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Thread: BE CAUTIOUS: Property market extracts from DBS Research

  1. #1
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    Default BE CAUTIOUS: Property market extracts from DBS Research

    Stay Sheltered: We expect a continued deflation in
    residential prices, and primary home sales to weaken to
    3,000-4,500 units in 2009. Within the office sector, we
    anticipate office rents and capital values to weaken by
    35% from the peak this year with softening demand and
    looming oversupply. In the near-term, property newsflow
    will likely be negative, with write-downs of office and
    residential landbank, potential defaults, distressed asset
    sales and slow take-up and launches


    Housing Stock and Vacancy Rates to Increase
    The net increase in housing stock over the next 3 years is
    expected to be significantly higher relative to the past 3 years
    given the strong primary sales registered in 2006 and 2007.
    However, pipeline completion numbers as released by URA
    have been coming off in recent quarters, indicating that
    developers have also gradually delayed completions. We expect
    these delays to continue to affect pipeline supply, given current
    tepid market conditions.

    Default of DPS Purchasers
    Another sector-related theme that is likely to garner attention
    in 2009 is the effect of the Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS)
    on the developers when their respective projects obtained
    TOP. Under the DPS, which was removed in October 2007,
    developers were allowed to offer to purchasers of
    uncompleted residential properties the option to defer the
    remainder of the progress payments (after the initial 20%
    downpayment) until the issue of TOP for the project.

    Remain Cautious as Bad News Yet to Materialise
    We continue to remain cautious on the property sector in
    the near-term. Much of the key risks that we had discussed
    – asset writedowns, negative job creation, sale of distressed
    assets – have yet to materialize and these should continue
    to weigh down the sector in coming months and hamper
    share outperformance.

  2. #2
    Join Date
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    Default Re: BE CAUTIOUS: Property market extracts from DBS Research

    dbs research belong to the junk heap.

    Sg property belong the the cateory of unassaialbe rise to unprecedented levels as it welcomes FT to the 10 M watermark.

    When mumbai got bombed, the equations of property investment in sg changed.

    Imagine what would happen if NS is scrapped. Immediately , property counters would triple the next day.

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