China's faster-than-expected military buildup has alarmed the United States and its Asian allies and could help the Pentagon gird
against deeper defense cuts threatened in some corners of Congress.
But even though the sophistication of China's People's Liberation Army has exceeded US military forecasts, there is a recognition
within the Pentagon that some of its most-cited conventional capabilities are still in their infancy.
The PLA is also still some way from mastering the ability to mount large joint force operations, which will be needed to make the
most of new found capabilities grabbing headlines.
The US military has spent the past decade of war honing joint operations that weave together teams and skills from across its
armed forces -- a hard-won but potent tool.
The US Navy's top intelligence officer warned before retiring earlier this year against overestimating Chinese military capabilities.
"I don't view them as 10 feet tall," Vice Admiral David Dorsett said. "Have we seen large joint sophisticated exercises? No ... They
are at the front end of developing their military capability."
At the same time, the US military believes China appears on track to field a modern, regionally focused military by 2020.
The US military's estimates of China offer a more mixed view. This year's assessment noted China's lack of operational experience
and large amounts of antiquated hardware but said the PLA was "steadily closing the technological gap with modern armed forces."
Dean Cheng, a China expert at the Heritage Foundation think-tank in Washington, said future Chinese advances like improvements
in its anti-ship ballistic missile would influence US risk assessments when deploying near its shores.
That is not to say China will be able to flat-out deny US access to nearby waters any time soon.
"Denial is a function of risk -- what level of risk are we willing to accept in order to do whatever it is we're going to do out there,"
Cheng said.
"Should we expect them to be much more competent 10 years from now than they are today? As long as their economy's robust,
absolutely."
Meanwhile, a comprehensive strategy to maintain the US edge in the Pacific will require investment, a tough challenge in an era of
budget cuts.
against deeper defense cuts threatened in some corners of Congress.
But even though the sophistication of China's People's Liberation Army has exceeded US military forecasts, there is a recognition
within the Pentagon that some of its most-cited conventional capabilities are still in their infancy.
The PLA is also still some way from mastering the ability to mount large joint force operations, which will be needed to make the
most of new found capabilities grabbing headlines.
The US military has spent the past decade of war honing joint operations that weave together teams and skills from across its
armed forces -- a hard-won but potent tool.
The US Navy's top intelligence officer warned before retiring earlier this year against overestimating Chinese military capabilities.
"I don't view them as 10 feet tall," Vice Admiral David Dorsett said. "Have we seen large joint sophisticated exercises? No ... They
are at the front end of developing their military capability."
At the same time, the US military believes China appears on track to field a modern, regionally focused military by 2020.
The US military's estimates of China offer a more mixed view. This year's assessment noted China's lack of operational experience
and large amounts of antiquated hardware but said the PLA was "steadily closing the technological gap with modern armed forces."
Dean Cheng, a China expert at the Heritage Foundation think-tank in Washington, said future Chinese advances like improvements
in its anti-ship ballistic missile would influence US risk assessments when deploying near its shores.
That is not to say China will be able to flat-out deny US access to nearby waters any time soon.
"Denial is a function of risk -- what level of risk are we willing to accept in order to do whatever it is we're going to do out there,"
Cheng said.
"Should we expect them to be much more competent 10 years from now than they are today? As long as their economy's robust,
absolutely."
Meanwhile, a comprehensive strategy to maintain the US edge in the Pacific will require investment, a tough challenge in an era of
budget cuts.
