has economically developed a lot in past 30 years, but the truth is this "development" is actually debt borrowed against the future. After the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre of its own students, in order to stay in power and rob from the country, the CCP has made China a place with no law, no morals, no basis for future scientific or economic or social development, no other assets apart from money, no spiritual belief apart from money, no trust or cooperation among Chinese, no trust or goodwill from foreigners, no other country as friends, all resources sold away cheaply, entire environment and air and water and soil and food fatally polluted, no creativity or personal development for Chinese young people, a populus not allowed to know the truths and not allowed to say the truths.
The end result is that majority wealth of this "debt borrowed against the future" has gone to the 0.0000001% elite ruling class "princeling" CCP families (about 250 of them) who have already smuggled trillions of dollars abroad along with their U.S. passports and their own children (all Politburo members hold foreign passports, with U.S. and U.K. being the most favorite choice). For the CCP in 1989, 1.4 billion people is great asset when the country starts from nothing and you order them to do backbreaking mass manufacturing repetitive work 20 hours a day without workers protection of any kind. But in the 2014 borderless knowledge economy when that no longer works, 1.4 billion immoral and uncooperative and selfish and undeveloped and angry Chinese contained in a lawless system without any hopes of growth is very, very dangerous liability for the CCP.
All debts against the future have to be paid back - China is no exception. That moment may arrive a bit later than expected but it surely will come, as it has on 100% of occasions in human history. For China the moment has arrived to suffer the consequences for all its own chosen actions in past 30 years. All the festering fundamental systematic problems listed above and much more, are only getting worse and worse everyday until one day when the system can suddenly no longer bear.
Think USSR in 1989.
